Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2022
Flood Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Feb 21, 2022, 1:46 PM EST for 12 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 22, 2022, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 27 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 21, 2022, 1:46 PM EST (18:46 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 22, 2022, 1:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Feb 23, 2022, 4:26 PM EST
- In force
- 27 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 63 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1145 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 52 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 47 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 240 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
774
WGUS61 KBUF 211846
FFABUF
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
146 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022
.Flows on area creeks and rivers are already running high from
recent rainfall. Additional rainfall and snow melt during Tuesday
and Tuesday night will cause flows to increase and may result in
flooding.
NYZ007-008-220300-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0002.220222T1800Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
146 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snow melt is possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson and Lewis.
* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...A combination of rain and snow melt will cause flows to
increase on the Black River and it's tributaries late Tuesday
through Wednesday. Flows are already high, and there are ice jams
in place on some waterways. This will bring the risk of flooding
along the Black River and its tributaries due to high flows or ice
jams.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Between an inch and an inch and a half of rain is expected
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. This combined with
warm weather will result in snow melt, with a deep and primed
snow pack in place across the Black River basin. This will
cause rises on the Black River, Moose River, Independence
River, Beaver River as well as other tributaries. There is a
risk of flooding due to high flows or ice jams.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-220300-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0002.220222T1800Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown,
Buffalo, and Warsaw
146 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston,
Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.
* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...Flows are already high on many area creeks and rivers,
and the combination of snow melt from warm weather and rainfall on
Tuesday and Tuesday night will cause water levels to rise again.
This will bring the risk of flooding along some rivers and creeks
due to high flows.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Between a half inch and an inch of rain is expected Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday night. This combined with warm
weather will result in snow melt, with a primed snow pack in
place across the headwaters for most creeks and rivers in the
watch area. This will result in rises on larger creeks and
rivers, and potentially will cause flooding at some flood
prone areas.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Apffel7 follow-up statements
308
WGUS61 KBUF 220254
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
954 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022
.Flows on area creeks and rivers are already running high from
recent rainfall. Additional rainfall and snow melt during Tuesday
and Tuesday night will cause flows to increase and may result in
flooding.
NYZ007-008-221100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.220222T1800Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
954 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snow melt is possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson and Lewis.
* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...A combination of rain and snow melt will cause flows to
increase on the Black River and it's tributaries late Tuesday
through Wednesday. Flows are already high, and there are ice jams
in place on some waterways. This will bring the risk of flooding
along the Black River and its tributaries due to high flows or ice
jams.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Between an inch and an inch and a half of rain is expected
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. This combined with
warm weather will result in snow melt, with a deep and primed
snow pack in place across the Black River basin. This will
cause rises on the Black River, Moose River, Independence
River, Beaver River as well as other tributaries. There is a
risk of flooding due to high flows or ice jams.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-221100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.220222T1800Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown,
Buffalo, and Warsaw
954 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston,
Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.
* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...Flows are already high on many area creeks and rivers,
and the combination of snow melt from warm weather and rainfall on
Tuesday and Tuesday night will cause water levels to rise again.
This will bring the risk of flooding along some rivers and creeks
due to high flows.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Between a half inch and an inch of rain is expected Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday night. This combined with warm
weather will result in snow melt, with a primed snow pack in
place across the headwaters for most creeks and rivers in the
watch area. This will result in rises on larger creeks and
rivers, and potentially will cause flooding at some flood
prone areas.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
TMA639
WGUS61 KBUF 220908
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
408 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022
.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical
levels.
NYZ007-008-221800-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.220222T1800Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
408 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snow melt is possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson and Lewis.
* WHEN...From 1 PM EST this afternoon through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...A combination of rain and snow melt will cause flows to
increase on the Black River and it's tributaries late today
through Wednesday. Flows are already high, and there are ice jams
in place on some waterways. This will bring the risk of flooding
along the Black River and its tributaries due to high flows or ice
jams.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Between an inch and an inch and a half of rain is expected
this afternoon through tonight. This combined with warm
weather will result in snow melt, with a deep and primed snow
pack in place across the Black River basin. This will cause
rises on the Black River, Moose River, Independence River,
Beaver River as well as other tributaries. There is a risk of
flooding due to high flows or ice jams.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-221800-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.220222T1800Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown,
Buffalo, and Warsaw
408 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston,
Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.
* WHEN...From 1 PM EST this afternoon through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...Flows are already high on many area creeks and rivers,
and the combination of snow melt from warm weather and rainfall
today and tonight will cause water levels to rise again. This will
bring the risk of flooding along some rivers and creeks due to
high flows.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Between a half inch and an inch of rain is expected this
afternoon through tonight. This combined with warm weather
will result in snow melt, with a primed snow pack in place
across the headwaters for most creeks and rivers in the watch
area. This will result in rises on larger creeks and rivers,
and potentially will cause flooding at some flood prone
areas.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
RSH159
WGUS61 KBUF 221559
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1059 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022
.Flows on area creeks and rivers are already running high from
recent rainfall. Additional rainfall and snow melt today and tonight
will cause flows to increase and may result in flooding.
NYZ007-008-230100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.220222T1800Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1059 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snow melt is possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson and Lewis.
* WHEN...Through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...A combination of rain and snow melt will cause flows to
increase on the Black River and it's tributaries late today
through Wednesday. Flows are already high, and there are ice jams
in place on some waterways. This will bring the risk of flooding
along the Black River and its tributaries due to high flows or ice
jams.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Between an inch and an inch and a half of rain is expected
this afternoon through tonight. This combined with warm
weather will result in snow melt, with a deep and primed snow
pack in place across the Black River basin. This will cause
rises on the Black River, Moose River, Independence River,
Beaver River as well as other tributaries. There is a risk of
flooding due to high flows or ice jams.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-230100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.220222T1800Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown,
Buffalo, and Warsaw
1059 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston,
Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.
* WHEN...Through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...Flows are already high on many area creeks and rivers,
and the combination of snow melt from warm weather and rainfall
today and tonight will cause water levels to rise again. This will
bring the risk of flooding along some rivers and creeks due to
high flows.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Between a half inch and an inch of rain is expected this
afternoon through tonight. This combined with warm weather
will result in snow melt, with a primed snow pack in place
across the headwaters for most creeks and rivers in the watch
area. This will result in rises on larger creeks and rivers,
and potentially will cause flooding at some flood prone
areas.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Apffel504
WGUS61 KBUF 230047
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
747 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022
.Flows on area creeks and rivers are already running high from
recent rainfall. Additional rainfall and snow melt through tonight
will cause flows to increase and may result in flooding.
NYZ007-008-230945-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
747 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snow melt is possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson and Lewis.
* WHEN...Through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...A combination of rain and snow melt will cause flows to
increase on the Black River and it's tributaries through
Wednesday. Flows are already high, and there are ice jams in place
on some waterways. This will bring the risk of flooding along the
Black River and its tributaries due to high flows or ice jams.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Between an inch and an inch and a half of rain is expected
through tonight. This combined with warm weather will result
in snow melt, with a deep and primed snow pack in place
across the Black River basin. This will cause rises on the
Black River, Moose River, Independence River, Beaver River as
well as other tributaries. There is a risk of flooding due to
high flows or ice jams.
- Http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-230945-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown,
Buffalo, and Warsaw
747 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston,
Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.
* WHEN...Through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...Flows are already high on many area creeks and rivers,
and the combination of snow melt from warm weather and rainfall
through tonight will cause water levels to rise again. This will
bring the risk of flooding along some rivers and creeks due to
high flows.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Between a half inch and an inch of rain is expected through
tonight. This combined with warm weather will result in snow
melt, with a primed snow pack in place across the headwaters
for most creeks and rivers in the watch area. This will
result in rises on larger creeks and rivers, and potentially
will cause flooding at some flood prone areas.
- Http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
SJW917
WGUS61 KBUF 230907
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
407 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022
NYZ007-008-231715-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
407 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by the past 24 hours of rain and snowmelt
continues to be possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson and Lewis.
* WHEN...Through this evening.
* IMPACTS...A combination of Tuesdays rain and snow melt will cause
flows to increase on the Black River and it's tributaries through
today. Flows are already high, and there are ice jams in place on
some waterways. This will bring the risk of flooding along the
Black River and its tributaries due to high flows or ice jams.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- A half to one inch of rain that fell over the region late
Tuesday and Tuesday night, combined with snow melt from
temperatures that climbed into the 50s, will likely lead to
significant runoff into area tributaries. This will result in
rises on creeks and streams, and potentially will cause
flooding at some flood prone areas.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-231715-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown,
Buffalo, and Warsaw
407 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by Tuesdays rain and snowmelt continues to
be possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston,
Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.
* WHEN...Through this evening.
* IMPACTS...Flows are already high on many area creeks and rivers,
and the combination of snow melt from Tuesdays warm weather and
rainfall will cause water levels to rise again. This will bring
the risk of flooding along some rivers and creeks due to high
flows.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- A half to one inch of rain that fell over the region on
Tuesday, combined with snow melt from 50 degree temperatures,
has led to significant runoff into area tributaries. This
will result in rises on larger creeks and rivers, and
potentially will cause flooding at some flood prone areas.
- Http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
RSH546
WGUS61 KBUF 231502
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1002 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022
.The combination of high flows leading into this event, recent
rainfall, and run-off from snow melt may cause a few rivers and
creeks to exceed bankfull.
NYZ007-008-240000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1002 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson and Lewis.
* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.
* IMPACTS...A combination of Tuesdays rain and snow melt will cause
flows to increase on the Black River and it's tributaries through
today. Flows are already high, and there are ice jams in place on
some waterways. This will bring the risk of flooding along the
Black River and its tributaries due to high flows or ice jams.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- A half to and inch and a half of rain that fell over the
region late Tuesday and Tuesday night, combined with snow
melt from temperatures that climbed into the 50s, will likely
lead to significant runoff into area tributaries. This will
result in rises on creeks and streams, and potentially will
cause flooding at some flood prone areas.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-240000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220224T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown,
Buffalo, and Warsaw
1002 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston,
Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.
* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.
* IMPACTS...Flows are already high on many area creeks and rivers,
and the combination of snow melt from Tuesdays warm weather and
rainfall will cause water levels to rise again. This will bring
the risk of flooding along some rivers and creeks due to high
flows.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- A half to one inch of rain that fell over the region on
Tuesday, combined with snow melt from 50 degree temperatures,
has led to significant runoff into area tributaries. This
will result in rises on larger creeks and rivers, and
potentially will cause flooding at some flood prone areas.
- Http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Apffel449 WGUS61 KBUF 232126 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 426 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 NYZ001>003-007-008-010>013-019>021-085-232230- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220224T0000Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- Livingston-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara Falls, Batavia, Medina, Watertown, Lowville, Wellsville, Springville, Olean, Jamestown, Buffalo, and Warsaw 426 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flood Watch is cancelled for portions of central New York and western New York, including the following areas, in central New York, Jefferson and Lewis. In western New York, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming. The Flood Watch has been replaced by flood warnings for some individual rivers and creeks which are flooding or will flood. Please follow existing road closures. Outside of the warnings in place, no additional flooding is expected. $$ Apffel
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Feb 21, 1:13 PM EST, 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 21, 1:13 PM EST, 33 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
113 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally fair weather will be found across the region this
afternoon with the western counties experiencing afternoon
temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A storm system
taking shape over the southern plains tonight will then approach
our forecast area from the southwest on Tuesday. This will
result in another soaking rain for our region with more snow
melt combining with the rain to aggravate already swollen
tributaries. The risk for more flooding will be elevated along
these tributaries.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front located near the south shores of Lake Ontario early
this afternoon will continue to move southward through this
evening. There will be clouds along and north of the front, but
radar shows that the front is not producing any precipitation.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side south of the front
with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s south of Lake Ontario.
Strong shortwave energy crossing the inter-mountain region tonight
will serve to enhance cyclogenesis in the central plains while also
encouraging a burgeoning of the upper level ridge over the eastern
conus. The latter will help to push the aforementioned frontal
boundary back to the north into Canada...leaving our forecast area
solidly in a warm sector with H85 temps by daybreak within a couple
degrees of 6c. This will keep near sfc temps over the western
counties generally abv freezing. In terms of pcpn...there will only
be a minimal chance for some meager light snow in the Thousand
islands region early and a bit of light rain in parts of the Srn
Tier towards morning.
On Tuesday...a large storm system in the vcnty of northern Missouri
will track northeast to about Lake Huron by nightfall. Moderately
strong isentropic lift ahead of this approaching system will act
upon a deepening moisture field being fed by a 50kt low level jet to
generate fairly widespread steady over our forecast area. The
steady rain will overspread the far western counties early Tuesday
morning and the remainder of western and north central New York
during the late morning and midday. The steadiest most significant
rainfall will come during the course of the afternoon. Forecast
rainfall for Tuesday will range from a third of an inch over the
Finger Lakes region and Lake Ontario lake plains (where southerly
downsloping will clip some 25% off totals) to over a half inch over
the far western counties to nearly an inch on the southern slopes of
the Tug (enhanced by upslope flow).
This rainfall...along with snow melt from max temps in the mid to
upper 50s...will enter still swollen tributaries. While the risk for
areal flooding will be lower than the event from last week (due to
less snowpack/lower QPF and lack of river ice)...the run off will
likely elevate the risk for flooding along tributaries.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...Rain into Tuesday night Will Aggravate Swollen Tributaries
During This Period...
Tuesday night will feature widespread rain tapering to scattered
showers through the night as deeper moisture tied to 50kt low-level
jet exits eastward. Additional rainfall on Tuesday night will mostly
be less than 0.25 inch western and central NY with amounts of 0.25
to 0.50 inch east of Lake Ontario, locally higher over higher
terrain with southerly upslope orographic enhancement. Temperatures
will stay steady in the lower 50s early Tuesday evening with
dewpoints in the 40s, before falling after midnight from west to
east. Temps over far western NY may drop low enough to allow light
mix of rain/snow toward daybreak. The rainfall from the system
along with snowmelt from the warm temps and above freezing dewpoints
added to the high flows from recent rainfall will result in a risk
for some flooding later Tuesday into Wednesday. More on that in
the Hydrology discussion section.
Non-diurnal temperature trends Wednesday with a cold front moving
across the region from west to east Wednesday morning. Morning highs
in the 30s and lower 40s will drop into the upper 20s by late
Wednesday afternoon. Colder air aloft will support a lake response
later Wednesday afternoon/evening with 850mb temps dropping to
about -15c. Lake effect snow likely to develop south and southeast
of Lake Ontario producing some accumulating snows before ending
late Wednesday night. Inversions will be rather low at less than
5kft, but all of the convective layer will be in the DGZ, so fluffy
snow could quickly pile up if bands are persistent. Advisory level
snows not out of the question. Little, if any lake response is
expected across primarily ice covered Lake Erie.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough pushing down the western US this afternoon
will form a deep trough over the Southwest US early this week that
will eventually deepen a surface low over the southern Plains, a low
that will bring the next round of snow and wintry mix to our region
Thursday Night and Friday.
The track of this surface low continues to be across central
portions of PA/NY with the 12Z GFS a bit farther westward than the
00Z ECMWF and 00Z Canadian. A look at the GEFS ensembles displays a
warm layer that could sneak into the Southern Tier and southern
Genesee Valley late Thursday Night and Friday. Will have a mix of
precipitation here, before snow returns Friday as conveyor belt of
cold air pushes back into the region. Several inches of snow
accumulation is possible, along with light icing possible across the
Southern Tier.
This system will pull out of the region Friday, with lake effect
snow following on a northwest wind. The lake snows could continue
through Saturday or Saturday Night edging northward as surface high
pressure builds in towards the region and boundary layer winds back.
Model uncertainty increases Sunday and Monday with the timing of a
shortwave crossing the Plains, and it's interaction with a deepening
northern branch trough over the Great Lakes. Chances for snow Sunday
and Monday, with likely much colder air returning for the final day
of February.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist across the bulk of the region this
afternoon, although some MVFR strato-cu will be possible at
KROC/KIAG and KART through early evening.
Most of the TAF sites will maintain their VFR weather tonight.
LLWS will develop tonight and last into Tuesday as a LLJ moves
in aloft but winds fail to mix to the surface.
Rain will move in Tuesday morning from west to east with cigs
lowering to MVFR. Cigs will gradually lower to mainly IFR
Tuesday afternoon as moderate rain moves in.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR. Rain.
Wednesday...MVFR. Chance of rain and snow showers.
Wednesday Night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in
lake effect snow showers.
Thursday Night through Friday...MVFR/IFR. Snow likely, possibly
mixed with sleet at times.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with localized IFR in lake effect snow
shower east of the lakes.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will increase this afternoon as a cold front pushes south
of Lake Ontario. This will lead to small craft advisory
conditions late today and for at lest the first half of tonight
for the nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay.
Meanwhile...generally light winds will remain in place on Lake
Erie.
Winds will veer to the south on both Lakes Erie and Ontario on
Tuesday...as a large area of low pressure will track from Missouri
to Lake Huron. While winds will freshen somewhat...the offshore flow
should keep the highest wave action in Canadian waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The only river flood remaining at the time of the writing of this
discussion was Tonawanda Creek at Rapids. The creek is cresting
this morning.
Looking ahead, there will be another storm system Tuesday which will
produce widespread rainfall along with above normal temperatures.
Despite recent snow melt, there is still quite a bit of snow pack
in place. NOHRSC site shows Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) basin
averages of 1-2 inches in the Buffalo creeks and Allegheny basins,
around an inch in the Genesee Basin, and 2-4 inches in the Black
River Basin. Noticed a SWE measurement of 2.8 inches at Warsaw
(Wyoming County) on Sunday.
The previous storm system flushed out most of the ice on the
Buffalo Creeks, with a much diminished risk for ice jams. There
are some ice jams on the Black River and its tributaries, but
these tend to be in rural locations and less likely to impact
any structures.
Rainfall amounts Tuesday are forecast to average between a half
and three quarters of an inch. With flows running high due to recent
rain, it will not take much to push some rivers and creeks back to
flood stage. River forecast ensembles are showing a 30-50% risk of
reaching flood stage in some basins. Not quite enough confidence
to issue a Flood Watch, but there are elevated hydro concerns for
Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
Tuesday for LOZ043.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
Tuesday for LOZ042.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Apffel/EAJ
MARINE...Apffel/RSH
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/RSHHazardous weather outlook, Feb 21, 3:52 AM EST, 9 hours 54 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 352 AM EST Mon Feb 21 2022 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-220900- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 352 AM EST Mon Feb 21 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a potential for flooding on Tuesday and Wednesday. This is due to high flows from recent rainfall, warm temperatures and associated run-off from melting snow, and a system which is expected to bring between a half inch and three quarters of an inch of rain on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-220900- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 352 AM EST Mon Feb 21 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf JLA
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 4:32 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 26 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.