Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

155 
WGUS61 KBUF 151548
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1048 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.220217T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara 
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown, 
Buffalo, and Warsaw
1048 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  The greatest threat for flooding will be in ice jam prone areas, 
  such as the Buffalo area creeks and near Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus 
  creek. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding 
  may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Significant warming ahead of a slow moving cold front will
    result in a major melt down of a large portion of the
    extensive snow pack over the region. While this warming will
    begin on Wednesday, melt water is not forecast to reach the
    tributaries until Wednesday evening. A storm system will then
    track out of the Ohio valley late Wednesday night and
    Thursday...reaching our forecast area Thursday evening. This
    system is forecast to generate a half to one and a half
    inches of rain over western New York...most of which will
    come from midday Thursday into Thursday evening. The
    combination of the significant rainfall and extensive snow
    melt will result in at LEAST major rises on area tributaries.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop. This is especially the case 
for those living in ice jam prone areas along the Buffalo area 
creeks and Cattaraugus creek. Others that have experienced ice jam 
flooding in the past should also be extra vigilant during this 
period.

&&

$$

RSH

863 
WGUS61 KBUF 152349
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
649 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt 
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical 
levels.

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-160800-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.220217T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara 
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown, 
Buffalo, and Warsaw
649 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  The greatest threat for flooding will be in ice jam prone areas, 
  such as the Buffalo area creeks and near Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus 
  creek. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding 
  may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Significant warming ahead of a slow moving cold front will
    result in a major melt down of a large portion of the
    extensive snow pack over the region. While this warming will
    begin on Wednesday, melt water is not forecast to reach the
    tributaries until Wednesday evening. A storm system will then
    track out of the Ohio valley late Wednesday night and
    Thursday...reaching our forecast area Thursday evening. This
    system is forecast to generate a half to one and a half
    inches of rain over western New York...most of which will
    come from midday Thursday into Thursday evening. The
    combination of the significant rainfall and extensive snow
    melt will result in at LEAST major rises on area tributaries.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop. This is especially the case
for those living in ice jam prone areas along the Buffalo area 
creeks and Cattaraugus creek. Others that have experienced ice jam 
flooding in the past should also be extra vigilant during this 
period.

&&

$$

DRT

059 
WGUS61 KBUF 160217
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
917 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt 
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical 
levels.

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-161030-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.220217T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara 
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown, 
Buffalo, and Warsaw
917 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  The greatest threat for flooding will be in ice jam prone areas, 
  such as the Buffalo area creeks and near Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus 
  creek. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding 
  may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Significant warming ahead of a slow moving cold front will
    result in a major melt down of a large portion of the
    extensive snow pack over the region. While this warming will
    begin on Wednesday, melt water is not forecast to reach the
    tributaries until Wednesday evening. A storm system will then
    track out of the Ohio valley late Wednesday night and
    Thursday...reaching our forecast area Thursday evening. This
    system is forecast to generate a half to one and a half
    inches of rain over western New York...most of which will
    come from midday Thursday into Thursday evening. The
    combination of the significant rainfall and extensive snow
    melt will result in at LEAST area creeks and rivers to rise
    to near bankfull, if not exceed bankfull.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop. This is especially the case
for those living in ice jam prone areas along the Buffalo area 
creeks and Cattaraugus creek. Others that have experienced ice jam 
flooding in the past should also be extra vigilant during this 
period.

&&

$$

DRT

291 
WGUS61 KBUF 160812
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
312 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

.The combination of run-off from snow melt and rain will cause 
levels on creeks and rivers to rise, potentially resulting in 
flooding.

NYZ004>008-014-161615-
/O.EXB.KBUF.FA.A.0001.220217T1500Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Watertown, Oswego, Newark, Lowville, Fair 
Haven, and Canandaigua
312 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Ontario and Wayne.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Warm weather through Thursday will result in significant
    melting of the extensive snow pack over the region. A storm
    system will generate between an inch and inch and two inches
    of rain over north-central New York, most of which will come
    from midday Thursday into Thursday evening. The combination
    of the significant rainfall and extensive snow melt may cause
    flooding along creeks and rivers.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-161615-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.220217T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara 
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown, 
Buffalo, and Warsaw
312 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...From this evening through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  The greatest threat for flooding will be in ice jam prone areas, 
  such as the Buffalo area creeks and near Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus 
  creek. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding 
  may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Warm weather through Thursday will result in significant
    melting of the extensive snow pack over the region. A storm
    system will generate between an inch and inch and a half of
    rain over western New York, most of which will come from
    midday Thursday into Thursday evening. The combination of the
    significant rainfall and extensive snow melt may cause
    flooding along creeks and rivers.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop. This is especially the case
for those living in ice jam prone areas along the Buffalo area 
creeks and Cattaraugus creek. Others that have experienced ice jam 
flooding in the past should also be extra vigilant during this 
period.

&&

$$

Apffel

662 
WGUS61 KBUF 161455
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
955 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

.Heavy rain may fall on a deep primed snowpack leading to the melt 
increasing. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach critical 
levels.

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-162300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.220217T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara 
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown, 
Buffalo, and Warsaw
955 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is possible.

* WHERE...Much of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Monroe, Niagara, Erie, Orleans, and Wyoming.

* WHEN...From 7 PM EST this evening through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...There is increasing confidence that excessive runoff may 
  result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying 
  and flood-prone locations. The greatest threat for flooding will 
  be in ice jam prone areas, such as the Buffalo area creeks and 
  near Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus creek. Creeks and streams may rise 
  out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban 
  areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Warm weather through Thursday will result in significant
    melting of the extensive snow pack over the region. A storm
    system will generate between an inch and inch and a half of
    rain over western New York, most of which will come from
    midday Thursday through Thursday evening. The combination of
    the significant rainfall and extensive snow melt may cause
    flooding along creeks and rivers.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop. This is especially the case
for those living in ice jam prone areas along the Buffalo area 
creeks and Cattaraugus creek. Others that have experienced ice jam 
flooding in the past should also be extra vigilant during this 
period.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-162300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.220217T1500Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Watertown, Oswego, Newark, Lowville, Fair 
Haven, and Canandaigua
955 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Ontario and Wayne.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Warm weather through Thursday will result in significant
    melting of the extensive snow pack over the region. A storm
    system will generate between an inch and inch and two inches
    of rain over north-central New York, most of which will come
    from midday Thursday into Thursday evening. The combination
    of the significant rainfall and extensive snow melt may cause
    flooding along creeks and rivers.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

RSH

494 
WGUS61 KBUF 162218
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
518 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

.The combination of run-off from snow melt and rain will cause 
levels on creeks and rivers to rise, potentially resulting in 
flooding.

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-170700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.220217T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara 
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown, 
Buffalo, and Warsaw
518 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...There is increasing confidence that excessive runoff may 
  result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying 
  and flood-prone locations. The greatest threat for flooding will 
  be in ice jam prone areas, such as the Buffalo area creeks and 
  near Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus creek. Creeks and streams may rise 
  out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban 
  areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Warm weather through Thursday will result in significant
    melting of the extensive snow pack over the region. A storm
    system will generate between an inch and inch and a half of
    rain over western New York, most of which will come from
    midday Thursday through Thursday evening. The combination of
    the significant rainfall and extensive snow melt may cause
    flooding along creeks and rivers.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop. This is especially the case
for those living in ice jam prone areas along the Buffalo area 
creeks and Cattaraugus creek. Others that have experienced ice jam 
flooding in the past should also be extra vigilant during this 
period.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-170700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.220217T1500Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Watertown, Oswego, Newark, Lowville, Fair 
Haven, and Canandaigua
518 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Ontario and Wayne.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Warm weather through Thursday will result in significant
    melting of the extensive snow pack over the region. A storm
    system will generate between an inch and inch and two inches
    of rain over north-central New York, most of which will come
    from midday Thursday into Thursday evening. The combination
    of the significant rainfall and extensive snow melt may cause
    flooding along creeks and rivers.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Apffel

556 
WGUS61 KBUF 170255
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
955 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

.The combination of run-off from snow melt and rain will cause 
levels on creeks and rivers to rise, potentially resulting in 
flooding.

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-171100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara 
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown, 
Buffalo, and Warsaw
955 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...There is increasing confidence that excessive runoff may 
  result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying 
  and flood-prone locations. The greatest threat for flooding will 
  be in ice jam prone areas, such as the Buffalo area creeks and 
  near Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus creek. Creeks and streams may rise 
  out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban 
  areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Ice will begin to break up on area creeks through Thursday
    morning, with a risk of ice jams at typically vulnerable
    locations. Then steadier rain will move in Thursday,
    resulting in more significant and widespread rises on area
    creeks and rivers. The system will generate between an inch
    and inch and a half of rain before changing over to snow and
    ending Thursday night. The greatest risk for flooding is
    Thursday night, when run-off from the rain and snow-melt will
    peak.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop. This is especially the case
for those living in ice jam prone areas along the Buffalo area 
creeks and Cattaraugus creek. Others that have experienced ice jam 
flooding in the past should also be extra vigilant during this 
period.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-171100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.220217T1500Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Watertown, Oswego, Newark, Lowville, Fair 
Haven, and Canandaigua
955 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Ontario and Wayne.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Warm weather through Thursday will result in significant
    melting of the extensive snow pack over the region. A storm
    system will generate between an inch and inch and two inches
    of rain over north-central New York, most of which will come
    from midday Thursday into Thursday evening. The combination
    of the significant rainfall and extensive snow melt may cause
    flooding along creeks and rivers.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Apffel

604 
WGUS61 KBUF 170848
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
348 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.The combination of widespread rain and rapid snowmelt will result 
in excessive runoff today and tonight. This will produce significant 
rises and potential flooding on area rivers, creeks, and in poor 
drainage areas.

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-171700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara 
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown, 
Buffalo, and Warsaw
348 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by runoff from widespread rain and rapid 
  snowmelt continues to be possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...There is increasing confidence that excessive runoff may 
  result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying 
  and flood-prone locations. The greatest threat for flooding will 
  be in ice jam prone areas, such as the Buffalo area creeks and 
  near Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus creek. Creeks and streams may rise 
  out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban 
  areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Ice will begin to break up on area creeks through this
    morning, with a risk of ice jams at typically vulnerable
    locations. Then steadier rain will move in later this
    morning, resulting in more significant and widespread rises
    on area creeks and rivers. The system will generate between
    an inch and inch and a half of rain before changing over to
    ice and snow this evening, then ending late tonight. The
    greatest risk for flooding is later today and tonight, when
    run-off from the rain and snow-melt will peak.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-171700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.220217T1500Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Watertown, Oswego, Newark, Lowville, Fair 
Haven, and Canandaigua
348 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive runoff from widespread rain 
  and rapid snowmelt continues to be possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Ontario and Wayne.

* WHEN...From 10 AM EST this morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Warm weather through today will result in significant melting
    of the extensive snow pack over the region. A storm system
    will generate between one and two inches of rain over north-
    central New York, most of which will come from midday today
    into this evening. The combination of the significant
    rainfall and extensive snow melt may cause flooding along
    creeks and rivers.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

529 
WGUS61 KBUF 171508
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1008 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.Moderate to heavy rain will continue to fall on a deep primed 
snowpack leading to the melt increasing. Flows in rivers are 
expected to increase quickly and reach critical levels.

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-172315-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara 
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown, 
Buffalo, and Warsaw
1008 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by runoff from widespread rain and rapid 
  snowmelt continues to be possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff from rain and snow melt may result in 
  flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and 
  flood-prone locations. The greatest threat for flooding will be in 
  ice jam prone areas, such as the Buffalo area creeks and near 
  Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus creek. Creeks and streams may rise out 
  of their banks.  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban 
  areas. Flood warnings have already been issued in some areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Ice will continue to break up on area creeks through the day,
    with a risk of ice jams at typically vulnerable locations.
    Then steadier rain will continue through the day, resulting
    in more significant and widespread rises on area creeks and
    rivers. The system will generate between an inch and inch and
    a half of rain before changing over to ice and snow this
    evening, then ending late tonight.

    The greatest risk for flooding is later today and tonight,
    when run-off from the rain and snow melt will peak.
  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop. This is especially the case
for those living in ice jam prone areas along the Buffalo area 
creeks and Cattaraugus creek. Others that have experienced ice jam 
flooding in the past should also be extra vigilant during this 
period.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-172315-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Watertown, Oswego, Newark, Lowville, Fair 
Haven, and Canandaigua
1008 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive runoff from widespread rain 
  and rapid snowmelt continues to be possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Ontario and Wayne.

* WHEN...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Warm weather through today will result in significant melting
    of the extensive snow pack over the region. A storm system
    will generate between one and two inches of rain over north-
    central New York, most of which will occur through late this
    evening. The combination of the significant rainfall and
    extensive snow melt may cause flooding along creeks and
    rivers.
  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

JLA

748 
WGUS61 KBUF 172151
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
451 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.Earlier heavy rain on a deep primed snowpack caused extensive 
snowmelt for Western New York. Additional heavy rain this evening is 
expected to lead to additional snowmelt for Western and North 
Central New York. Flows in rivers may increase quickly and reach 
critical levels.

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-180600-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara 
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown, 
Buffalo, and Warsaw
451 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by runoff from widespread rain and rapid 
  snowmelt continues to be possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff from rain and snow melt may result in 
  flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and 
  flood-prone locations. The greatest threat for flooding will be in 
  ice jam prone areas, such as the Buffalo area creeks and near 
  Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus creek. Creeks and streams may rise out 
  of their banks.  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban 
  areas. Flood warnings have already been issued in some areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Ice will continue to break up on area creeks through the
    evening, with a risk of ice jams at typically vulnerable
    locations. Steadier rain will increase again this afternoon
    and evening, resulting in additional rises on area creeks and
    rivers. In total, the system will generate between an inch
    and inch and a half of rain before changing over to ice and
    snow this evening, then ending late tonight.

    The greatest risk for flooding is through tonight, when run-
    off from the rain and snow melt will peak.

  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop. This is especially the case
for those living in ice jam prone areas along the Buffalo area 
creeks and Cattaraugus creek. Others that have experienced ice jam 
flooding in the past should also be extra vigilant during this 
period.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-180600-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Watertown, Oswego, Newark, Lowville, Fair 
Haven, and Canandaigua
451 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive runoff from widespread rain 
  and rapid snowmelt continues to be possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Ontario and Wayne.

* WHEN...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Warmer weather through today has resulted in significant
    melting of the extensive snow pack over the region. A storm
    system will generate between one and two inches of rain over
    North Central New York, most of which will occur through late
    this evening. The combination of the significant rainfall and
    extensive snow melt may cause flooding along creeks and
    rivers.

  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

SJW

775 
WGUS61 KBUF 180439
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1139 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.Earlier heavy rain fell on a deep primed snowpack leading to rapid 
snowmelt. Excessive runoff caused by the earlier heavy rainfall and 
snowmelt will cause flows in rivers to increase quickly and reach 
critical levels.

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-181245-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara 
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown, 
Buffalo, and Warsaw
1139 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff from rain and snow melt may result in 
  flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and 
  flood-prone locations. The greatest threat for flooding will be in 
  ice jam prone areas, such as the Buffalo area creeks and near 
  Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus creek. Creeks and streams may rise out 
  of their banks.  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban 
  areas. Flood warnings have already been issued in some areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Earlier ice breakup will continue to move on area creeks
    through the night, with a risk of ice jams at typically
    vulnerable locations. Steadier rain will continue into the
    overnight, resulting in additional rises on area creeks and
    rivers. In total, the system will generate between an inch
    and inch and a half of rain before changing over to ice and
    snow overnight.

    The greatest risk for flooding is through tonight, when run-
    off from the rain and snow melt will peak.

  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop. This is especially the case
for those living in ice jam prone areas along the Buffalo area 
creeks and Cattaraugus creek. Others that have experienced ice jam 
flooding in the past should also be extra vigilant during this 
period.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-181245-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Watertown, Oswego, Newark, Lowville, Fair 
Haven, and Canandaigua
1139 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive runoff from widespread rain 
  and rapid snowmelt continues to be possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Ontario and Wayne.

* WHEN...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Warmer weather through today has resulted in significant
    melting of the extensive snow pack over the region. A storm
    system has generated heavy rainfall over the watch area, and
    will result in one to two inches of total rainfall over North
    Central New York. The combination of the significant rainfall
    and extensive snow melt may cause flooding along creeks and
    rivers.

  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

SJW

344 
WGUS61 KBUF 181042
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
542 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

.Heavy rain combined with rapid snowmelt yesterday resulted in 
excessive runoff into streams, rivers, and low lying areas. The 
flood risk will continue today even as temperatures fall well below 
freezing.

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-181845-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, Niagara 
Falls, Batavia, Medina, Olean, Wellsville, Springville, Jamestown, 
Buffalo, and Warsaw
542 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by heavy rain and snowmelt yesterday will 
  continue to be possible today, even as temperatures fall well 
  below freezing.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
  Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff from rain and snow melt may result in 
  flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and 
  flood-prone locations. The greatest threat for flooding from ice 
  jams will be the Buffalo area creeks and near Sunset Bay on 
  Cattaraugus creek. Creeks and streams may rise out of their 
  banks.  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Flood 
  warnings have already been issued in some areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Earlier ice breakup will continue to move on area creeks
    through today, with a risk of ice jams at typically
    vulnerable locations. Rain and snowmelt from yesterday will
    continue to result in flooding of streams, rivers, and low
    lying areas today.

  - Http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-181845-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Watertown, Oswego, Newark, Lowville, Fair 
Haven, and Canandaigua
542 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive runoff from widespread rain 
  and snowmelt will continue to be possible today, even as 
  temperatures drop well below freezing.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western New York, including the 
  following counties, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis, 
  Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Ontario and Wayne.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Excessive runoff from heavy rain and snowmelt yesterday may
    result in flooding of streams, creeks, and low lying areas
    even as temperatures drop well below freezing today.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

766 
WGUS61 KBUF 181848
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
148 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-182000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Watertown, Orchard Park, Rochester, Geneseo, 
Buffalo, Oswego, Batavia, Medina, Newark, Olean, Lowville, 
Wellsville, Springville, Fair Haven, Jamestown, Canandaigua, Niagara 
Falls, and Warsaw
148 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch is cancelled for portions of central New York and 
western New York, including the following areas, in central New 
York, Jefferson, Lewis, Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New 
York, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, 
Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Ontario, Orleans, Southern Erie, 
Wayne and Wyoming.

Rivers and creeks will continue to have high flows but will slowly 
subside with time. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

$$

AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
632 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air will remain overhead of the region today and into early
evening, supporting lake effect snow this morning southeast and east
of Lake Ontario. Then tonight will mark the start of a warming trend
that will last through Thursday, with temperatures climbing up into
the 50s throughout the vast majority of the area. A combination of
the warm temperatures and a period of rain from a passing warm front
may bring flooding concerns for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Calm winds overnight made it hard for lake effect to stay intact
over land. However, as seen through a combination of infrared and
nighttime microphysics satellite images the lake band early this
morning became better developed inland across the southeastern
shoreline of Lake Ontario as the passage of an upper level trough is
helping increase winds behind its passage along wil adding some
additional moisture across the region.

Early this morning the cold airmass aloft will continue to support a
thick enough dendritic growth layer with inversion heights peaking
around 5-6kft. This combined with the aforementioned moisture will
support light fluffy lake snows on the southern shoreline of Lake
Ontario, in addition to the eastern shoreline as southwest winds
will advect the band northward. Provided recent history within these
past couple of days in regards to mesolows forming, seems plausible
early this morning for a mesolow to form over the eastern waters of
Lake Ontario, in which case a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
tonight to cover this potential. Meanwhile, less convergence and
extensive ice cover on Lake Erie will hinder lake effect snows and
keep it to just flurries early late overnight tonight and early this
morning.

As the rest of the day progresses broad surface high pressure,
currently spanning from the Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic Coast
will become more of a dominating factor, which in turn will support
dry warm air to be advected in across the region aloft. Overall,
this will deteriorate lake effect parameters and cause lake snows to
diminish throughout the rest of the day. However, an additional inch
or two is possible this morning along the southeastern Lake Ontario
shoreline and a few miles inland. The winter weather advisory will
end by 18Z due to the diminishing lake snows.

Skies will clear early Tuesday evening, which will allow for
temperatures to fall rapidly. However, increasing cloud cover and
warm air advection aloft will support warming temperatures overnight
where a rise of nearly 10 degrees is possible.

The broad area of surface high pressure will slide northeast off the
coast of New England by Wednesday morning. During this time, the
area will be under dry southerly flow supporting warm and windy
conditions. That being said, temperatures will continue to warm
Wednesday with highs peaking mainly in the upper 40s. However due to
southerly downsloping flow, some low 50s will be possible across the
Lake Erie shore and east from the Niagara frontier east to Monroe
county. Additionally with the mention of southerly downslope flow,
gusty winds will ramp up Wednesday and continue into Wednesday
night. Gusts to 40mph are likely off the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug
Hill Plateau.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...Elevated flooding risk begins Thursday...

Latest ensemble systems and deterministic solutions remaining
consistent in showing a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone/cold
front from Texas northeastward into southern Ontario Wednesday
night. Western and north central New York will reside on the warm
side of this boundary through this period.

Mild temperatures will remain with 40s and 50s likely holding
through Wednesday night, with very mild temperatures continuing
Thursday with 50s for much of the area with a few 60 degree readings
not out of the question. Dewpoints also remaining well above
freezing. This will continue to aggressively melt the remaining
snowpack.

Confidence increasing for rain event during this period. Upper level
low is expected to push into the Central Plains, while an associated
upper trough over the upper midwest begins to deepen and push toward
the Ohio Valley. A strengthening surface low is expected to
accompany this system, pushing northeast from the southern plains
into the Ohio valley along the baroclinic zone. Moisture transport
will increase significantly, peaking during the day Thursday as a
strong 55-60 knot low level jet punches into the region. Anomalously
high precipitable water values over an inch supporting the potential
for an axis of moderate to heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall
amounts in excess of an inch are certainly possible. Given the
potential rainfall amounts and the melting of a water-logged
snowpack (2-4" water equivalent), areal flooding along with river
and creek flooding will certainly be a concern. Current ice on area
tributaries could also result in ice jams

Gusty winds south-southwest will continue Wednesday night into
Thursday despite the warm air advection regime in place. Winds
may drop off late Thursday as the low-level baroclinic zone/cold
front starts to move into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
...Flooding Possible Thursday night and Friday...

There are multiple concerns Thursday night, with a continued risk
for flooding depending on how quickly temperatures drop below
freezing. An additional concern is the risk for accumulating snows.
The 00Z ECMWF/GGEM both show at least several inches of snow
accumulating Thursday night, so much so that Winter headlines may be
needed.

Behind the departing area of low pressure and front, and with
temperatures cooling aloft, a lake response will begin to develop as
850mb temps drop to around -15C by Friday morning. Lake effect snow
will linger into Friday evening before increased ridging and warm
air advection briefly ramps up ahead of another approaching cold
front, that is associated with a sfc low near James Bay. That cold
front will track across the area on Saturday, causing snow showers.
Temperatures on Friday will be well below normal with highs in the
low to mid 20s for most areas. Highs on Saturday will warm a bit
closer to, but still below normal with temperatures in the lower
30s.

Otherwise...a solid return to mid winter temperatures can be fully
anticipated Thursday night into Saturday. The mercury will
moderate for the second half of the weekend into early next week.

Outside of some leftover nuisance lake snow showers east of Lake
Ontario on Sunday morning...low amplitude ridging should provide us
with dry weather Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A band of light to moderate lake effect snow currently lies along
the southeastern shoreline and southeast/east of Lake Ontario early
this morning, mainly impacting the areas well east-northeast of KROC
and south of KART. With in this band, expect IFR conditions due to
light to moderate snow limiting visibility. As the morning
progresses this band will continue to slowly shift north, and lie
just south of the KART terminal shortly after dawn. Overall, TAF
sites will remain mainly VFR throughout the early morning hours,
with KART dipping down to MVFR ceilings briefly as the band nears
the area this morning.

Throughout the rest of the day, winds will veer to more of a
northwest flow. This will send the weakening lake snows back
southeast of Lake Ontario and end as flurries as surface high
pressure inserts its dominance over the region. Flight conditions
within the bands of snow of IFR early in the day will improve back
to VFR as the snow diminishes.

High pressure will then remain overhead tonight supporting dry clear
skies and therefore mainly VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. LLWS possible.
Wednesday Night and Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain developing from
west to east. LLWS possible early.
Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR with rain ending as snow.
Friday and Friday Night...Mainly VFR/MVFR with a chance of lake
effect snow showers and localized IFR possible to the south and
southeast of the Lakes.
Saturday...A chance of snow showers. Windy.

&&

.MARINE...
A passage of an upper level trough early this morning has supported
a slight increase in winds, which will possibly bring waves to near
4 feet on Lake Ontario in open waters.

Surface high pressure will continue to press its dominance on the
eastern Great Lakes today and tonight causing winds and waves to
lessen today.

The next approaching weather system supporting active weather will
arrive during the later half of the week. Southerly flow Wednesday
will support downsloping off both the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill,
which will ramp up winds on both Erie and the east end of Lake
Ontario and therefore increase waves towards Small Craft conditions
on the open waters of eastern Lake Ontario Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Low pressure will track near our region Thursday. Warmer
weather will precede this system Wednesday and Wednesday night,
and this will result in considerable snow melt. There is a
significant snow pack in place across the entire region, and
this snow pack is fairly dense and could ripen and melt during a
prolonged period of warm weather such as this.

There remains significant uncertainty as to when temperatures
will drop below freezing with a wide range in model guidance.
Some guidance has temperatures dropping below freezing Thursday
afternoon which would change precipitation over to snow and
limit run-off. Other guidance has a much slower change over with
above freezing temperatures lasting well into Thursday night.
In addition to snow melt, the system is likely to produce
between a half inch and an inch of rain before changing over to
snow.

At this point our greatest concern is for the potential
development of ice jams. Buffalo Creek, Cayuga Creek, and
Cazenovia Creek tend to be most vulnerable to ice jam flooding,
however ice jams can occur on other rivers and creeks. Thawing
degree hours (TDH) will depend on how quickly the colder air
mass moves in, but TDH may approach 500 in the Buffalo creeks
basin which would likely cause ice in place to break up and
potentially cause ice jams.

GEFS and NAEFS ensembles show a risk of mainly minor flooding of
approximately 30 percent at forecast points in the Buffalo
Creeks, Allegheny, and Genesee basins with a lower risk in the
Black River basin where it will be colder. HEFS ensembles which
can account for some model bias shows a lower risk. Basically,
rainfall amounts would have to come in towards the higher end of
our expectation to cause flooding from high flows.

There remains considerable uncertainty with this system, and
there is not yet enough forecast confidence to issue a Flood
Watch. Those located in areas typically vulnerable to flooding
should monitor the latest forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ004>006.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...Apffel/RSH
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
HYDROLOGY...Apffel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
536 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

NYZ001>003-007-008-010>014-019>021-085-161045-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
536 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Warmer temperatures will result in snow melt Wednesday into Thursday.
This snow melt combined with possible rainfall exceeding an inch
will bring the potential for flooding from high flows, ice jams, or a
combination of both Thursday into Friday.

Colder air will build in behind the system, with rain changing to
snow or freezing rain. Several inches of snow accumulation is
possible Thursday night along with some potential for ice. There
still remains uncertainty in the track of the storm which will
ultimately determine how our weather plays out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-161045-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
536 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Warmer temperatures will result in snow melt Wednesday into Thursday.
This snow melt combined with possible rainfall exceeding an inch
will bring the potential for flooding from high flows, ice jams, or a
combination of both Thursday into Friday.

Colder air will build in behind the system, with rain changing to
snow or freezing rain. Several inches of snow accumulation is
possible Thursday night along with some potential for ice. There
still remains uncertainty in the track of the storm which will
ultimately determine how our weather plays out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-161045-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
536 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
835 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

NYZ006>008-151445-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
835 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

...Heavy Snow Near the Tug Hill This Morning...

A band of moderate to heavy snow will impact the Tug Hill plateau
and immediate surrounding areas through 9:30 AM with snowfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour. This area of snow will push south
across Oswego county as the morning progresses. The snow will
weaken in intensity with time.

Motorists traveling across northern Oswego county, southern most
Jefferson county and the Tug Hill plateau of Lewis county should
plan on snow covered roadways through at least mid morning.

RSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
839 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

NYZ002-003-151500-
Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Medina and Rochester
839 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

...Slick travel for northern portions of Orleans and Monroe
counties...

A band of lake snow along the Lake Ontario shore at 8:30 AM will
settle to the south across parts of Orleans and Monroe counties
through 10 AM. While the band will weaken in intensity with
time...it should be enough to re-coat many untreated roadways
across the northern portions of each county with a fresh half to
one inch of snow.

Motorists should use extra caution while driving through these
areas. Allow extra time to reach your destination.