Beach Hazards Statement 13, NWS Buffalo, NY

712 
WHUS41 KBUF 310139
CFWBUF

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
939 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

NYZ019-085-310945-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T0600Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
939 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Through late Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-310945-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.220831T0300Z-220901T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
939 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions 
  expected.

* WHERE...Beaches of Niagara and Orleans counties.

* WHEN...Through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-310945-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.220831T0600Z-220901T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
939 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions 
  expected.

* WHERE...Beaches of Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 2 AM EDT Wednesday through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ007-310945-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.220831T0600Z-220901T0600Z/
Jefferson-
939 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions 
  expected.

* WHERE...Beaches of Jefferson county.

* WHEN...From 2 AM EDT Wednesday through late Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

026 
WHUS41 KBUF 310825
CFWBUF

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
425 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

NYZ010-311630-
/O.EXB.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T0900Z/
Northern Erie-
425 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Northern Erie county.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-311630-
/O.EXT.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T0900Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
425 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ007-311630-
/O.EXT.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T0900Z/
Jefferson-
425 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Jefferson county.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-311630-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
425 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Niagara and Orleans counties.

* WHEN...Through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-311630-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
425 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego 
  counties.

* WHEN...Through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

598 
WHUS41 KBUF 311447
CFWBUF

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1047 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

NYZ010-019-085-312300-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T0900Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1047 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-312300-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
1047 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Niagara and Orleans counties.

* WHEN...Through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-312300-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
1047 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego 
  counties.

* WHEN...Through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ007-312300-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T0900Z/
Jefferson-
1047 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Jefferson county.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

900 
WHUS41 KBUF 311947
CFWBUF

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
347 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

NYZ010-019-085-010515-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T0900Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
347 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010515-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
347 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Niagara and Orleans counties.

* WHEN...Through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-010515-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
347 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego 
  counties.

* WHEN...Through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ007-010515-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T0900Z/
Jefferson-
347 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Jefferson county.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

Apffel

965 
WHUS41 KBUF 010144
CFWBUF

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
944 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

NYZ010-019-085-010900-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T0900Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
944 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010945-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
944 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Niagara and Orleans counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-010945-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
944 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego 
  counties.

* WHEN...Through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ007-010900-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T0900Z/
Jefferson-
944 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Jefferson county.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

436 
WHUS41 KBUF 010939
CFWBUF

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
539 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

NYZ010-019-085-011200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.BH.S.0014.220901T0939Z-220901T1200Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
539 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ007-011200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.BH.S.0014.220901T0939Z-220901T1200Z/
Jefferson-
539 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Jefferson county.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-011200-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
539 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Niagara and Orleans counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-011500-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
539 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

268 
WHUS41 KBUF 011127
CFWBUF

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
727 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

NYZ007-010-019-085-011230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.BH.S.0014.000000T0000Z-220901T1200Z/
Jefferson-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
727 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

Waves will continue to subside this morning.

$$

NYZ001-002-011230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
727 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

Waves will continue to subside this morning.

$$

NYZ003>006-011500-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
727 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

138 
WHUS41 KBUF 011433
CFWBUF

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1033 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

NYZ003>005-011545-
/O.CAN.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
1033 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

$$

NYZ006-011800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T1800Z/
Oswego-
1033 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Oswego county.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

694 
WHUS41 KBUF 011747
CFWBUF

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
147 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

NYZ006-012100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T2100Z/
Oswego-
147 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

* WHERE...Beaches of Oswego county.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay out of the water to avoid dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

777 
WHUS41 KBUF 012024
CFWBUF

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
424 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

NYZ006-012130-
/O.CAN.KBUF.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-220901T2100Z/
Oswego-
424 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
309 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the region through early this
evening with widespread showers and scattered embedded
thunderstorms. A few storms may contain gusty winds and heavy
downpours, mainly from the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake
Ontario region. Most of the showers will end from west to east
this evening following the passage of the cold front, although a
few lake effect rain showers will continue east of Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario overnight into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level trough continuing to dig into the Great Lakes with closed
mid level low pivoting across Hudson Bay. Attendant upstream cold
front will cross the area through this evening. Regional radars
showing widespread moderate to occasionally heavy showers covering
all but the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. Very little
if any lightning noted with this activity, at least up to this
point in the day. The potential still exists for some thunder from
the Finger lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region with some
limited instability as clouds and showers held off the longest
there, but threat for severe storms seems to be lowering.
Nonetheless the heavier showers will produce locally heavy
rainfall given the high atmospheric moisture content.

The passage of the cold front will bring an end to the showers and
any thunderstorms from west to east very late this afternoon and
evening. The mid level trough axis and associated strong vorticity
maxima currently seen on water vapor imagery will cross the lower
Great Lakes later tonight. Forcing from the trough could bring some
additional showers. Cooling temperatures aloft combined with very
warm lake water temperatures will likely produce a lake response,
with a few lake enhanced showers developing over and east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario overnight. Forecast soundings suggest
enough instability over the lakes to support some thunder
potential, especially Lake Ontario where support is a little
more favorable.

Any lake response will fade Wednesday morning. Associated lift and
moisture along with additional cooling aloft should generate a few
showers later in the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening from
the eastern Finger Lakes to the North Country. Could be some
lake additional enhanced showers east of Lake Ontario. Could
be some additional showers off Lake Erie as well, but this
response should be more limited due to warm temperatures aloft
and short fetch. Off both lakes, contributions of warmth from
the ~24C lake waters may also be supportive of some isolated
thunder.

Wednesday night, flow turns northwesterly and moisture diminishes
which will cause the lake response to shift southeast/south of the
lakes and gradually weaken.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough axis will be overhead of northeastern New York
Thursday morning, where it will lift northeastward across New
England throughout the day. Meanwhile in the lower levels and at the
surface, the coolest air (~ +5C at 850mb) will be overhead of the
region Thursday morning which will support chances for lake effect
rain showers southeast of Lake Ontario. However, these showers will
be on a downward trend as moisture will be diminishing behind the
second frontal passage. Also the addition of diurnal heating will
warm up the lower layers of the atmosphere acting to cease lake
effect activity. Otherwise Thursday, with the cooler temperatures
aloft to start the day it will be difficult for temperatures to
rebound towards normal. This being said, Thursday will be the
coolest day of the week with highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s
across the higher terrain and upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.

Then upper level ridging will build and push east across western and
north-central New York Thursday night through Friday night. This
will allow for surface high pressure and more dry air to steadily
build east across New York State and New England which will result
in fair dry weather region wide. However, the region will become on
the backside of the high pressure area resulting in southwesterly
winds and warm air advection, which will support temperatures to
return to above normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the start of the holiday weekend, the surface high pressure will
be pushed out into the Atlantic as the next broad upper level
troughing pushes across the central Great Lakes. This atmospheric
set up will allow for southwest winds to continue to transport warm
moist air into the region Saturday. With the surface ridge
continuing to extend across the area, expect dry weather to prevail
while temperatures and humidity will be on the rise.

Then Saturday night and Sunday, aforementioned broad upper level
troughing will push east across Ontario and Quebec which will
consequently slowly shove its associated weak cold front across the
region. Overall this will support the chance for a few anafrontal
showers. That being said, with the clouds and showers spanning
across the region Sunday expect some cooler temperatures.

Heading into the start of the week, model guidance packages continue
the idea of the slow moving front stalling south of New York State
Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, Canadian high pressure will slide
east across souther Canada during this time. All in all, with the
stalled front to the south the Southern Tier may see a few showers
while the northern portions of the area can expect dry fair weather
to return.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will cross the area from west to east this afternoon,
clearing the area by late evening. Showers will be widespread ahead
of the front. Coverage of thunder is expected to remain isolated to
widely scattered across Western New York with limited instability.
More widespread thunder coverage is expected for a few hours from
mid afternoon through early evening across the eastern Lake Ontario
region, where better instability will be in place.

Expect improvement to mainly VFR during the late afternoon and
evening from west to east following the cold frontal passage.
Overnight, mainly VFR will prevail. A few lake effect rain showers
will develop over and east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with local
MVFR.

Outlook...
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few lake effect rain
showers east of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Thursday...Mainly VFR...with a chance of lake effect rain showers
southeast of Lake Ontario.
Friday through Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will approach and cross the eastern Great Lakes this
afternoon. Moderate southwesterlies will continue through early
evening, especially on Lake Erie where winds and waves will likely
reach low end Small Craft Advisory conditions along and just behind
the cold front.

A period of stronger WSW winds will then develop Wednesday behind
the cold front, with sustained winds on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
increasing to 20-25 knots, with gusts to 30+ knots. This will
produce a period of higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions,
lasting through Wednesday evening on Lake Erie, and through Thursday
morning on Lake Ontario.

Following the passage of the cold front, a much cooler airmass will
overspread the Lower Lakes Region through midweek. This will lead to
an environment supportive of a chance of waterspouts from late this
evening through Thursday morning. The best chance of waterspouts
will be in and near bands of lake effect clouds and showers where
convergent low level boundaries produce locally enhanced low level
vorticity, which can then be tilted and stretched by lake effect
updrafts.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Hitchcock/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

NYZ011-012-020-311445-
Genesee-Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-013-014-021-311445-
Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A cold front will generate widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms as it crosses the area today. Some of the storms could
produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-019-085-311445-
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a high swim risk for the beaches of Lake Erie Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-311445-
Niagara-Orleans-
1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a high swim risk for the beaches of Lake Ontario tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a high swim risk for the beaches of Lake Ontario Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>006-311445-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A cold front will generate widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms as it crosses the area today. Some of the storms could
produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds.

There is a high swim risk for the beaches of Lake Ontario tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a high swim risk for the beaches of Lake Ontario Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-311445-
Jefferson-
1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A cold front will generate widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms as it crosses the area today. Some of the storms could
produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a high swim risk for the beaches of Lake Ontario Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042-062-311445-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A much cooler airmass will overspread the area tonight and will lead
to the potential for waterspouts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There will be a continued potential for waterspouts Wednesday and
Wednesday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-311445-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A cold front will generate widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms as it crosses the area today. Some of the storms could
produce gusty winds.

A much cooler airmass will overspread the area tonight and will lead
to the potential for waterspouts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There will be a continued potential for waterspouts from Wednesday
into Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-311445-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A cold front will generate widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms as it crosses the area today. Some of the storms could
produce gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-311445-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1035 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1208 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

NYZ001-002-010-011-085-301815-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia,
Orchard Park, and Springville
1208 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

Showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms early this afternoon
will contain moderate to heavy downpours at times. The showers and
thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of a half inch to an
inch per hour, and this will result in areas of poor visibility,
and ponding of water in low lying areas and with poor drainage.

Motorists should allow a little extra time to reach their
destination this afternoon.

TMA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
111 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

NYZ003-004-012>014-020-021-301915-
Monroe-Wayne-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Warsaw, Geneseo,
Canandaigua, Olean, and Wellsville
111 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

Showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms early this afternoon
will contain moderate to heavy downpours at times. The showers and
thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of a half inch to an
inch per hour, and this will result in areas of poor visibility,
and ponding of water in low lying areas and with poor drainage.

Motorists should allow a little extra time to reach their
destination this afternoon.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon
behind this initial line of heavier rainfall.

Thomas