Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
325 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will cross the area this evening as scattered
storms, some locally severe, come to an end. High pressure
builds into the area for Friday into Saturday with warm to hot
weather continuing, but with less humid conditions expected. The
next chance of showers and storms arrives later Sunday and
especially Sunday night into Monday of early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Effect until 800 pm for Clinton
 and Essex Counties in New York, and all of Vermont.

As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...Severe T-Storm Watch #479 continues
as of this writing, with scattered, locally strong to severe
storms still a possibility into late afternoon/early evening
from the Champlain Valley east. Please stay abreast of the
latest statements and/or warnings issued by NWS Burlington. By
early this evening, a weak front, really just a dewpoint
discontinuity with some low level convergence, will sag through
the area with the convective threat ending west to east. This
will set the stage for a partly cloudy/mostly clear, seasonably
mild night as surface high pressure noses east from the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes states.

Seasonably warm to hot late July conditions continue tomorrow (max
T's 84 to 91), but much quieter weather is expected as afternoon
dewpoints lower into the 55 to 60 degree range, taking the edge off
the humidity and lowering overall heat indices. Then mainly clear
and calm Friday night as temperatures bottom out from 55 to 65 with
some slight variability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...Upper level low will remain anchored over
southern Hudson Bay on Saturday, with zonal flow over our forecast
area. Overall, the day looks like a generally dry day with very
subtle height rises expected, but within the zonal flow regime we
can't rule out any shortwave energy rippling through that could
spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two. Temperatures will
be very warm again, with highs expected in mid to upper 80s in
higher elevations and upper 80s to low 90s in lower elevations.
Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s during the day, which will
keep heat indices generally below heat advisory criteria.

Saturday night, flow will turn from westerly to southwesterly as
narrow ridge of high pressure shifts to our east and a developing
low pressure system upstream moves through northern Michigan. Ahead
of the low, we'll see weak positive moisture/temperature advection
through the night which will create another night of sultry
overnight conditions with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday morning, a moisture boundary will
move through and precipitable water values will climb to near 2.0
inches. The influx of moisture in combination with warm overnight
temperatures will setup an unstable environment by Sunday morning,
with models showing between 500 and 1000 J/kg CAPE by midday Sunday.
The general trend over the last 24 hours has been to slow the timing
of the front on Sunday, which equates to warmer temperatures during
the day, especially over the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys
where highs will be in the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s.
This keeps us just below heat advisory criteria, but if trends
continue we may come very close. As a cold front pushes through
late afternoon into evening, expect a line of showers and
thunderstorms to develop. All ingredients are present for some
severe weather, with ample moisture and instability, relatively
steep low-level lapse rates with dry low levels, and around 25 to 35
knots of 0-6 km shear. Main threats at this point look to be some
heavy rainers and some gusty to strong winds, especially over
Vermont.

The slower timing of the frontal passage means that associated rain
showers will linger into Monday morning...even potentially into
Monday afternoon. The slow-moving nature of the front will be due
to the boundary parallel flow that may not fully sweep the front
through our area until late Monday. While Monday does look a few
degrees cooler than the weekend, it still will be a warm day with
the cooler air not set to arrive until Tuesday now. Highs Monday
will be in the low to mid 80s for Vermont, mid to upper 70s for New
York. By Tuesday, highs area wide will be in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Mainly VFR through the period, with
exceptions between 18-23Z for restrictions to locally
strong/severe t-storms, mainly at KPBG and all VT terminals.
Cold front crossing the area during this time frame is sparking
current scattered, locally strong storms, with localized extreme
tuburlence, hail and strong/erratic wind gusts. Outside
convection, mainly scattered/broken cigs from 040-060 AGL with
winds south/southwesterly 8 to 18 kts and occnl gusts 20 to 30
kts, esp. at KMSS. After 00Z wx quiets down with light
south/southwest winds overnight into Friday as skies trend
mainly clr after 06Z.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...JMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
424 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-220830-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-
Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-
Eastern Windsor-
424 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Continued heat concerns with heat index values 88-95 degrees, and
potential for strong, possibly severe, thunderstorms from late this
morning through the afternoon mainly in Vermont. Gusty winds and hail
will be main threats, but a rare tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Warm temperatures continue through the weekend with another round of
thunderstorms possible on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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