Wind Advisory 16, NWS Brownsville, TX

395 
WWUS74 KBRO 110205
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
905 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

TXZ250-251-253>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-110315-
/O.EXP.KBRO.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-220411T0200Z/
Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Southern Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-
Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-Coastal Willacy-
Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island-Cameron Island-
Including the cities of Falfurrias, Sarita, McAllen, Edinburg, 
Pharr, Mission, Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, Harlingen, 
San Manuel, Port Mansfield, Port Isabel, Laguna Vista, 
South Padre Island, and Boca Chica Beach
905 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds continue to diminish across Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley late this evening. Therefore, the Wind Advisory has
been allowed to expire. Expect breezy southeast winds of 15 to 25
mph with higher gusts to continue across area for the few hours.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
704 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

.DISCUSSION...Breezy to windy conditions prevail across Deep South
Texas early this evening. The latest BRO sounding indicate south-
southeast winds of 46 knots around 1500 feet. Surface observations
continue to show robust winds around 30 to 40 mph with higher
gusts. Have decided to extend the Wind Advisory through 9 PM this
evening. Winds are expected to gradually weaken through the rest
of this evening but will remain rather breezy through the overnight
hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Breezy to windy conditions prevail across Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley early this evening. A mix of MVFR
and VFR ceilings are expected through late this evening with
prevailing MVFR ceilings developing overnight. Winds will gradually
weaken through the evening but should remain breezy overnight at
around 20 kts. Breezy to windy conditions are expected on Monday
with VFR conditions developing mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Very windy day across
the Deep South Texas today especially east of I-69C near the
coast. Gusts have briefly reached 50 mph for BRO and HRL but winds
weren't quite strong enough to issue a High Wind Warning today.
Though, the Wind Advisory did very much verify. High temperatures
will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s while tonight's lows
will be in the 60s and 70s with breezy southerly winds and
overcast skies.

Tomorrow won't be as windy but will still be breezy due to a surface
level low pressure system moving through northern Texas. Though, the
mid levels seem to straighten out and give us zonal flow through the
end of the Short Term period. Due to the decoupling of the troughs,
we may be just slightly shy of Wind Advisory criteria for the
coastal counties. Have decided to not issue one at this time but it
may be needed if winds intensify. Highs tomorrow will be slightly
warmer than today with lower 100s west of I-69C and upper 90s to the
east.

High Risk of rip currents should diminish by tomorrow evening as
winds and seas begin to relax. The hazard should be able to expire
at 7 PM as planned. Monitored inundation levels and no coastal
flooding was occurring at this time.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): Mid/upper-level large scale
trough will swing eastward over the Rockies and Plains Tuesday and
into Wednesday. Deterministic models show an embedded shortwave
trough moving over South Texas Tuesday morning/afternoon. Enough
moisture and lift associated with this shortwave may produce
a few showers and thunderstorms for the area, though best chances
are expected to occur over the Northern Ranchlands and points
northward. As the larger scale trough continues to shift eastward
beyond Wednesday, quasi-zonal flow will set up for much of the
Southern CONUS. Meanwhile, weak ridging over the western Caribbean
will begin to gradually retrograde westward over the Bay of
Campeche by midweek, eventually parking itself over central
Mexico by next weekend.

At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop and deepen
across the Central Plains starting Tuesday morning as the
aforementioned mid-level trough advects over the Rockies. This
will cause another breezy day on Tuesday, with speeds flirting
with Wind Advisory levels during the daytime near the coast. The
surface low will drag a very weak and ill-defined cold front
through the state Wednesday. Compressional heating is expected to
occur ahead of the cold front on Wednesday as a dryline moves
through the western counties in the afternoon. This will spike
temperatures into the triple digits for majority of the area,
especially west of I-69C. The front should push through the BRO
CWA Wednesday night, but a few models have the front stalling
across or just north of the BRO CWA by Thursday morning. Better
details on the front in later forecast updates.

The stalled front is forecast to lift northward as a warm front
on Friday morning. Guidance is fairly confident that isolated to
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may develop
along the warm front. So, maintained isolated chances of showers
and thunderstorms Friday morning along the frontal boundary.
Beyond Friday, conditions will trend warmer and breezy into next
weekend.

MARINE (Tonight through Monday Night): Adverse marine conditions
to continue tomorrow due to moderate winds and seas which
prompted the extension of the SCA for the Gulf Waters (0-60nm)
until noon Monday. Then, winds and seas will calm for the
remainder of the Short Term period with SCEC most likely to
replace the SCA.

Tuesday through Saturday: Adverse marine conditions are expected
to continue through the upcoming week, with Small Craft
Advisories likely needing to be continued into Wednesday and
possibly into Thursday. Expect moderate to briefly strong
southerly to southeasterly flow nearly every day, with elevated
seas. Some improvement is possible Friday and Saturday.

FIRE (Tonight through Monday Night): Have issued a Fire Weather
Watch for Monday from 1 PM to 7 PM due to moderate winds and low
RH values. Decided to only include the Brush Country and Upper
Valley in the Fire Weather Watch due to lower RH values in the 20
to 30 percent range west of I-69E. Winds may be slightly under
criteria at 10 to 15 mph in some places but the potential for
rapid wildfire growth will still be present.

Wednesday: Potential for critical fire weather concerns will
occur again on Wednesday, especially west of I-69C, as a dryline
pushes eastward across Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and possibly as
far east as Hidalgo/Brooks Counties. Relative humidity values
will plummet below 20 percent and possibly into the single digits
across Zapata County during the afternoon hours. Temperatures are
also expected to soar above 100 degrees across these counties.
Winds will turn northerly and increase between 15 and 25 mph, with
gusts around 30 mph.

Burning of any kind should be avoided the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  85  71  87 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          72  92  73  89 /  10   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            71  94  72  91 /  10   0   0  10
MCALLEN              71  99  73  96 /  10   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      69 101  71 101 /  10   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  77  71  77 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ250-251-253>255-
     351-353>355-451-454-455.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>250-252-
     253-353.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ248>250-252-253-353.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
https://weather.gov/rgv

63-KC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
545 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-112245-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island-
Cameron Island-
545 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy,
Brooks and Hidalgo counties until 7 PM this evening.

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 7 PM today across
Zapata, Starr, Jim Hogg, Brooks and Hidalgo Counties due to
enhanced wildfire growth and spread potential.

There is a high risk of rip currents along area beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Elevated rip current risk from Monday through Friday.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect 1 PM to 7 PM Monday for
Hidalgo, Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg and Brooks Counties.

Enhanced wildfire growth and spread potential and elevated fire
weather concerns will continue Monday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-112245-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from
20 to 60 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from
20 to 60 nm-
545 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Laguna Madre and the
Gulf waters through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Laguna Madre and
the Gulf waters through 1 PM Monday afternoon.

Small Craft advisory conditions will be possible for portions or
all the lower Texas coast Monday afternoon into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.