Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Brownsville, TX

045 
WGUS74 KBRO 241448
FFSBRO

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
948 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXC061-241515-
/O.CON.KBRO.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-220524T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cameron TX-
948 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT THIS 
MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CAMERON COUNTY...

At 948 AM CDT, An NWS employee reported thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain 
have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 1 
hour. Flash flooding is ongoing.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Public reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Southmost, Downtown Brownsville, Brownsville, Lincoln Park, 
  Brownsville Public Library Southmost Branch, North Brownsville 
  Little League, Perkins Middle School, Southmost Elementary School, 
  Faulk Middle School, Brownsville South Padre Island International 
  Airport, J.t. Canales Elementary School, Gonzalez Elementary 
  School, Brownsville Fire Department Station Six, Veterans 
  International Bridge, Longoria Elementary School, Besteiro Middle 
  School, El Jardin Elementary School, Hanna High School, Lopez High 
  School and Cameron County Courthouse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 2596 9752 2595 9740 2585 9740 2585 9741
      2584 9741 2584 9743 2585 9745 2587 9744
      2587 9746 2588 9746 2588 9747 2589 9747
      2588 9749 2589 9749 2588 9750 2590 9750
      2589 9752

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

53-Schroeder

374 
WGUS74 KBRO 241509
FFSBRO

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1009 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXC061-241519-
/O.CAN.KBRO.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-220524T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cameron TX-
1009 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CAMERON COUNTY HAS BEEN 
REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

LAT...LON 2596 9752 2595 9740 2585 9740 2585 9741
      2584 9741 2584 9743 2585 9745 2587 9744
      2587 9746 2588 9746 2588 9747 2589 9747
      2588 9749 2589 9749 2588 9750 2590 9750
      2589 9752

$$

53-Schroeder

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
655 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The break in the late conv is allowing for VFR
conditions to prevail across the RGV airports for the moment.
However, KBRO radar is showing a developing conv cluster over
Starr County heading into Hidalgo County moving east. This conv
area may bring another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsbys in
addition to other hazardous aviation weather over the next few
hours. Once this area of conv either dissipates or moves
offshore, conditions may improve back up to VFR levels during the
latter portion of the current TAF wording.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 109 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...The ongoing conv complex moving through the RGV at
this time will generate periods of MVFR/IFR conditions over the
next few hours for the local airports making for pretty hazardous
flying conditions. Once this conv dissipates/moves offshore as
indicated by the short range CAMS guidance, expect conditions to
improve slowly back up to VFR ceilings/vsbys later on Tues into
Tues Night. The conv potential looks to diminish for the RGV
during the latter half of the current TAF package as the 500 mb
closed low to our north moves more to the east allowing for some
drier and more stable air to entrain into the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...VFR conditions continue to prevail across the region.
After sunset showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
moving west to east across Deep South Texas. Ceilings will fall
to MVFR overnight and maybe even period of IFR with heavy
thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could be strong to severe with
heavy rain and strong winds being the main threats. Skies are
expected to clear out by Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night):Warm front expected
to lift north beginning this evening/overnight tonight. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with the warm
front lifting north. CAMs still have an MCS traversing through
CRP's CWA and clipping the Northern Ranchlands late this evening.
Showers are expected to start west and spread south and east due
to boundary collisions from the mid-level shortwave activity over
CRP and small streamer showers flowing south to north from Mexico.
Confidence regarding the placement of these storms is still
moderate due to the inconsistencies in the models. However, an MCS
could form over the the central CWA after midnight/very early
Tuesday morning.

Currently, Storm Prediction Center has all counties except Cameron
county in a Slight Risk for severe weather today. Weather Prediction
Center has Zapata, Starr, and western Jim Hogg in a Slight Risk for
excessive rain today as well. So, the best chance for rain/severe
thunderstorms would be in the Northern Ranchlands and Upper to Mid
Valley areas. Analyzing the near-storm environment for the KAPY
area, if storms are able to initialize, PWAT values are near the
90th percentile for BRO with CAPE values between 3000-4000 J/kg and
moist mid and low level RH values in the 50-90% range. Therefore,
the main hazards with these storms will be damaging winds, heavy
rainfall, and large hail. Low-level winds and EBWD values are low
with values under 15 kts which could lead to training storms and
flash flooding. With the rainfall from yesterday in Zapata and Starr
counties, 1 hr Flash Flood Guidance is only 2-3 inches for those
areas which is why they were added to the Slight category by WPC.
LSR's already confirmed nuisance flooding in the city of Zapata
yesterday and tonight's event could bring more of the same.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to end south to north
throughout Tuesday morning. Deep South Texas could still see some
lingering showers, but models have continued to trend downward in
regards to POPs for the daytime hours tomorrow. Southerly winds will
be breezy Tuesday with gusts up to 30 mph especially in the lower
RGV. Temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 70s tonight with 90s
for tomorrow with skies gradually clearing throughout the day. Kept
the High Risk of rip currents for tomorrow as well.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday):Large scale upper trough is
shown by latest model suite to traverse the Central Plains Wednesday
and Thursday. This deep trough looks strong enough to support a late
season cold front passage for Deep South Texas late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. The latest forecast continues the
trend of strong to potential severe thunderstorms along the front
with SPC continuing to indicate a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms for all of Deep South Texas and the RGV. As for the
deterministic models slight differences continue between the
GFS/ECMWF but not a lot to vary any drier or wetter than the
previous forecast package. Even though the ECMWF shows some deeper
moisture and a slightly quicker eastward pace of the front model
consensus remains consistent with the rain chances and the overall
QPF amounts. Our atmosphere is expected to be unstable as the
front moves into the region which will be supportive of isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms. Best dynamics of CAPE, shear and
large-scale ascent look to remain north of our region but there
remains sufficient instability especially if the surface inversion
cap can be broken/weakened as the front wedges into the region.
Forecast QPF values have been reduce Slight below the previous
forecast package, but with pwats still around 1.75 inches can not
rule out some robust cells dropping an inch or better of rain.
Some left over showers may linger along the Rio Grande river
Thursday morning with drier conditions ensuing for much of
Thursday, Friday and for the Memorial Day holiday weekend as a
strong high pressure ridge axis builds over north Mexico and South
Texas.

Temperatures will be hot and humid in advance of the front Wednesday
with some slight cooling Thursday in wake of the frontal passage
especially if clouds linger along across the RGv. Temperatures trend
upwards Friday and over the weekend as the ridge becomes well
established.

MARINE:(Tonight through Tuesday Night): Scattered showers and
thunderstorms tonight with rain ending tomorrow morning. As the
front moves north, southerly winds will be breezy with SCA likely by
early tomorrow morning with seas increasing to 5 to 7 feet by
tomorrow night.

(Wednesday through Saturday):As a cold front approaches Wednesday
winds and seas will show a lowering trend, however seas may be
slower to subside with some potential of small craft advisory
conditions persisting Wednesday morning. The frontal passage
brings a brief wind shift Wednesday night and Thursday with winds
not all that strong and seas in the moderate range. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible to become a bit widespread which will
agitate the seas. High pressure builds over the region Friday and
spreads eastward for the weekend. Light to fresh southeast flow is
expected with the strongest winds likely Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  93  77  91  73 /  50  50  30  50
BROWNSVILLE          94  79  93  75 /  50  40  20  50
HARLINGEN            96  77  94  72 /  50  50  30  40
MCALLEN              96  76  94  71 /  50  40  30  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  75  94  71 /  40  30  20  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  78  84  75 /  50  40  20  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
https://weather.gov/rgv

Short Term/Aviation...60-Speece
Long Term/Upper Air/Warning Ops...69-Farris
Hydro...53-Schroeder

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
515 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-242100-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island-
Cameron Island-
515 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible this morning for much
of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with the main threat
being strong winds, hail, locally heavy rainfall and localized
flooding.

There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at area beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

An elevated risk of rip currents will be possible at times
through the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-242100-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from
20 to 60 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from
20 to 60 nm-
515 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms will maintain hazardous
marine conditions across the lower Texas Bay and Gulf waters this
morning. Wind gusts up to Gale Force, hail, lightning and torrential
rain will persist throughout the morning hours today.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the lower Texas Bay and Gulf
waters through 1 PM this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Slightly elevated winds and seas may result in borderline to low
end small craft advisory conditions, mainly on the Gulf waters,
through mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
546 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXZ248>250-252-253-353-241145-
Southern Hidalgo TX-Brooks TX-Jim Hogg TX-Zapata TX-
Northern Hidalgo TX-Starr TX-
546 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Jim Hogg,
northwestern Hidalgo, Starr, western Brooks and southeastern Zapata
Counties through 645 AM CDT...

At 545 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Guerra to 10 miles east of El
Sauz. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rio Grande City, Roma, Escobares, El Sauz, Lopeno, La Rosita, Linn,
Agua Nueva, Viboras and San Manuel.

This includes the following highways...
 US Highway 83 between mile markers 770 and 822.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 756 and 764.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2687 9929 2717 9819 2640 9809 2636 9880
      2637 9882 2635 9890 2639 9893 2637 9895
      2640 9896 2639 9901 2641 9903 2640 9909
      2643 9911 2648 9909 2652 9913 2654 9917
      2662 9918 2672 9921 2675 9924 2679 9924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1045Z 251DEG 33KT 2686 9876 2651 9871

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

60/SPEECE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
613 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXZ252-253-241215-
Southern Hidalgo TX-Starr TX-
613 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Hidalgo
and south central Starr Counties through 715 AM CDT...

At 611 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Los Garzas to 28 miles southwest of La
Grulla. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Edinburg, McAllen, Mission, Pharr, San Juan, Alamo, Hidalgo,
Palmview, Penitas, Sullivan City and La Joya.

This includes the following highways...
 US Highway 83 near mile marker 818, and between mile markers 822 and
850.
 Interstate Highway 69 C between mile markers 1 and 12.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 784 and 798.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2607 9813 2605 9815 2607 9818 2607 9825
      2610 9829 2612 9827 2612 9828 2610 9830
      2617 9834 2616 9839 2623 9845 2620 9848
      2625 9856 2622 9856 2626 9859 2624 9867
      2637 9879 2637 9890 2640 9809 2604 9807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1111Z 267DEG 25KT 2631 9887 2595 9893

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

60/SPEECE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
652 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXZ249>255-351-353-354-241245-
Inland Willacy TX-Southern Hidalgo TX-Brooks TX-Jim Hogg TX-
Coastal Kenedy TX-Coastal Willacy TX-Northern Hidalgo TX-
Inland Cameron TX-Starr TX-Inland Kenedy TX-
652 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Kenedy, southeastern
Jim Hogg, Hidalgo, Starr, northwestern Cameron, southern Brooks and
Willacy Counties through 745 AM CDT...

At 652 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles southeast of Rachal to near La Joya
City Hall. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Edinburg, Mission, Pharr, Harlingen, Weslaco, San Juan, Alamo, Donna,
Mercedes and Rio Grande City.

This includes the following highways...
 US Highway 83 between mile markers 810 and 816, and between mile
markers 820 and 850.
 Interstate Highway 69 E between mile markers 28 and 51.
 Interstate Highway 69 C between mile markers 1 and 12.
 US Highway 77 between mile markers 728 and 762.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 724 and 764.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 784 and 812.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2606 9820 2623 9845 2624 9867 2637 9880
      2639 9901 2705 9833 2703 9764 2689 9746
      2689 9750 2686 9747 2686 9746 2679 9751
      2677 9749 2684 9746 2674 9742 2674 9747
      2655 9742 2605 9786
TIME...MOT...LOC 1152Z 285DEG 43KT 2677 9802 2621 9852

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Farris

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
702 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXZ249>254-353-241230-
Inland Willacy TX-Southern Hidalgo TX-Brooks TX-Jim Hogg TX-
Northern Hidalgo TX-Starr TX-Inland Kenedy TX-
702 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Kenedy,
southeastern Jim Hogg, Hidalgo, northeastern Starr, southern Brooks
and northwestern Willacy Counties through 730 AM CDT...

At 702 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near El Coyote Ranch Airport to 6 miles
southwest of Puerto Rico. Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Edinburg, Pharr, San Juan, Alamo, Raymondville, Elsa, Edcouch, La
Villa, Encino and Lasara.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate Highway 69 E between mile markers 47 and 51.
 Interstate Highway 69 C between mile markers 1 and 12.
 US Highway 77 between mile markers 752 and 762.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 730 and 764.
 US Highway 281 near mile marker 784.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2712 9836 2659 9765 2611 9811 2667 9881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1202Z 314DEG 44KT 2684 9817 2658 9842

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Farris

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
729 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXZ251-253-254-353-241300-
Inland Willacy TX-Southern Hidalgo TX-Northern Hidalgo TX-
Inland Kenedy TX-
729 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Kenedy,
northeastern Hidalgo, northwestern Cameron and western Willacy
Counties through 800 AM CDT...

At 729 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles north of Lasara to near Edinburg South
Texas International Airport
Edinburg South Texas International Airport. Movement was east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Raymondville, Lyford, Hargill, Lasara, San Manuel, Linn, Faysville,
Red Gate, Jose Borrego Middle School and Yturria.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate Highway 69 E between mile markers 41 and 51.
 US Highway 77 between mile markers 752 and 762.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 750 and 764.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2634 9781 2634 9786 2644 9826 2654 9836
      2670 9819 2667 9754 2664 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1229Z 274DEG 39KT 2662 9795 2646 9820

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Farris

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
746 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXZ253-255-241330-
Southern Hidalgo TX-Inland Cameron TX-
746 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Hidalgo,
northwestern Cameron and southwestern Willacy Counties through 830 AM
CDT...

At 746 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Doolittle to near Santa Ana National Wildlife
Refuge. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Edinburg, Mission, Pharr, Harlingen, Weslaco, San Juan, Alamo, Donna,
Mercedes and Hidalgo.

This includes the following highways...
 US Highway 83 near mile marker 850.
 Interstate Highway 69 E between mile markers 34 and 37.
 Interstate Highway 69 C between mile markers 1 and 12.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 784 and 816.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2607 9786 2607 9803 2604 9807 2605 9807
      2607 9813 2606 9820 2612 9830 2610 9830
      2617 9834 2616 9839 2620 9844 2648 9833
      2644 9806 2639 9786 2635 9786 2633 9775
      2603 9779
TIME...MOT...LOC 1246Z 296DEG 31KT 2637 9809 2602 9814

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Farris