Alert archive / Massachusetts / Winter Storm Warnings in 2022

Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

December 15, 2022Franklin County, Hampden County, Hampshire County, Massachusetts

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this winter storm warning at Dec 15, 2022, 3:26 AM EST for Franklin County, Hampden County, Hampshire County, Massachusetts. It took effect at Dec 15, 2022, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 36 hr. 49 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Dec 15, 2022, 3:26 AM EST (08:26 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 15, 2022, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 17, 2022, 7:00 AM EST
In force
36 hr
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Counties Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Dec 16, 6:36 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 01 Wsw Ashfield, MATREE DOWN ON WIRES ON CREAMERY RD. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 6:57 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 01 Se Chesterfield, MATREE LIMB AND WIRES DOWN ON A CAR - NO INJURIES. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 61 Ssw Buckland, MA
Dec 16, 7:08 AM ESTSNOW 61 Ese Plainfield, MA
Dec 16, 7:16 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 0Granville, MATREE DOWN ON WIRES. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 7:17 AM ESTSNOW 62 Sse Ashfield, MA
Dec 16, 7:43 AM ESTSNOW 71 Ese Plainfield, MA
Dec 16, 7:54 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 01 Wsw Conway, MAROWER LINES DOWN ON IVES RD. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 7:58 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 01 Wsw Ashfield, MAPOWER LINES DOWN ON CONWAY RD. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 7:59 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 01 Se Chester, MAMULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON ROUND HILL RD. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.51 Ne Chesterfield, MA
Dec 16, 8:20 AM ESTSNOW 41 Wnw Westhampton, MA
Dec 16, 9:10 AM ESTSNOW 3.5Granville, MAREPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 9:17 AM ESTSNOW 9Hawley, MA
Dec 16, 9:45 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 0Goshen, MATREE DOWN ON WIRES ON ADAMS RD. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 10:00 AM ESTSNOW 41 Wnw Westhampton, MA
Dec 16, 10:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 7Rowe, MATREE AND WIRES DOWN ON DAVIS MINE RD. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 10:06 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 0Goshen, MATREE DOWN ON WIRES ON SHAW RD.
Dec 16, 10:10 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 0Worthington, MATREE DOWN ON HUNTINGTON RD.
Dec 16, 10:46 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 01 Se Cummington, MATREE DOWN ON WIRES ON WILDER RD. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 10:47 AM ESTSNOW 91 Ese Plainfield, MA
Dec 16, 11:00 AM ESTSNOW 7Goshen, MA
Dec 16, 11:10 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 01 Wsw Conway, MATREE DOWN ON WIRES ON ASHFIELD RD.
Dec 16, 11:21 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 0Goshen, MATREE DOWN ON EAST RD.
Dec 16, 11:36 AM ESTSNOW 101 Ese Plainfield, MA
Dec 16, 11:50 AM ESTSNOW 6Huntington, MAREPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 12:00 PM ESTSNOW 12 N Southwick, MA
Dec 16, 12:00 PM ESTSNOW 1.11 S Westfield, MA
Dec 16, 12:00 PM ESTSNOW 91 Se Chesterfield, MA
Dec 16, 12:44 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 01 Ssw Buckland, MATREE AND WIRES DOWN. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 1:00 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 0Worthington, MASEVERAL TREES DOWN ON WIRES.
Dec 16, 1:10 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 0Blandford, MAPOWER LINES DOWN ON NORTH BLANDFORD RD. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 1:21 PM ESTSNOW 121 Se Chester, MA
Dec 16, 1:50 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 01 Wsw Ashfield, MATREE DOWN ON WIRES. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 1:57 PM ESTSNOW 121 Ese Plainfield, MA
Dec 16, 2:14 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 01 Wsw Ashfield, MATREE DOWN ON WIRES. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 16, 2:15 PM ESTSNOW 13Rowe, MA
Dec 16, 8:00 PM ESTSNOW 181 Ne Heath, MA
Dec 16, 8:20 PM ESTSNOW 151 Ese Plainfield, MA
Dec 16, 9:06 PM ESTSNOW 161 Se Cummington, MA
Dec 16, 10:00 PM ESTSNOW 14Blandford, MA
Dec 17, 2:45 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 0Rowe, MATREE DOWN ON HAZELTON ROAD RELAYED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 17, 5:25 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 01 Ssw Buckland, MAMULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON WIRES RELAYED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 17, 5:50 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 0Worthington, MALARGE TREE DOWN ON WIRES WITT HILL ROAD AT GUARD ROAD RELAYED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 17, 5:52 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 01 Wsw Conway, MALARGE TREE DOWN ON NORTH POLAND ROAD.
Dec 17, 6:10 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 0Rowe, MAMIDDLETWON HILL ROAD - TREE DOWN RELAYED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 17, 7:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 0Goshen, MABALL ROAD - TREE DOWN ON WIRES RELAYED BY AMATEUR RADIO.
Dec 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 1.12 Se Sunderland, MACO-OP OBSERVER STATION SDLM3 SUNDERLAND.
Dec 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 71 Wnw Westhampton, MA

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2022-12-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2022-12-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 43 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1214 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
258 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

774 
WWUS41 KBOX 150826
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
326 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

CTZ002-150930-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.A.0009.221215T2100Z-221217T1500Z/
Hartford CT-
Including the cities of Hartford and Windsor Locks
326 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

Accumulating snow will be confined to the northwest corner of the
county and elevations 1000 feet and higher. 

$$

MAZ002-008-009-152130-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0009.221215T2100Z-221217T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0007.221216T0000Z-221217T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
326 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to
  12 inches with isolated amounts of 12 to 18 inches.
  Accumulations confined to 1000 feet or higher. Winds gusting as
  high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute. The combination of heavy wet snow and winds gusting to
  40 mph may result in power outages. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ003-004-152130-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0018.221216T0000Z-221217T1200Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield, Orange, Barre, and Fitchburg
326 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches. Along the Massachusetts and New Hampshire border totals
  may be as high as 3 to 6 inches. Accumulations confined to 1000
  feet or higher. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin MA and Northern Worcester MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The
  combination of heavy wet snow and winds gusting to 40 mph may
  result in power outages. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
070 
WWUS41 KBOX 152112
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
412 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

MAZ002-008-009-161100-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0007.221216T0000Z-221217T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
412 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to
  12 inches at elevations above 1000 feet. Localized, isolated
  amounts up to 20 inches at elevations above 1500 ft. Winds 
  gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...The eastern slopes of the Berkshires.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commutes. The combination of heavy wet snow and winds gusts to
  40 mph could result in possible power outages and tree damage. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ003-004-161100-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0018.221216T0000Z-221217T1200Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield, Orange, Barre, and Fitchburg
412 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches, with up to 6 inches along the immediate Massachusetts
  and New Hampshire border. Accumulations will be confined to
  elevations 1000 feet or higher. Winds gusting as high as 40 
  mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin MA and Northern Worcester MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The
  combination of heavy wet snow and winds gusting to 40 mph could
  result in possible power outages and tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$
042 
WWUS41 KBOX 160830
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
330 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022

MAZ002-008-009-162130-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-221217T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
330 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches. Isolated amounts of up to 18 inches near the Vermont
  border. Accumulations confined to 1000 feet or higher. Winds 
  gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ003-004-162130-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-221217T1200Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield, Orange, Barre, and Fitchburg
330 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.
  Along the Massachusetts and New Hampshire border totals may be
  as high as 4 to 8 inches. Accumulations confined to 1000 feet 
  or higher. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin MA and Northern Worcester MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$
816 
WWUS41 KBOX 161931
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
231 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022

MAZ002-008-009-170845-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-221217T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
231 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 9 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ026-170845-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-221217T1200Z/
Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the city of Ayer
231 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches
  above 900 feet in elevation. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Middlesex MA County.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This advisory is intended for extreme
  northwestern Middlesex County along the New Hampshire boarder
  and locations above 900 feet in elevation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MAZ003-004-170845-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-221217T1200Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield, Orange, Barre, and Fitchburg
231 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches
  above 900 feet in elevation inches. Winds gusting as high as 40
  mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin MA and Northern Worcester MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$
148 
WWUS41 KBOX 171155
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
655 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022

MAZ002-008-009-171300-
/O.EXP.KBOX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-221217T1200Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
655 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

Snow is ending across the region. Could see another inch or two
before snow completely ends across the higher terrain. Any 
untreated roads may be slippery as temperatures hover around 
freezing. Motorists should be prepared for slippery travel this 
morning, and drive with caution.

$$

MAZ003-004-026-171300-
/O.EXP.KBOX.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-221217T1200Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield, Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, 
and Ayer
655 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

Snow is ending across the region little if any additional 
accumulation. Any untreated roads may be slippery as temperatures
hover around freezing. Motorists should be prepared for slippery 
travel this morning, and drive with caution.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Dec 15, 1:05 AM EST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 15, 1:05 AM EST, 2 hours 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
105 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Quebec high pressure yields dry weather and easing winds tonight,
with moderating temperatures Thursday. Low pressure then tracks
along or near the southern New England coast Thu night and Fri,
delivering a chilly windswept rain, except heavy wet snow is
likely across the high terrain of western Massachusetts. Behind
this departing low, a drying and cooling trend this weekend,
along with blustery west to northwest winds. Dry weather likely
lingers into early next, but likely with colder than normal
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM Update...

No changes in the latest update. Forecast remains on track.

10 PM Update...

Increased precipitation chances toward the latest NAMNest/NSSL
WRF guidance based on current observations of the shower
activity pushing in. Should see this activity diminishing by
roughly 05-07Z as it moves in. Rest of the forecast is on track.

Previous discussion...

Minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast this evening. Last couple
of runs of the HRRR and RAP were more potent with an offshore
band of showers set to move across the eastern MA coastal waters
into portions of eastern MA later this evening. Latest regional
radars also showed this band holding together pretty well,
despite likely overshooting the echoes to some degree. The
greatest risk for mostly rain showers should be across the
coastal waters, and towards the outer Cape and Nantucket.

Also brought temperatures and winds back in line with observed
trends. Gusty winds were diminishing a little bit faster.

Previous Discussion...

Gusty winds continue late this afternoon and evening as the
surface low offshore makes its closest pass between 4 and 7 pm.
This tightens the pressure gradient further and a 45kt+ jet
moves over the extreme eastern coast. Thus, for areas along
the coast like Cape Cod and the islands wind gusts will hold
steady or even slightly surge early this evening. Further
inland, after sundown surface temps drop and winds will cease to
mix down so should see a more rapid decrease of winds inland.
Tonight our blocking pattern begins to breakdown as the mid
level ridge approaches, as does high pressure at the surface
(leading to the end of gusty winds by sunup). On its way out,
though, a final shortwave rotates around the upper low and
brushes eastern southern New England. This, along with surface
winds veering to the northeast, will generate scattered ocean
effect rain showers over Cape Cod and potentially extending into
eastern Massachusetts as ocean effect snow showers; the window
for these rain and snow showers would generally be between 8pm
and midnight, give or take a few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

Thursday the trough-ridge-trough pattern continues its march
eastward, sliding the ridge axis across southern New England by
mid afternoon. This makes for a quiet and mostly dry day, with
light winds much of the day. The only exception to the dry
forecast may be for some scattered ocean effect rain showers
thanks to the northeasterly flow around the high. Best chance
for this precip will be over eastern MA and RI, with lesser
chance further west in MA and CT. So, even though the warm
frontal high clouds ahead of the approaching storm system will
only just be arriving by sunrise, surface northeast winds will
keep low level clouds around all day. Clouds thicken and lower
through the day and into the evening ahead of the approaching
system, while temperatures moderate a bit, especially for
eastern MA and coastal RI thanks to northeast flow off the
ocean, which is still in the 40s and low 50s. Highs here reach
into the low 40s.

While moisture (and cloudcover) increases on Thursday, the
appreciable precipitation (rain and snow, not counting the
previously mentioned ocean effect showers) should hold off until
Thursday evening as it will take some time to overcome mid level
dry air. The instigator of this is a low pressure that forms
over the mid Atlantic along the triple point of a parent low
over the Great Lakes. This low track up the northeast coast and
then over southern New England. Most guidance (with the
exception of the GFS) is honed in on a track over Cape Cod which
produces a cold rain scenario for much of the region, with heavy
heavy, wet snow over the higher terrain thanks to the moderate
antecedent temperatures. There is ample moisture to work with
given PWATs 1-2 standard deviations above normal, but again the
fly in the ointment will be marginal temperatures thanks to the
low level easterly flow. Warm advection aloft will initiate rain
and snow by 00Z Thursday, quickly overspreading the region. A
warm nose moves north rather quickly, so even some inland
locations that start off as snow should change to snow rather
quickly. For locations above 1,000 ft though, warmer air is
expected to be overcome by the strong easterly, upslope flow
which should induce some dynamic cooling. Easterly winds at 850
mb will be blowing at 40-45 kts. As we're just getting into some
of the high-resolution guidance, confidence in snow amounts by
sunrise Friday is rather low. Advisory level snows (3 to 7
inches in the Berkshires) are all but certain by 7 am (90%
probability in the EPS, 70% in the GEFS), with less certainty of
seeing warning criteria (7 inches or greater) by sunrise. The
struggle with this system will be a tight snowfall gradient
given the elevation dependent nature of it.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued accordingly for the slopes
of the Berkshires as well as Hartford county, though only the
extreme northwest portion of Hartford county is expected to see
impacts from this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Highlights

* A windswept rain Friday, with heavy wet snow possible high
  terrain of western MA/CT

* Dry but trending colder & blustery this weekend into early next
  week

Precipitation...

Complex forecast for Friday into Saturday, with some lingering
uncertainty in the details. Temperatures in the lowest levels of
the atmosphere will marginally support snow, especially during
the daytime hours. Thus, accumulation snowfall across southern
New England will be very elevation-dependent. Expecting a sharp
gradient between where the snowfall accumulates significantly,
versus those that are mainly rain. A small change in temperature
could lead to a large change in snowfall. Will need to monitor
temperatures closely through this event.

At present, confined significant snowfall accumulations at
elevations at or above 1,000 ft. The consistency of the snowfall
for most should be heavy and wet, trending to a drier snowfall
at the highest elevations of southern New England. This may
change with later forecasts, so stay tuned.

Otherwise, expecting a significant precipitation event to begin
winding down from west to east during the day Friday, and
especially Friday night. Thinking there could be a brief final
burst of snow across the higher elevations when the colder air
surges south.

Strong East Winds...

Frontal wave is associated with a 65 kt low level easterly jet.
Model soundings suggest east winds may gusts up to 40-50 mph along
the coast. Wind Advisories may be needed for portions of the
coast, especially Cape Cod and the islands.

Coastal Flooding...astronomical tides are very low, and will
likely preclude any inundation or erosion issues.

Weekend and Early Next Week...

Frontal wave exits northeast Saturday, with a dry slot
overspreading our region. Thus, drying trend begins Saturday.
Mainly dry Sunday, but can't rule out a few flurries or snow
showers, as shortwave trough moves across the area. Behind this
trough, mainly dry with temperatures trending near or below
normal, along with blustery west winds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High -
greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...High confidence.

VFR to start for most outside of locations across Cape Ann down
to SE MA where MVFR with localized IFR anticipated until roughly
09Z due to snow showers. Should not amount to much given this
activity is starting to diminish and lower in intensity. Should
see MVFR ceilings spreading into central/eastern MA terminals
toward daybreak as winds become NNE. Will have wind speeds of
5-10 kts.

Today...High confidence in trends, moderate in exact timing.

Mix of VFR/MVFR to start, but will be lowering to MVFR by
mid/late morning. Could lower to some localized IFR during the
afternoon as flow becomes more NE. May have some spotty rain
spreading into the coastal plain during the afternoon and snow
for the interior. Winds 5-15 kts with gusts of 15-25 kts.

Tonight...High confidence in trends, moderate in exact timing.

MVFR with borderline IFR becoming IFR with localized LIFR.
Elevational snow with rain elsewhere. Snowfall may be heavy at
times especially after 06Z across the higher terrain. ENE to E
winds at 10-20 kts with gusts of 20-40 kts. Expect the highest
gusts across the south coast and higher terrain.

Friday...Moderate confidence.

IFR with localized LIFR. Elevational snow continues with a cold
rain elsewhere. Winds out of the E/ENE at 15-25 kts and gusts of
25-45 kts. Should see the highest gusts across the coastal
plain.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. RA, chance SN, patchy BR,
slight chance FZRA.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts
up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN, slight chance FZRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SN.

Sunday through Monday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

10 PM Update...

Have converted the rest of the Gale Warnings to Small Craft
Advisories in the latest update. Forecast remains on track
otherwise.

Previous discussion...

Winds were diminishing a little faster than previously expected.
Converted some of the Gale Warnings to Small Craft Advisories.
Expecting that remaining Gale Warnings will be able to be
converted later this evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions
likely to persist across the eastern coastal water through
Thursday.

Tonight...High confidence.

Winds N at 15-30 kt to start, decreasing to 15-20 kt by
midnight and shifting to the NNE. Gusts of 20-30 kts after
midnight. Seas diminish to 6-8 ft for the outer waters after
midnight and 3-6 ft for the inner.

Thursday...High confidence.

Winds out of the NNE to NE at 10-20 kts with gusts of 15-25 kts.
Seas 7-9 ft for the eastern outer waters and 3-7 ft across the
interior waters. Light rain showers may spread in late in the
afternoon.

Thursday night...High confidence.

SHRA. E winds increase to Small Craft Advisory criteria early
in the evening, up to 30-34 kt by 12Z. Seas 7-10 ft.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Chance of rain, patchy fog.
Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of
rain.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of
rain.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Saturday
     morning for CTZ002.
MA...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Saturday
     morning for MAZ002-008-009.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ230-235>237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231-
     232-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ233-
     234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/BL/BW
NEAR TERM...Belk/BL/BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...Belk/BW
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 14, 4:08 PM EST, 11 hours 18 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
408 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

CTZ003-004-MAZ004>007-010>024-026-RIZ001>008-152115-
Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Nantucket MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
408 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ002-152115-
Hartford CT-
408 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ002-008-009-152115-
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
408 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ003-152115-
Eastern Franklin MA-
408 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-233>237-256-152115-
Boston Harbor-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
408 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255-152115-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
408 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 15, 3:25 AM ESTGale WarningBOX60 hr
Dec 15, 3:25 AM ESTWind AdvisoryBOXBarnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Middlesex, Nantucket and 3 more42 hr
Dec 15, 3:26 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBOXFranklin, Middlesex, Worcester52 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Massachusetts, 2022Every winter storm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.