Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

874 
WWUS41 KBOX 241800
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
100 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

CTZ002>004-MAZ017>019-RIZ001-002-250900-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0008.220225T0500Z-220226T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.WS.W.0006.220225T0500Z-220226T0500Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Foster, 
Smithfield, and Providence
100 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a 
  light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, southeastern 
  Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region between 1
  and 4 am Friday morning. The snow will quickly become heavy
  falling at the rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times through
  daybreak Friday. The snow will change to sleet from south to
  north Friday morning and some light freezing rain is possible
  across northern Connecticut and northwest Rhode Island.
  Precipitation may change to a period of plain rain across far
  southeast New England. Mixed precipitation will change back to
  all snow before ending later Friday afternoon and early evening.
  This will result in a flash freeze across portions of Rhode
  Island and Southeast Massachusetts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ002>016-026-250900-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0006.220225T0500Z-220226T0500Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester, 
Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, 
Milford, Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, 
Quincy, and Ayer
100 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 
  12 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, eastern, northeastern and western 
  Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region between 1
  and 4 am Friday morning. The snow will quickly become heavy
  falling at the rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times Friday
  morning. This will have a significant impact the Friday morning
  commute. The snow may change to a period of sleet near and
  especially south of the Massachusetts Turnpike by mid Friday
  morning. Any mixed precipitation should change back to snow Friday
  afternoon and early evening before ending.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ020>022-RIZ003>007-250900-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0008.220225T0500Z-220226T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0012.220225T0500Z-220226T0500Z/
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-
Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-
Newport RI-
Including the cities of Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, 
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Coventry, West Greenwich, 
East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, 
Westerly, and Newport
100 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeastern Massachusetts and northern 
  and southern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region between 1
  and 3 am Friday morning. The snow will quickly become heavy, but
  change to sleet and rain by early to mid morning on Friday. 
  Precipitation may change back to a period of snow later Friday 
  afternoon and early evening along with a potential flash freeze.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

BL

457 
WWUS41 KBOX 250800
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
300 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

MAZ002>016-026-252100-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220226T0500Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester, 
Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, 
Milford, Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, 
Quincy, and Ayer
300 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and some sleet possible too generally near and
  south of the Massachusetts turnpike. Snow accumulations of 6 to
  12 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, eastern, northeastern and western 
  Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult this morning. 1 to 2
  inch per hour snowfall rates will develop early this morning. 
  This will result in a very difficult morning commute. Snow will 
  change to sleet later this morning near and south of the 
  Massachusetts Turnpike. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Improving conditions this afternoon
  especially along the coast as temps rise above freezing and
  precipitation becomes rather light. A second round of mainly
  light snow will result in renewed slippery travel late this 
  afternoon and evening with the focus across central and eastern 
  Massachusetts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ017>019-RIZ001-002-252100-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220226T0500Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Foster, 
Smithfield, and Providence
300 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy Snow changing to sleet with a bit of light freezing
  drizzle possible across northwest Rhode Island and northern
  Connecticut this afternoon as well. Snow accumulations of 4 to 
  7 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze of ice in some 
  spots.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, southeastern 
  Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult this morning. 1 to 2
  inch per hour snowfall rates will develop early this morning.
  This will result in a very difficult morning commute. Snow will
  change to sleet by mid to late morning with a bit of light
  freezing rain/freezing drizzle possible across northwest Rhode
  Island and Connecticut.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Improving conditions this afternoon
  especially along the coast as temps rise above freezing and
  precipitation becomes rather light. A second round of mainly
  light snow may result in renewed slippery travel late this
  afternoon and evening with the focus across southeast
  Massachusetts and Rhode Island. A flash freeze is also expected
  late this afternoon and early this evening along the coast as 
  above freezing temperatures fall back into the 20s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ020>022-RIZ003>007-252100-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-220226T0500Z/
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-
Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-
Newport RI-
Including the cities of Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, 
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Coventry, West Greenwich, 
East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, 
Westerly, and Newport
300 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and Sleet. Snow and sleet accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...The south coasts of both Massachusetts and Rhode Island
  including Cape Cod.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Snow and sleet will result in difficult travel this
  morning. Mixed precipitation will change mainly to rain by late
  this morning with improving conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A flash freeze is expected late this
  afternoon into early this evening as above freezing temperatures
  fall back into the 20s. A second round of mainly light snow late
  this afternoon and evening may result in renewed slippery
  travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

Frank

754 
WWUS41 KBOX 251558
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1058 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

MAZ002>016-026-260500-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220226T0500Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester, 
Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, 
Milford, Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, 
Quincy, and Ayer
1058 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and some sleet possible too generally near and
  south of the Massachusetts turnpike. Snow accumulations of 6 to
  10 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, eastern, northeastern and western 
  Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel will continue to be difficult this morning and
  early afternoon as snow mixes with sleet. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Improving conditions this afternoon 
  especially along the coast as temps rise above freezing and 
  precipitation becomes rather light. A second round of mainly 
  light snow will result in renewed slippery travel late this 
  afternoon and evening with the focus across central and 
  eastern Massachusetts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ017>019-RIZ001-002-260500-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220226T0500Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Foster, 
Smithfield, and Providence
1058 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and sleet with a bit of light freezing drizzle 
  possible across northwest Rhode Island and northern Connecticut 
  this afternoon as well. Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and 
  ice accumulations of a light glaze of ice in some spots.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, southeastern 
  Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult this morning and early
  afternoon. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Improving conditions this afternoon 
  especially along the coast as temps rise above freezing and 
  precipitation becomes rather light. A second round of mainly 
  light snow may result in renewed slippery travel late this 
  afternoon and evening with the focus across southeast 
  Massachusetts and Rhode Island. A flash freeze is also 
  expected late this afternoon and early this evening along the 
  coast as above freezing temperatures fall back into the 20s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ020>022-RIZ003>007-252000-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-220225T2000Z/
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-
Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-
Newport RI-
Including the cities of Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, 
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Coventry, West Greenwich, 
East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, 
Westerly, and Newport
1058 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and Sleet. Snow and sleet accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...The south coasts of both Massachusetts and Rhode 
  Island including Cape Cod.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Snow and sleet will result in difficult travel this 
  morning. Mixed precipitation will change mainly to rain by 
  late this morning with improving conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A flash freeze is expected late this 
  afternoon into early this evening as above freezing 
  temperatures fall back into the 20s. A second round of mainly 
  light snow late this afternoon and evening may result in 
  renewed slippery travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

257 
WWUS41 KBOX 252020
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
320 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>019-026-RIZ001-002-252130-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220226T0500Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester, 
Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, 
Milford, Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, 
Quincy, Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Ayer, Foster, Smithfield, 
and Providence
320 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

MAZ020>022-RIZ003>007-252130-
/O.EXP.KBOX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-220225T2000Z/
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-
Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-
Newport RI-
Including the cities of Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, 
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Coventry, West Greenwich, 
East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, 
Westerly, and Newport
320 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
939 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy tonight, but dry with a return to seasonable
temperatures. Dry and quiet weather on Thursday with near to
slightly cooler than normal temperatures. A winter storm will
bring a significant snowfall to much of the region late Thursday
night into Friday with some mixed precipitation possible too
south of the Massachusetts turnpike. This will impact the Friday
morning commute. Winter Storm Watches are posted for most of
the region. Below normal temperatures for this weekend with
drier weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

940 PM Update...

Much colder air continues to work into the region on gusty
northwest winds. Northwest wind gusts were on the order of 25
to 45 mph across the region. We should see these gusts begin to
slacken overnight as the low level jet diminishes and the
pressure gradient weakens. Low temperatures should bottom out
mainly in the upper teens to the middle 20s by daybreak. Dry
weather will prevail, but model cross sections continue to
indicate an abundance of mid-high level cloudiness overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Highlights...

* Main concern during this period is the Winter Storm impacting
  the region on Thursday night through Friday.

* Dry and quiet weather on Thursday with near to slightly cooler
  than seasonable temperatures.

Ridge axis builds into the central Great Lakes on Thursday. The
ridge builds into Ontario late on Thursday and Quebec by Friday.
A trough will lift from the Mid Mississippi River Valley late on
Thursday into the central Great Lakes by early Friday and
northern New England by late on Friday. High pressure builds
into Quebec and nudges into the region for Thursday. The high
remains over Quebec/eastern Canada through Friday. Low pressure
will lift across the TN/OH Valley on Thursday into the eastern
Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic Thursday night. A secondary low will
develop along the south coast and lift offshore by late in the
day.

Thursday...

High pressure in control through this period as it nudges into
the region. Will have clearing skies and light N/NNE winds. Will
be a big change temperature wise with highs in the 30s across
the region.

Thursday night through Friday...

Not a whole lot of a change from the previous shift to the
forecast for this period. Will have increasing mid/high clouds
with snow spreading in from southwest to northeast late on
Thursday into early Friday. Guidance has come in just a touch
slower with the precipitation onset, so did dial back
precipitation chances Thursday evening. Will become likely
late Thursday into early Friday morning before tapering off
later on Friday/Friday night.

Have leaned toward the vast majority of the guidance, which
results in confidence in snow totals being the highest north of
the MA Pike. Less certain in totals along and south of the MA
Pike. The reason for the uncertainty is with regards to nose of
warmer air aloft punching into the region per the 925-700 Layer
Max temps Friday morning. Have thrown out the NAM/NAMNest
guidance at this point in time as it appears overly aggressive
with its warm nose punching in. If correct then there would be
Ptype issues for much of MA vs just along/south of the MA Pike.
The aggressive northward push of the warmer air is likely due
to the stronger 850/925 jet impinging a bit further northward
than other pieces of guidance along with the secondary low
tracking over the south coast vs south of the south coast. Need
to keep a close eye on this because if other high resolution
guidance follows the NAM/NAMNest then snowfall totals will need
to be reduced as there will be more wintry mix/rain vs snow. Can
see this clearly when looking at the SREF/WPC Superensemble
plume guidance with snowfall amounts across interior MA vs our
south coast.

Regardless of the warm nose pushing in am anticipating everyone
to start off as all snow Thursday night. Snowfall intensity
will quickly pick up after midnight roughly from west to east.
Will have the risk of 1" and perhaps some 2" per hour snowfall
rates as we have strong speed convergence at 850 hPa and lift
within the dendritic growth region. This also lines up with
solid frontogenetical forcing in the 1000-850 hPa layer. Still
quite difficult to pinpoint a fgen band this far out, but this
will bring the greatest risk of those 1" or greater per hour
snowfall rates. This will cause issues for the Friday morning
commute. Think that there could still potentially be issues
during the afternoon/evening, but snowfall should be lighter
later in the day.

Lastly, have adjusted the SLR away from the default NBM as it
initially starts off too low. Eventually it looks more
reasonable during late morning/afternoon coinciding with the
warm nose aloft punching in. Do think there is the risk of 12+
inches mainly across the MA/NH/VT border, but haven't gone quite
that high at this point in time. Have held off from a Winter
Storm Warning at this point in time as global guidance can tend
to underestimate the warm nose pushing in, which could result in
lower total due to more of a mixed bag of precip. Will need to
make these decisions in future updates as we get into more of
the higher resolution guidance window. Stay tuned for future
updates especially if you are traveling on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Highlights...

* Snow showers wrap from west to east Friday night. Lingering ocean
  effect snow showers possible through early Saturday morning for
  the Cape and Islands.

* Moisture starved cold front passes through Sunday afternoon with
  an isolated snow shower or two primarily across northwestern MA.

* Fairly quiet week ahead as surface high pressure sets up shop
  across the eastern half of the United States.

Details...

Friday night through Saturday night...

Our coastal storm continues to move off to the east as surface high
pressure build to our west. As the low departs the region it will
take with it much of the moisture. PWAT values Friday night into
Saturday morning fall below a third of an inch, the higher values
closer to a third of an inch linger over the Cape and Islands. Given
the tight pressure gradient during the early evening hours we expect
gusty north northeast winds around 30 knots. Couple that wind
direction and steep low level lapse rates between 8.5C/km it's
likely to have lingering ocean effect snow showers well into the
overnight hours. Across the interior, the wind direction are out of
the northwest and ushers in cooler than normal overnight
temperatures in the lower teens. Coastal locations fall to the upper
teens to low 20s, Cape and Islands flirt with the mid to upper 20s.

Model sounding show mid levels drying out during the day on Saturday
which will allow for more sunshine, especially across western zones.
Eastern zones could hold on to the clouds cover a bit later into the
day. Temperature wise, forecast for 925mb are between -8C and -11C
which should mix down to highs in the upper 20s across the interior
to near freezing at the coast. The one caveat will be how much snow
cover we have comes Saturday as less snow cover on the ground could
lead to slightly warmer temperatures and vice versa if we have more
snow cover on the ground.

Height begin to fall Saturday night as surface low pressure to the
north moves across Quebec. Clouds generally increase from the north
to south late night into early Sunday. Winds are generally light and
out of the southwest with lows in the upper teens to low 20s.

Sunday and Sunday night...

A surface low moves out of Hudson Bay in Canada into northern New
England with a trailing cold front. Increased cloud cover and a few
snow flurries or an isolated snow shower are possible across
northwestern Massachusetts. There isn't a ton of moisture associated
with the front, PWATs are around a quarter to a third of an inch.
At this time, any snowfall across NW MA would be less than an inch.

Temperatures aloft continue to warm, 925mb temperatures range from
0C to -3C which mixes down to the upper 30s across the interior and
low 40s at the coast.

Monday through Wednesday...

Fairly quiet period of weather as surface high pressure builds in
across much of the eastern half of the United States. A mid level
through moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday which gives us a
chance for light precip. Given the complex first half of the
forecast I didn't stray from the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR conditions. WNW to NW winds with gusts of 25-35 knots early
this evening. Gusts diminish to 15-20 kts after midnight.

Thursday...High confidence.

VFR with N/NNE winds of 5-10 knots.

Thursday Night...High confidence.

VFR to start, but conditions deteriorating to MVFR/IFR as snow
moves in from SW to NE. May see a wintry mix of snow/sleet
along the south coast toward daybreak, and generally snow
elsewhere. Snowfall may be heavy in the 08-12Z range where 1"
per hour snow rates are possible along the north of the MA Pike.
With the band of heavier snowfall there is the risk of
LIFR/VLIFR conditions. Winds shifting to the E at 5-10 kts.
There may be some gusts up to 15-20 kts along the immediate
coastline toward daybreak.

BOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

BDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 30 kt. SN, PL, RA, FZRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SN.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

Cold front crosses the waters shifting winds from the W to the
WNW/NW. Will have speeds of 20-30 kts to start with gusts of
25-35 kts. Have hoisted a Gale Warning across NE/E waters due to
gusty winds in wake of the front until late tonight. Elsewhere
there could be an occasional Gale Force gust or two, but wind
speeds/gusts will be diminishing as the night progress. After
midnight gusts lower to 15-25 kts. Seas 4-8 ft.

Thursday...High confidence.

Winds shifting to the N/NNE at 5-10 kts. Could see some 15-20
kt gusts during the morning. Seas diminishing to 2-4 ft.

Thursday night...High confidence.

Rain spreads in for the southern waters and snow for the eastern
waters late. Seas building across the southern waters to 3-5 ft
and 2-4 ft for the eastern waters. Easterly winds increasing as
the night progresses with speeds of 10-20 kts after midnight.
Gusts of 20-30 kts after midnight with gusts around 30 kts for
the southern waters toward daybreak.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of
snow.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     evening for MAZ002>022-026.
RI...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     evening for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for ANZ231>235-
     237.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ250-251-254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ255-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BL/Gaucher
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM...Gaucher
AVIATION...BL/Gaucher
MARINE...BL/Gaucher

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
415 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

CTZ002>004-MAZ003>007-010>022-026-RIZ001>007-242115-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Franklin MA-
Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-
Eastern Essex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
415 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, northern Rhode
Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ002-008-009-242115-
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
415 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ023-024-RIZ008-242115-
Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
415 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts
and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-255-256-242115-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
415 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ250-251-254-242115-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
415 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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