Alert archive / Massachusetts / Winter Storm Warnings in 2022

Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

January 16, 20225 counties in Massachusetts

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this winter storm warning at Jan 16, 2022, 3:21 AM EST for 5 counties in Massachusetts. It took effect at Jan 17, 2022, 12:00 AM EST. It was in force for 12 hr. 60 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jan 16, 2022, 3:21 AM EST (08:21 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 17, 2022, 12:00 AM EST
Expired
Jan 17, 2022, 12:00 PM EST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Counties Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Worcester County, MA

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jan 17, 1:35 AM ESTSNOW 0.22 Wnw Hampden, MA
Jan 17, 4:25 AM ESTSNOW 1.42 E West Springfield, MA
Jan 17, 4:31 AM ESTSNOW 1.31 Ssw East Longmeadow, MA
Jan 17, 4:33 AM ESTSNOW 21 Nw Hopkinton, MA
Jan 17, 4:37 AM ESTSNOW 2.53 Wsw Whitinsville, MA
Jan 17, 5:08 AM ESTSNOW 31 N Grafton, MA
Jan 17, 5:15 AM ESTSNOW 52 N Southwick, MA
Jan 17, 5:18 AM ESTSNOW 3.51 S Westfield, MA
Jan 17, 5:21 AM ESTSNOW 2.92 Nne Westborough, MA
Jan 17, 5:24 AM ESTSNOW 2.81 Wnw Pepperell, MA
Jan 17, 5:30 AM ESTSNOW 1.52 Sw Carlisle, MA
Jan 17, 5:30 AM ESTSNOW 41 E Easthampton, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-HS-48 EASTHAMPTON 1.0 E.
Jan 17, 5:33 AM ESTSNOW 31 Ese Fitchburg, MA
Jan 17, 5:41 AM ESTSNOW 2.51 Nw Stow, MA
Jan 17, 5:46 AM ESTSNOW 4.11 Ssw Boylston, MA
Jan 17, 5:48 AM ESTSNOW 21 Nw Milford, MA
Jan 17, 5:57 AM ESTSNOW 51 Nnw Sterling, MA
Jan 17, 5:58 AM ESTSNOW 5.51 S Holden, MA
Jan 17, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 22 W Lowell, MACO-OP OBSERVER STATION LLLM3 LOWELL.
Jan 17, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.53 Se Westfield, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-HD-28 WESTFIELD 2.8 SE.
Jan 17, 6:30 AM ESTSNOW 11 Nw Sherborn, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-MD-158 SHERBORN 1.1 NW.
Jan 17, 6:30 AM ESTSNOW 4.71 Se Sunderland, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-FR-12 SUNDERLAND 1.3 SE.
Jan 17, 6:35 AM ESTSNOW 61 Wsw Williamsburg, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-HS-8 WILLIAMSBURG 1.2 WSW.
Jan 17, 6:55 AM ESTSNOW 6.91 Wsw Westminster, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-WR-44 WESTMINSTER 0.6 WSW.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 11 S Holliston, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-MD-42 HOLLISTON 0.8 S.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 1.62 Nne Douglas, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-WR-100 DOUGLAS 1.9 NNE.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.41 Sw Acton, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-MD-12 ACTON 1.3 SW.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.51 Nw Hudson, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-MD-115 HUDSON 1.4 NW.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.51 Sw Bernardston, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-FR-35 BERNARDSTON 1.0 SW.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.5Upton, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-WR-90 UPTON 0.4 NE.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.72 Wsw Warren, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-WR-75 WARREN 2.4 WSW.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 32 Wnw Pelham, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-FR-38 SHUTESBURY 2.9 SW.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 3.21 Ese Maynard, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-MD-51 MAYNARD 0.7 ESE.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 3.41 Ese Northampton, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-HS-21 NORTHAMPTON 0.6 ESE.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 3.52 Se Sunderland, MACO-OP OBSERVER STATION SDLM3 SUNDERLAND.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.1Ayer, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-MD-25 AYER 0.1 SW.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.51 Ssw Holden, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-WR-89 HOLDEN 0.9 SSE.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.5Easthampton, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-HS-26 EASTHAMPTON 0.5 SW.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 51 E Conway, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-FR-46 CONWAY 1.2 E.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.41 Nne Barre, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-WR-54 BARRE 1.4 NNE.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.54 Ene Goshen, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-FR-43 CONWAY 5.0 SSW.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 63 Ene Princeton, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-WR-56 STERLING 4.3 NW.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 6.23 Nw Conway, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-FR-13 CONWAY 2.9 NW.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 6.54 Wnw Colrain, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-FR-31 COLRAIN 3.7 WNW.
Jan 17, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 8.13 Nne Rowe, MACO-OP OBSERVER STATION ROWM3 ROWE.
Jan 17, 7:15 AM ESTSNOW 2.41 Nw Amherst, MACO-OP OBSERVER STATION AHRM3 AMHERST.
Jan 17, 7:15 AM ESTSNOW 63 Ne Princeton, MA
Jan 17, 7:20 AM ESTSNOW 3.52 Se Worcester, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-WR-81 WORCESTER 1.6 SE.
Jan 17, 7:27 AM ESTSNOW 62 Sw Colrain, MA
Jan 17, 7:28 AM ESTSNOW 2Carlisle, MA
Jan 17, 7:28 AM ESTSNOW 6Sterling, MA
Jan 17, 7:30 AM ESTSNOW 4.53 Ese Greenfield, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-FR-36 MONTAGUE 3.4 NNW.
Jan 17, 7:30 AM ESTSNOW 61 Ne Shirley, MA
Jan 17, 7:47 AM ESTSNOW 52 Sw Athol, MA
Jan 17, 7:54 AM ESTSNOW 72 Sw Westhampton, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-HS-2 WESTHAMPTON 1.8 SW.
Jan 17, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 12 Nw Hampden, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-HD-30 HAMPDEN 2.0 NW.
Jan 17, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 3.32 N Northborough, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-WR-42 NORTHBOROUGH 2.3 N.
Jan 17, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.51 Sw Conway, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-FR-10 CONWAY 0.9 SW.
Jan 17, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 6.82 Ese Buckland, MACOCORAHS STATION MA-FR-17 BUCKLAND 1.8 ESE.
Jan 17, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 7Westhampton, MATRAINED SPOTTER.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 176 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2022-01-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2022-01-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -177 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1557 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
75 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-177 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

284 
WWUS41 KBOX 160821
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
321 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

MAZ002-008-009-162130-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0004.220117T0500Z-220118T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0003.220117T0500Z-220117T1700Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
321 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour are 
  expected at times after midnight through daybreak. The snow will
  change to rain by mid morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ004-026-162130-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0004.220117T0500Z-220118T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0003.220117T0500Z-220117T1700Z/
Northern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Barre, Fitchburg, and Ayer
321 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches. Locally up to 8 inches in the higher elevation near the
  New Hampshire border. 

* WHERE...Northern Worcester MA and Northern Middlesex MA 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
  are expected at times after midnight. The snow will change to
  rain between 6 and 9 am.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ003-162130-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0004.220117T0500Z-220118T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0006.220117T0500Z-220117T1200Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield and Orange
321 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches. 

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin MA County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will change to rain by daybreak. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ005-010>012-162130-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0006.220117T0500Z-220117T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Framingham, Lowell, Amherst, Northampton, 
Springfield, Milford, and Worcester
321 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4
  inches. A light glaze of icing is also possible. 

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut and central, western
  and interior northeast Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will change to rain between 3 and
  6 AM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$
3 follow-up statements
089 
WWUS41 KBOX 162051
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
351 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

MAZ002-008-009-171000-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0003.220117T0500Z-220117T1700Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
351 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO NOON EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 
  12 inches.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour 
  are expected at times after midnight through daybreak. The 
  snow will change to rain by mid morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ004-026-171000-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0003.220117T0500Z-220117T1700Z/
Northern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Barre, Fitchburg, and Ayer
351 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO NOON EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches. Locally up to 8 inches in the higher elevation near 
  the New Hampshire border.

* WHERE...Northern Worcester MA and Northern Middlesex MA 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour 
  are expected at times after midnight. The snow will change to 
  rain between 6 and 9 am.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ003-005-010>012-171000-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0006.220117T0500Z-220117T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Franklin MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Greenfield, Orange, Framingham, Lowell, 
Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, and Worcester
351 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 
  inches. A light glaze of icing is also possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut and central, western 
  and interior northeast Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will change to rain between 3 
  and 6 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$
033 
WWUS41 KBOX 170834
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
334 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

MAZ002-008-009-171700-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220117T1700Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
334 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 6 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Western Hampshire MA, Western Hampden MA and Western 
  Franklin MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
  are possible, especially across the east-facing slopes of the
  Berkshires. Localized blowing snow could also lead to reduced
  visibilities. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ004-026-171700-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220117T1700Z/
Northern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Barre, Fitchburg, and Ayer
334 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow or mixed precipitation. Additional snow
  accumulations of 1 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Northern Worcester MA and Northern Middlesex MA 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
  are possible, especially across the northern Worcester Hills.
  Localized blowing snow could also lead to reduced visibilities. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ003-005-010>012-171200-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220117T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Franklin MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Greenfield, Orange, Framingham, Lowell, 
Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, and Worcester
334 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow and sleet
  accumulations of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of a glaze
  to few hundredths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut and central, eastern 
  and western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on icy road conditions into the
  morning commute. Even as air temperatures rise above freezing,
  ground temperatures will be slow to rise above freezing until
  after daybreak due to the recent stretch of cold weather.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$
193 
WWUS41 KBOX 171510
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1010 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

MAZ004-026-171615-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220117T1700Z/
Northern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Barre, Fitchburg, and Ayer
1010 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures have warmed above freezing and precipitation has
changed to rain. 

$$

MAZ002-008-009-171700-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220117T1700Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
1010 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one
  inch are possible in the highest elevations. 

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Jan 16, 2:48 AM EST, 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 16, 2:48 AM EST, 33 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
248 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure settles over the region tonight, yielding
dry weather and light winds, but frigid temperatures. A strong
storm will impact the region late Sunday night into Monday, with
a heavy wintry mix well inland and heavy rain in Rhode Island
and eastern Massachusetts, with strong to damaging winds along
the coast as well as coastal flooding. Blustery and cold weather
returns Tuesday followed by milder air Wednesday. A weak
frontal system moves through the region Wednesday night followed
by colder weather Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
910 PM update...

Temps in the single numbers with very dry airmass with dewpoints
in the teens below zero. As high pres builds in from the west
and winds become light, temps will plummet further. Current
forecast on track with mins below zero across much of SNE except
along the immediate coast.

Previous discussion...

Arctic airmass remains over the region tonight. The only
improvement will be diminishing winds, as 1030+ mb arctic high
advects across the area. Thus, wind chills not an issue tonight.
Nevertheless, frigid temps with lows mainly -5 to +5 across the
region, except as cold as -10 to -15 over northwest MA. Not
record breaking (although BDL could come within a few degrees)
but nonetheless very cold. +10 to +15 across the outer Cape and
Islands. Given ideal radiational cooling conditions, derived
mins from the colder MOS guidance and then blended the coldest
guidance for the typically colder locations. Didn't follow the
coldest guidance exclusively given the lack of deep snow cover
across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
345 pm update...

Sunday...

Short wave ridging provides another dry but cold day across SNE.
Arctic high pressure overhead, so light winds and mostly sunny
conditions (high clouds arrive late in the day) will take some of
the edge off the cold temps. 925 mb temps rebound to about -9C by
18z and with model soundings indicating mixing close to this level,
this should support highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, mid 20s
high terrain. Still colder than normal but a big improvement over
Saturday.

Sunday night and Monday...

*** Strong to Damaging Winds Possible Monday Morning ***
*** Moderate Coastal Flooding Possible Monday Morning ***
*** Wintry Mix well inland, heavy rain RI & eastern MA ***

Overview...

Potent cyclone moving up the eastern seaboard Sunday night and
Monday, with system continuing to deepen/intensify per height falls
as it traverses across PA-eastern NY into VT/NH. Given the low and
mid level circulation is tracking west of SNE, warm nose around 850
mb will flood the mid levels with warm air. Thus, ptype will
transition fairly quickly from snow to a wintry mix to rain. Hence,
snow totals will be restricted to 5 to 9 inches across western MA
into the northern Worcester Hills. Farther south and east, the
greater concern is the risk for strong to damaging winds along the
immediate coast, including potential moderate coastal flooding. All
of this in response to a strengthening low level jet via strong
height falls, as the system passes to our west. Furthermore,
anomalous Atlantic moisture coupled with elevated instability will
yield a period of very heavy rain Monday morning and potential minor
street/highway flooding. This period of heavy rain may increase the
wind threat, helping to bring stronger winds aloft to the surface.
We will break down each weather hazard below.

Strong to Damaging Winds...

As closed low tracks across eastern PA/NY into VT/NH, strong height
falls induces an increasing low level ESE jet at 925 mb, with speeds
up to 85 kt as it exits eastern MA Monday morning. Obviously not all
of this wind mixes down, but BUFKIT time sections indicate 50-60 kt
of wind just 500 ft off the ground along the entire coastline from
about 09z to 15z, from southwest to northeast. Strongest winds
likely across Cape Ann, as low level jet continues to intensity as
it departs the region. Other storm attribute enhancing the wind
threat, will be a very robust pressure rise/fall couplet moving
across the region, as sub 980 mb low tracks across northwest MA.
This couplet will enhance the isallobaric wind component.
Furthermore, some of the high resolution models simulated
reflectivity indicates some elevated convective elements embedded in
the heavy rain bands Monday morning.  These heavy downpours may aid
very strong winds aloft to mix to the surface. Given all these
favorable parameters, a high wind watch has been issued for the
entire coastline, with highest confidence from Cape Cod northward to
Cape Ann.

Ptype/Snow Accumulations...

With storm track northwest of the region, especially the low and mid
level circulation, mid level warm air (850-750 mb) nose will advect
northward unimpeded, changing snow to sleet, freezing rain and
eventually all rain. Therefore, significant snow accumulations will
be confined to western MA and northern Worcester county, where 5-9
inches are possible.  Less snowfall south and east, with very little
if any in RI and eastern MA, including the BOS-PVD corridor. The new
12z EC came in colder/slightly farther east track and supports more
snow. However, the bulk of the guidance including the
NAM/GFS/CMC/HREF are farther west and warmer. Given low and mid
level circulations are tracking west of SNE, leaning away from the
colder 12z EC. Although, event is still 48 hours away, so can't
completely discount the 12z EC.

Heavy Rain Threat...

PWATs surging to over 1 inch (300% of normal!) across RI and
eastern MA, in response to 75-85 kt ESE jet off the Atlantic
should act as a fire hose of moisture into SNE. This combined
with some elevated instability, should result in a 3-6 hour
period of very heavy rainfall, with rainfall totals of 1-2
inches in this time period. Isolated 2+ amounts possible. This
seems plausible given the simulated reflectivity from some of
the hi res models. Hence, could be some slow travel for the
Monday morning commute across RI/eastern MA, with street and
highway flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Big Picture...

Shortwave moves over New England tonight and Tuesday. Brief ridge
slips over the region Wednesday.  Shortwave drops down from Northern
Canada to cross New England late in the week.

Upper heights are below normal values Tuesday, then normal
Wednesday. The GFS brings colder than normal values for Thursday and
Friday, while the ECMWF is on the cold side of the normal range.
Expect variable temperatures through the period, although colder
than normal Tuesday and Thursday-Friday.

Model mass fields are in agreement Tuesday and Wednesday, then
diverge late week and are in disagreement Saturday. Confidence is
moderate-high midweek, trending to low by Saturday.

Details...

Monday night-Tuesday...

Upper trough trailing the Monday system will move over New England
Monday night, then move off to the east Tuesday. The trough carries
a minus 36C cold pool, cold enough to produce instability. But the
airmass will be dry, with PW values at 0.2 inches Monday night and
below 0.1 inches Tuesday. Expect lingering clouds and showers early
Monday night, then clearing skies late at night and on Tuesday.
Winds at 2000 feet are forecast at 25 to 35 kt/30 to 40 mph, so
expect gusty west to northwest winds, especially on Tuesday.

Pressure gradient relaxes later in the day as high pressure builds
in from the west.

Wednesday through Friday...

Weather system races across the northern tier of the USA, crossing
the Great Lakes Wednesday and turning up the St Lawrence Valley
Wednesday night. Warm front leading this system will move through
Srn New England Wednesday midday. The passing low will then swing a
cold front through during Wednesday night. PW values climb along and
ahead of the front, reaching 0.75 inches. This is well above the
January average near 0.4 inches, so will go with chance pops for
rain/snow showers Wednesday night.

Northwest winds behind the cold front will bring colder air into the
region for Thursday and Friday. Colder drier air will mean clearing
skies for both days. However, the movement of the cold air over the
warmer ocean water may lead to ocean-effect clouds and snow showers.
High temperatures will be below freezing northwest Thursday and
everywhere Friday, while min temps will be in the single numbers
Thursday night and Friday night.

Mixing reaches near 925-mb, with temperatures at that level near
minus 2C Wednesday, minus 6 to 12C Thursday, and minus 14 to 18C
Friday.  Expect max temps 35 to 45 Wednesday, 25 to 40 Thursday, and
15 to 30 on Friday. Min temps in the single numbers and teens
Thursday night and Friday night.

Saturday...

The Wednesday night cold front will stall over the deep south. A
shortwave moves through the Deep South Friday and may generate
surface low pressure along the stalled front. Of the operational
models... the 00Z GFS shows that low moving east out to sea with
just ocean-effect snow showers near Cape Cod. On the other hand, the
00Z ECMWF shows the low pressure moving up the coast, then crossing
the 40N/70W benchmark. The ECMWF forecasts a broad shield of roughly
1.2 inches precipitation in an area of below-freezing temperatures
across Srn New England.  The 00Z GGEM runs the storm center right up
to the South Coast, with measureable pcpn covering all of New
England.

The forecast will bring either slight chance pops or low-end chance
pops to the region Saturday, with the highest pops along the South
Coast.

This is a Day 7 forecast, with all the uncertainty normally found
that far in the future. Will need to keep an eye on future model
runs regarding this system...does it move closer or farther away
from Srn New England. Forecast confidence for Saturday is low.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z update...

Through Today...High confidence.

VFR, but areas of low end VFR/MVFR cigs may develop along the
south coast and portions of CT late this afternoon. Winds
turning SE 5-10 kt this afternoon.

Tonight...High confidence on trends, lower on exact details.

Conditions lowering to MVFR 03-06z from west to east with snow
overspreading the region, except rain or a rain/snow mix along
the coast. Areas of IFR/LIFR after 06z with snow inland changing
to a wintry mix then rain. Rain in the coastal plain.
Increasing E wind along the coast with gusts 30-40 kt
developing after 06z and up to 50 kt by 12z along the immediate
coast. LLWS after 06z as strong ESE jet overspreads the area.

Monday...High confidence on trends, lower on exact details.

IFR/LIFR in the morning in periods of heavy rain, except a
wintry mix over the Berkshires. E/SE wind gusts 45-55 kt
Cape/Islands and along eastern MA coast in the morning, with
35-45 kt along I-95 corridor, then turning SW with gusts 25-35
kt in the afternoon. LLWS with very strong ESE jet over
eastern MA in the morning. Drying trend in the afternoon with
cigs improving to MVFR.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with
local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SN.

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

*** Storm Watch in effect for late Sun night/Monday morning RI
 and MA waters ***

Tonight...

1030+ mb arctic high crest over New England, resulting in
diminishing winds. Hence, ending the freezing spray threat.

Sunday...

Tranquil weather with light winds and subsiding seas, as high
pressure drifts across the SNE waters.

Sunday night...

Rain overspreads the waters reducing vsby. ESE winds increase
and after midnight ESE winds 20-30 kt, gusting up to 50 kt
toward morning.

Monday...

Sub 980 mb low tracks across northwest MA into VT/NH, with ESE
winds 20-30 kt, gusting up to 50 kt across the RI and MA waters
in the morning, then diminishing and becoming SW in the
afternoon. Rain ending in the afternoon, with improving vsbys.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 19 ft. Slight chance of rain. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to
15 ft. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of
rain. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to
3 nm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** Coastal Flood Warning in effect Monday Morning for the East
 Coast***
*** Coastal Flood Advisory in effect Monday morning for the
 South Coast***

Strong ESE (110-140 degs) winds 20-30 mph with gusts up to 60
mph along the coast at the time of high tide Monday morning,
will likely result in widespread minor flooding with possible
areas of moderate flooding from Nantucket to the MA/NH border.
Storm surge of 2-3 feet is likely at the time of high tide,
pushing many locations to near or slightly above flood stage.
These very strong winds will generate 15-25 ft seas just
offshore. These elevated water levels combined with large wave
action, may produce areas of moderate coastal flooding.

Headlines have been promoted to a Coastal Flood Warning for the
Eastern Massachusetts coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues
for the RI and Massachusetts South Coast. Highest confidence in
areas of moderate coastal flooding is across Cape Ann and
Plum Island. Storm surge values for this forecast were derived
from a blend of ESTOFS and Stevens Institute ensemble storm
surge guidance. Some sample points include -

Boston total water level - 12.5 ft to 13.0 ft.
Nantucket total water level - 5.0 ft to 5.5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST
     Monday for CTZ002>004.
MA...High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for MAZ020-021.
     High Wind Warning from 1 AM to noon EST Monday for MAZ007-015-
     016-019-022>024.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 9 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for MAZ007-
     015-016-019.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for MAZ005-006-013-
     014-017-018.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST
     Monday for MAZ003-005-010>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for MAZ020.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon EST Monday
     for MAZ002-004-008-009-026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for
     MAZ022>024.
RI...High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for RIZ006>008.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for RIZ001>005.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Monday for ANZ232>237-255-
     256.
     Storm Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EST Monday for ANZ230.
     Storm Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ231-250-251-
     254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/Nocera
NEAR TERM...KJC/Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/Nocera
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 15, 4:32 PM EST, 10 hours 49 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
432 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

MAZ002>004-008-009-026-162145-
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
432 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Massachusetts,
eastern Massachusetts and western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ002>004-MAZ005-006-010>014-017-018-RIZ001>005-162145-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
432 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts and northern
Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024-162145-
Eastern Essex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
432 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts,
northeastern Massachusetts and southeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.
   Coastal Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ020-021-RIZ006>008-162145-
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
432 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts
and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-162145-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
432 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/nwsboston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 16, 2:39 AM ESTStorm WarningBOX34 hr
Jan 16, 2:48 AM ESTHigh Wind WarningBOXBarnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Nantucket, Norfolk and 2 more33 hr
Jan 16, 2:48 AM ESTWind AdvisoryBOXBristol, Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth31 hr
Jan 16, 3:02 AM ESTCoastal Flood WarningBOXEssex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk34 hr
Jan 16, 3:02 AM ESTCoastal Flood AdvisoryBOXBarnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Nantucket34 hr
Jan 16, 3:21 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBOXFranklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Worcester28 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Massachusetts, 2022Every winter storm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.