Gale Warning 43, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

016 
WHUS71 KBOX 292011
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
311 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

ANZ250-254>256-300915-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.221130T1800Z-221202T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
311 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  7 to 10 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters east 
  of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine 
  Sanctuary, Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA 
  to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 
  25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island 
  coastal waters, Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas 
  Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-251-300915-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.221130T1800Z-221202T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
311 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Massachusetts coastal waters and Rhode 
  Island coastal waters. 

* WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-300915-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.221130T1800Z-221202T0000Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
311 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In 
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

134 
WHUS71 KBOX 300804
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
304 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

ANZ250-254>256-302115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.221130T1800Z-221202T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
304 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 
  7 to 10 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters east 
  of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine 
  Sanctuary, Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA 
  to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 
  25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island 
  coastal waters, Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas 
  Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-251-302115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.221130T1800Z-221202T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
304 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Massachusetts coastal waters and Rhode 
  Island coastal waters. 

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-302115-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.221130T1800Z-221202T0000Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
304 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 
  2 to 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In 
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Frank

193 
WHUS71 KBOX 302119
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
419 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

ANZ250-254>256-011030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
419 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters east 
  of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine 
  Sanctuary, Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA 
  to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 
  25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island 
  coastal waters, Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas 
  Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-251-011030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
419 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Massachusetts coastal waters and Rhode 
  Island coastal waters. 

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-011030-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
419 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In 
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

993 
WHUS71 KBOX 010752
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
252 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

ANZ250-254>256-012100-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
252 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters east 
  of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine 
  Sanctuary, Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA 
  to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 
  25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island 
  coastal waters, Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas 
  Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-251-012100-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
252 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Massachusetts coastal waters and Rhode 
  Island coastal waters. 

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-012100-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
252 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  around 3 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In 
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Frank

159 
WHUS71 KBOX 012017
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
317 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

ANZ250-254>256-020000-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
317 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters east 
  of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine 
  Sanctuary, Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA 
  to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 
  25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island 
  coastal waters, Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas 
  Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-251-020000-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
317 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Massachusetts coastal waters and Rhode 
  Island coastal waters.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-020000-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
317 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  around 3 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In 
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

676 
WHUS71 KBOX 012353
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
653 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

ANZ250-254>256-020900-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0114.221201T2353Z-221202T0900Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
653 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters east 
  of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine 
  Sanctuary, Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA 
  to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 
  25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island 
  coastal waters, Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas 
  Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-251-020500-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0114.221201T2353Z-221202T0500Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
653 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Massachusetts coastal waters and Rhode 
  Island coastal waters. 

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-020100-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
653 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
115 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure builds in this evening, allowing for a chilly
night tonight followed by mostly sunny and seasonable conditions
on Tuesday. Winds increase from the south out ahead of a strong
cold front that crosses Southern New England late Wednesday into
overnight, with the potential for brief downpours and strong to
perhaps damaging winds. Gusty conditions continue on Thursday
along with cooler temperatures. A low pressure system brings
our next chance for precipitation on Saturday but the overall
weather pattern features quiet and seasonable conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

950 PM Update...

High pressure building in from the west will result in quiet but
chilly weather overnight. Skies will generally be mostly
clear outside of a bit of strato-cu spilling over into the
distant interior at times. There also will be some ocean effect
clouds developing overnight across the Cape/Nantucket given
modest SST differential with the northerly flow.

Low temps overnight should drop into the 20s to the lower 30s by
daybreak as northerly winds gradually diminish. The mild spots
will be across the outer Cape/Nantucket...where northerly flow
and some ocean effect clouds should keep overnight low temps in
the middle to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

Tuesday...

High pressure in control will lead to mostly clear skies. Winds will
gradually shift to southeast and eventually south as high pressure
moves offshore. With 925mb temps 0 to -3C, expect pretty seasonable
high temperature readings in the mid to upper 40s. Mix of sun and
clouds, perhaps staying mostly cloudy across Cape locations and even
eastern MA coast due to ocean effect cloud cover. Overall light
winds across the region so overall a very decent day for late
November standards.

Tuesday night...

As high pressure moves offshore, a very dynamic low pressure system
will be moving eastward from the Great Lakes and the Mississippi
River valley. This will support a tightening pressure gradient and
increasing flow out of the south. This strong southerly flow will
advect a warmer and more moist air mass over southern New England.
Overnight lows are tricky given that temps will likely fall into the
mid 20s to low 30s in the typically cold interior spots. But then
during the latter half of the overnight hours, as 925mb low level
jet increases to 25 to 30 kt, this will help to moisten the lower
levels with 925-850mb RH fields rising to between 50 and 75 percent
after midnight. Some mesoscale guidance are hinting at the potential
for some light wintry mix across the interior higher elevation where
it stays cold enough and where there is just enough moisture in the
boundary layer but no good snow growth aloft. Either way, any wintry
precipitation will be light and rather transient as warmer air
continues to move in towards daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights

* Strong to damaging winds Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
  evening. In addition, rainfall may be heavy at times and impact
  the PM commute.

* Rain ends Wednesday night, but winds remain strong behind the cold
  front on Thursday.

* Dry and seasonable on Friday. Strong winds possible along with
  rain Saturday into Sunday.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night...

A slightly negatively tilted trough will be near/just east of the
Mid Mississippi River Valley early on Wednesday. This will lift into
the Mid Atlantic/eastern Great Lakes by late Wednesday. A warm front
will lift into and through much of southern New England on Thursday,
while the strong cold front pushes through Wednesday night.

Main concern of this period is the strong to damaging wind gust
potential late on Wednesday into Wednesday night. In addition, will
see the heaviest rains coinciding with the evening commute. Expect
southerly winds to increase throughout the day as the low level jet
strengthens. Will see speeds increasing to roughly 40-70 kts at 925
hPa and 40-80 kts at 850 hPa. This is roughly 3-4 STD above normal
per the NAEFS wind speed and V-component of the wind late on
Wednesday. Do have some uncertainty given the southerly direction
with how much of this wind mixes down. Opted to bump up the wind
speeds/gusts from the default NBM and just above the NBM90th given
Bufkit profiles showing we could tap into winds as high at 40-45
kts. Am a bit concerned that with any heavier rain/showers that move
through that we could mix a bit higher. At this point have not
hoisted a Wind Advisory as am not confident enough, but suspect it
may be needed in a later update. Will note that very late on
Wednesday in wake of the cold front am more confident in the gusty
winds into Thursday. Still will have 35-50 kts of winds at 850 hPa,
which will not be difficult at all to mix down given the strong cold
air advection.

Given the strong southerly low level jet pushing in will also see
PWATs approaching roughly 2 STD above normal per the NAEFS guidance
as PWATs approach 1 inch. Fortunately any heavier rain/showers
should move through fairly quickly given the progressive nature of
the system, but does appear that the heaviest rains would coincide
with the Wed PM commute along with the strongest wind gusts. If
folks are traveling they may want to allow extra time to reach their
destination. Lastly, did bump up temps toward the 75th percentile of
guidance to account for the stronger mixing in the boundary layer.
This will result in a mild day across the region with highs ranging
from the mid 50s to the low 60s.

Thursday through Friday...

The negatively tilted trough over the eastern Great Lakes late on
Wednesday will lift through much of New England by late Thursday.
Behind this trough a shortwave ridge builds in into Friday. The
strong cold front will sweep through the rest of the region by late
Wednesday night/very early Thursday morning. High pressure will
begin to nudge in on Thursday, but really build in/south of the
region on Friday.

Main concern through this period is the strong winds persisting
through Thursday. Anticipate that any lingering rain/showers tapers
off, perhaps as some snow, during the early AM hours Thursday.
Confidence actually is much higher in the strong winds persisting
through Thursday than on Wednesday. Will see excellent mixing per
Bufkit soundings through the day with W/WNW cold air advection. Will
see roughly 35-45 kts of wind at 925 hPa through the day and 35-50
kts of wind at 850 hPa. Should not be very difficult to mix down
most of this wind given the CAA, but at this point blended toward
the NBM90th percentile. Suspect that this is not high enough and
wind speeds/gusts will need to be increased further. Not out of the
question that any Wind Advisory headlines may need to be extended
through Thursday. Will definitely feel much cooler on Thursday as
850 hPa temps decrease to -7 to -10 degrees Celsius. Given this have
gone with highs in the 40s on Thursday.

Stuck with the NBM late Thursday through Friday as the pressure
gradient relaxes with the high building in. May need to lower temps
a bit for Thu night into Fri AM depending on how quickly the
boundary layer decouples. At this point confidence was not high
enough to reduce temps from the NBM.

Saturday and Sunday...

At this point is looking like a repeat of the Wed-Thu system for Sat
into Sun as another trough lifts into and through the region. This
will sweep another cold front through, but given the track it would
be all rain until things are winding down. Given the focus on the
Wed-Thu timeframe did not spend a whole lot of time on this period
and just stuck with the NBM. May need to increase wind speeds/gusts
depending on how things evolve in future updates. NAEFS does show a
roughly 2-2.5 STD above model climo in wind speed for this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update...

Today...High Confidence.

VFR with calm/light winds. Brief marginal MVFR ceilings could
flirt with parts of the very immediate coast for a short time.

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR this evening, but some MVFR ceilings may develop after
midnight. Calm/light SSE Winds.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...High Confidence in trends with
moderate confidence in timing.

MVFR with pockets of IFR conditions overspread most of the
region during the first part of Wednesday. This will be followed
by a period of heavy rain and strong wind gusts later Wednesday
into Wednesday evening with widepread low end MVFR-IFR
conditions. We expect a period of southerly wind gusts of 35-45
knots which will then shift to the W. Strongest of those winds
will be into Wednesday evening, but it will remain windy
overnight. LLWS will also be a concern for a time late Wed into
Wed evening. Dry weather should return by late Wed evening with
rapidly improving conditions to VFR.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA, slight chance
FZRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overall high confidence. Gale Watches issued for late Wednesday
into Thursday evening.

NW winds diminish overnight tonight to below SCA thresholds but
wave heights stay above 5 ft across the southeastern outer
waters through Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in across
the waters, leading to quiet boating weather for Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. Winds increase from the south on Wednesday
reaching 35-40 kt with potential for even higher gusts along
with rough seas. Therefore, Gale Watches have been hoisted for
late Wednesday into Thursday evening for all waters.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
9 ft.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ230>237-251.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BL/Chai
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...BL
AVIATION...Frank/BL
MARINE...BL/Chai

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
537 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-292245-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
537 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A strong cold front will push through southern New England Wednesday
night. This will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and potentially
strong to damaging wind gusts. If confidence increases Wind
Headlines may be needed for Wednesday night through perhaps Thursday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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