Alert archive / Massachusetts / Gale Warnings in 2022

Gale Warning 38, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

November 16, 2022

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this gale warning at Nov 16, 2022, 1:50 AM EST. It took effect at Nov 16, 2022, 4:00 AM EST. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 16, 2022, 1:50 AM EST (06:50 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 16, 2022, 4:00 AM EST
Expired
Nov 16, 2022, 1:00 PM EST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA

The text

As transmitted.

209 
WHUS71 KBOX 160650
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
150 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

ANZ254-162200-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221117T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0038.221116T0900Z-221116T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
150 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to 
  Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-162200-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.221116T0900Z-221117T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0038.221116T0900Z-221116T1800Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
150 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-162200-
/O.EXA.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221117T0000Z/
Boston Harbor-
150 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 1 to 2 feet.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-162200-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0000Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
150 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-162200-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0000Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
150 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-162200-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0000Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
150 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-232-162200-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-
150 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket Sound.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-162200-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221117T0000Z/
Narragansett Bay-
150 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-162200-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.221116T0900Z-221118T0000Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
150 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with occasional Gale Force gusts
  to 35 kts this morning. Gusts generally 25 to 30 kts. Seas 4 to
  6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
2 follow-up statements
261 
WHUS71 KBOX 161457
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
957 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

ANZ250-254-161800-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-221116T1800Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
957 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-170400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0000Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
957 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-170400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0000Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
957 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-170400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0000Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
957 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-232-170400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-
957 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket Sound.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-170000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221117T0000Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
957 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 1 to 2 feet.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-170400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0000Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
957 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with occasional Gale Force gusts 
  to 35 kts this morning. Gusts generally 25 to 30 kts. Seas 4 
  to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
057 
WHUS71 KBOX 161810
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
110 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

ANZ250-254-170715-
/O.EXP.KBOX.GL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-221116T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
110 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 6
  to 10 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-170715-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0600Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
110 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-170715-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T1200Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
110 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters 
  extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and 
  Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from 
  Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of 
  Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-170715-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0600Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
110 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-232-170715-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0600Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-
110 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket Sound.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-170200-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221117T0200Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
110 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 
  2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Boston Harbor. In 
  Rhode Island coastal waters, Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-170715-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-221118T0600Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
110 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 16, 1:20 AM EST, 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 16, 1:20 AM EST, 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
120 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

A coastal storm will bring a wintry mix along with some
accumulating snow for parts of the interior tonight into early
Wednesday. This will bring impacts to the Wednesday AM commute.
A cold rain is expected across the coastal plain. Precipitation
ends Wednesday afternoon from southwest to northeast. Midweek to
early next week features below normal temperatures, and while
we do have to watch a coastal low pressure passing well to our
southeast Sunday night, much of the midweek to early next week
period is dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

1 AM Update...

No major changes in the latest update. Forecast remains on
track.

1020 PM Update...

Have increased precipitation totals along with snowfall amounts
in the latest update. Snowing a bit sooner/heavier in some
spots, so have bumped up totals a bit to account for this.
However, with this said am expecting a transition over to a
wintry mix and eventually all rain from north to south into
Wednesday morning. Still anticipating this to impact the Wed AM
commute, so have not made any changes to the Winter Weather
Advisory at this point. Lowered temps a bit in the latest update
as well as we were a bit too warm compared to observations.
Rest of the forecast is on track.

640 PM Update:

With rather dry air in place (dewpoint depressions being some
10-15 degrees) ahead of leading edge of radar echoes now
evident across the NY/CT/MA border, opted to reduce temperatures
a few degrees to account for evaporative/wet-bulbing effects.
Incorporated the cooler HRRR into the forecast across interior
MA/CT to better reflect this rather temporary effect. Despite
the radar returns the drier air in place should delay precip
onset until about late evening (9-10pm) for western MA and
northern CT, late-evening/midnight for parts of RI, eastern CT
and central MA and with rain not arriving until midnight/early
overnight in eastern MA. This did result in some small
adjustments to forecast snow and ice accumulations across
western MA and northern CT, but these adjustments were not
significant enough to alter the overall message in any
meaningful way. Forecast otherwise appears to be holding up with
initial snow in the interior to transition over to a wintry mix
and then to rain. Given limited accumulation and this type of
p-type transition, it's very possible that any snow which can
accumulate in the higher terrain washes away. However travelers
through the Berkshires, Litchfield Hills into northern portions
of Worcester County overnight to pre-dawn should be aware of the
potential for slippery and deteriorating road conditions with
winter weather advisories in effect.

Previous discussion:

Clouds will continue to thicken and lower as warm advection aloft
kicks in. This, ahead of our first nor'easter of the season which
will bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain to
interior southern New England overnight into Wednesday. At the
synoptic scale we have a 500 mb ridge shifting offshore while a
trough digs into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and eventually New
England. At the surface this trough will generate a wave of low
pressure over OH/TN valley and then a secondary low off the Mid-
Atlantic coast after 00Z. This low then strengthens and passes over
the Cape Cod canal on Wednesday. The inland track, well NW of the
70/40 benchmark, is not favorable for widespread wintry weather as
much of the region will be on the warmer side of the low.

The main concern with the overnight hours is a burst of snow
initially, followed by a transition to sleet and freezing rain as
the mid level warm advection that helped force precipitation
initially will overspread the subfreezing surface air. Guidance has
come into somewhat better agreement on timing of this warm surge,
though the NAM continues to be the quickest. NBM seems to have a
good handle on the transition. This period of wintry mix will be
short lived but could cause slick roads, mainly above 1,000 ft
before things change to rain everywhere by 7-9am. As for snowfall
amounts, anywhere from a trace to an inch is possible in the
Worcester hills with up to 2 inches in the highest elevations of the
Berkshires. Even so, given the transition to rain, it shouldn't
stick around long for most. This is expected to be a very low impact
event given the small, high elevation footprint. By late Wednesday
morning/early afternoon the low will move into the Gulf of Maine
with an end to the rain approaching from SW to NE as a dry slot
moves overhead. This trajectory places southeast MA into the warm
sector with S/SW flow in the afternoon. It keeps temperatures
relatively mild there (in the low to mid 60) while northwest MA sits
in the upper 30s; we'll see quite the temperature gradient tomorrow.
It also introduces a chance for some thunder embedded in the showers
over southeast MA as CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg will be briefly
overhead. The main threat from any thunderstorm would be potential
that it mixes down some strong winds from the 30-40 kt 925 mb jet
overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

Overnight will be dry and much quieter as the low lifts into Nova
Scotia. Dry westerly surface flow will keep skies clear much of the
night with breezy winds as high as 10 to 15 mph, gustier along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Highlights:

* Below normal temperatures with periods of blustery conditions.
  Highs in the 30s away from the coasts by Monday!

* Have to watch a passing system well offshore late Sunday, but
  generally dry weather prevails.

Details:

Negative-EPO teleconnection pattern at 500 mb prevails through much
of the long-term forecast period, associated with an amplified
longwave trough across the northern and central Plains, OH Valley
and the Northeast. Colder air to progressively spill eastward, with
925 mb temps starting around -1 to -3C on Thurs, then trending to -3
to -6C by Fri/Sat/Sun. 925 mb thermal trough and coldest air
develops on Mon with 925 mb temps -6 to -9C!

So the main story is the stretch of below normal temperatures, with
temperatures trending colder each day. A couple of days of blustery
conditions given the anomalously cold air mass seem possible as well
which will add to chilly conditions; while Thurs and Fri should both
feature rather blustery conditions, combo of stronger NW gusts and
coldest temperatures appears around Mon in the wake of a
departing/distant coastal low. High temperatures begin in the low
40s to near 50 on Thurs and Fri, mid 30s to mid 40s for the weekend
and then low 30s to low 40s on Mon. These are about 5-10 degrees
below mid-November climatology.

Mainly dry weather prevails in this period, though we could see
passing flurries in the Berkshires due to the moisture fetch from
Lake Erie. Around Sunday into early Monday, there are some
indications for a distant coastal low passing well to our southeast
from the Carolinas that could brush southeast New England with
precip but trends are further to the SE and thus capped PoP at no
better than slight chance. Remains time to sort through the details
regarding this but at the moment offering largely dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...High confidence.

MVFR to LIFR conditions expected. Will see any wintry mix/snow
transitioning to all rain from north to south across the
interior. The only exception will be across the Eastern Slopes
of the Berkshires where the mix continues into Wed AM. NE to N
winds at 10-20 kts. Could have some 15-30 kt gusts across the
higher terrain and coastal plain. Lastly, will have LLWS
concerns across RI/SE MA as a 30-45+ kt SE low level jet lifts
through.

Today...High confidence in trends, moderate in exact timing.

MVFR to LIFR conditions to start with gradual improvement to VFR
during the afternoon. Could see some isolated thunderstorms
across SE MA from mid morning into the early afternoon. Think
shot is greatest for the Cape/Islands, but was not confident
enough to include in the latest TAF. Winds starting out of the
NE at 10-20 kts, but shift to the NW/WNW by the afternoon. Gusts
of 15-35 kts with the highest gusts over the Cape.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR with W winds at 5-10 kts and gusts of 15-20 kts across the
higher terrain and coastal plain.

Thursday...High confidence.

VFR with W winds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 15-25 kts with the
highest speeds across the higher terrain and coastal plain.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Wednesday night...

Rain spreads in tonight into early Wednesday. Potential for
some thunderstorms across the waters Wednesday morning. Rain
tapers off during the afternoon. Winds out of the E/NE tonight
increasing to 15-25 kts late. Winds shift to the SW by late
Wednesday AM and W/WNW by late afternoon as a coastal low slides
through. Wind gusts of 20-30 kts, with a brief period of Gale
Force Gusts to 35 kts Wednesday AM. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect from tonight into Wednesday night. Winds Wednesday
night will out of the west, 15-20 kt, gusting to 25 kt. Seas
building to 4-6 ft for the southern waters late tonight, 4-8 ft
across all waters on Wednesday, decreasing a bit overnight.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 20 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance
of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     CTZ002.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ231-232-
     235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ233-
     234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BL/Loconto/BW
NEAR TERM...BL/Loconto/BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Belk/BL
MARINE...Loconto/BW
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 15, 4:08 PM EST, 9 hours 42 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
408 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2022

CTZ002-MAZ002>004-008-009-026-162115-
Hartford CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-
408 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts and western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ003-004-MAZ005>007-010>017-RIZ001>003-008-162115-
Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-
Eastern Essex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Block Island RI-
408 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, northern Rhode
Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-162115-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
408 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ018>024-RIZ004>007-162115-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
408 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts,
northern Rhode Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 15, 10:11 PM EST, 3 hours 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1011 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     SNOW             3 WNW FARMINGTON        41.73N 72.90W
11/15/2022  M1.0 INCH        HARTFORD           CT   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY MEDIA.

0933 PM     SNOW             1 WSW LEICESTER         42.25N 71.91W
11/15/2022  M1.0 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

0936 PM     SNOW             2 N SOUTHWICK           42.07N 72.77W
11/15/2022  M1.0 INCH        HAMPDEN            MA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.

0955 PM     SNOW             HOLDEN                  42.35N 71.86W
11/15/2022  M1.0 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

1003 PM     SNOW             2 NE WESTBOROUGH        42.28N 71.60W
11/15/2022  M1.0 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   NWS EMPLOYEE

1000 PM     SNOW             AUBURN                  42.20N 71.84W
11/15/2022  M1.1 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0950 PM     SNOW             STAFFORDVILLE           42.00N 72.26W
11/15/2022  M1.2 INCH        TOLLAND            CT   CO-OP OBSERVER

0950 PM     SNOW             BURLINGTON              41.77N 72.96W
11/15/2022  M1.2 INCH        HARTFORD           CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 PM     SNOW             2 NW HAMPDEN            42.08N 72.45W
11/15/2022  M1.2 INCH        HAMPDEN            MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1006 PM     SNOW             2 NNW AGAWAM            42.09N 72.63W
11/15/2022  M1.2 INCH        HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0944 PM     SNOW             3 N CANTON              41.86N 72.89W
11/15/2022  M1.4 INCH        HARTFORD           CT   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&
Local storm report, Nov 15, 10:30 PM EST, 3 hours 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1030 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     SNOW             3 WNW FARMINGTON        41.73N 72.90W
11/15/2022  M1.0 INCH        HARTFORD           CT   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY MEDIA.

0933 PM     SNOW             1 WSW LEICESTER         42.25N 71.91W
11/15/2022  M1.0 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

0936 PM     SNOW             2 N SOUTHWICK           42.07N 72.77W
11/15/2022  M1.0 INCH        HAMPDEN            MA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO.

0944 PM     SNOW             3 N CANTON              41.86N 72.89W
11/15/2022  M1.4 INCH        HARTFORD           CT   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

0950 PM     SNOW             STAFFORDVILLE           42.00N 72.26W
11/15/2022  M1.2 INCH        TOLLAND            CT   CO-OP OBSERVER

0950 PM     SNOW             BURLINGTON              41.77N 72.96W
11/15/2022  M1.2 INCH        HARTFORD           CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

0955 PM     SNOW             HOLDEN                  42.35N 71.86W
11/15/2022  M1.0 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

1000 PM     SNOW             1 WSW LEICESTER         42.25N 71.91W
11/15/2022  M1.4 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

1000 PM     SNOW             AUBURN                  42.20N 71.84W
11/15/2022  M1.1 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 PM     SNOW             2 NW HAMPDEN            42.08N 72.45W
11/15/2022  M1.2 INCH        HAMPDEN            MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1003 PM     SNOW             2 NE WESTBOROUGH        42.28N 71.60W
11/15/2022  M1.0 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   NWS EMPLOYEE

1005 PM     SNOW             1 NW STURBRIDGE         42.11N 72.08W
11/15/2022  M1.7 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1006 PM     SNOW             1 S SPENCER             42.23N 71.99W
11/15/2022  M1.5 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1006 PM     SNOW             2 NNW AGAWAM            42.09N 72.63W
11/15/2022  M1.2 INCH        HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

1010 PM     SNOW             GRANBY                  41.95N 72.79W
11/15/2022  M1.2 INCH        HARTFORD           CT   PUBLIC

1013 PM     SNOW             1 SSW STURBRIDGE        42.09N 72.07W
11/15/2022  M1.7 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1015 PM     SNOW             MIDDLEFIELD             42.35N 73.02W
11/15/2022  M1.0 INCH        HAMPSHIRE          MA   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

1025 PM     SNOW             SOUTHWICK               42.05N 72.77W
11/15/2022  M1.5 INCH        HAMPDEN            MA   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&
Local storm report, Nov 16, 1:12 AM EST, 38 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
112 AM EST WED NOV 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     SNOW             WORCESTER AP            42.27N 71.88W
11/16/2022  M2.0 INCH        WORCESTER          MA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Massachusetts, 2022Every gale warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.