Gale Warning 31, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

495 
WHUS71 KBOX 170621
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
221 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

ANZ254-255-171930-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-220817T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0032.220817T1000Z-220817T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
221 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  7 to 12 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to 
  Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 25 
  nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-232-250-171930-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.W.0031.220817T1000Z-220817T2100Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
221 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  7 to 12 feet expected.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay, Nantucket Sound and Coastal waters east 
  of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine 
  Sanctuary.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-233>237-251-256-171930-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T1200Z/
Boston Harbor-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
221 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Massachusetts coastal waters and Rhode 
  Island coastal waters. 

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

052 
WHUS71 KBOX 171343
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

ANZ231-180245-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-220817T2100Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T1200Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-180245-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-220817T2100Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T1200Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas 
  Vineyard and Nantucket.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232-180245-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-220817T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T0600Z/
Nantucket Sound-
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ237-171445-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T1200Z/
Block Island Sound-
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

ANZ250-172100-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-220817T2100Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254-172100-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-220817T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to 
  Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233>235-180000-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T0000Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 
  2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Vineyard Sound and 
  Buzzards Bay. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Rhode Island 
  Sound.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ256-180245-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T0300Z/
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard 
  extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-180245-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T0300Z/
Boston Harbor-
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas around 2 feet.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-172100-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220817T2100Z/
Narragansett Bay-
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 
  around 2 feet.

* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-180245-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T1200Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

442 
WHUS71 KBOX 171926
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
326 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

ANZ250-180830-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-220817T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T1800Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
326 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254-180830-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-220817T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
326 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to 
  Nantucket MA out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-172030-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220817T2100Z/
Narragansett Bay-
326 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

ANZ231-251-180800-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T0800Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
326 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay and Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-180830-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T1800Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
326 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas 
  Vineyard and Nantucket.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232-180300-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T0300Z/
Nantucket Sound-
326 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233>235-180000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T0000Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
326 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 
  around 3 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Vineyard Sound and 
  Buzzards Bay. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Rhode Island 
  Sound.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ256-180300-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T0300Z/
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
326 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard 
  extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-180300-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-220818T0300Z/
Boston Harbor-
326 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas around 2 feet.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
331 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An anomalous low tracks east of Nantucket and Cape Cod tonight and
Wednesday, resulting in a wind drive rain for Cape Cod and the
Islands. Some uncertainty how far west the rain shield tracks, with
highest probability of beneficial rains occurring across eastern
Massachusetts, and possibly into Rhode Island, eastern CT and the
Worcester Hills. A drying trend then develops Thursday as the low
lifts north into Maine. Very warm weather with above normal temps
returns Friday and Saturday, followed by increasing humidity early
next week. Dry weather is expected Friday and Saturday, but the
threat for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will arrive
early next week with the best chances sometime Monday and/or
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

950 AM Update:

Previous forecast is on track. Plenty of sunshine this morning
will give way to a bit more clouds as the day wears along
particularly towards the coast. Did make a slight change to the
sky grids as clouds across western zones have been slow to
filter in. This in association with a developing low pressure
system south of the Benchmark. The increasing pressure gradient
will allow for a bit of a northeast breeze along the coast later
this morning and afternoon.

Previous discussion follows below.

===============================================================

A closed 500mb cuts off in the mid level trough axis above
southern New England today resulting in cold pool cumulus
development as daytime heating begins across our western zones.
In addition to cold pool cumulus, a significant increase in
moisture at the mid levels, thanks to onshore flow, across
eastern MA, will generate mid level cloudiness, especially
across Cape Cod and the Islands. ENE flow that brings the
aforementioned mid level moisture to the eastern half of our
region will also bring much cooler temperatures as the cooler
maritime air is advected over the region. A combination of
cloudiness and onshore flow will create another significant
temperature gradient across the CWA, with portions of the
eastern MA coast and Cape struggling to make it into the low
70s, while parts of the Connecticut River Valley, where more
sunshine will be present, reach into the low- mid 80s. With
925mb temps in the low 20s across our western zones, there is
the potential for temperatures to overachieve and reach well
into the 80s should we mix to 825mb as indicated by model
soundings. Temperatures on Tuesday will be wildly dependent on
cloud cover, but the overall gist is that clearer skies will
yield warmer temperatures.

Guidance is split on shower development across the Cape and Eastern
MA coast today as a the parade of weak low pressure systems
continues to move just offshore of our area. Should the column
saturate by early afternoon, there is a low chance for some pop up
showers across the aforementioned areas. Shower chances will
increase should low pressure track slightly closer to our
coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

The more interesting half of the near-short term forecast will be
late Tuesday into Wednesday. The strongest low pressure of the bunch
will track off the coast of Cape Hatteras to the benchmark by
late Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. If this were a
winter storm, we would likely be talking about an expansive
precipitation shield, but given the late-summer lack of
baroclinicity, the exact track of the low will be extremely
important in determining who will see precipitation and how much
rain will fall.

While the previous AFD mentioned that convective feedback may
be driving the wetter solution of the ECMWF, OOZ guidance has
shifted westward, and wetter across the board, with the ECMWF
actually coming in as some of the drier guidance at this hour.
The driving factor in the increase in precipitation with the 00Z
runs stems from the position of the low in these deterministic
runs. The WRF-ARW actually has the low pressure nestling into
the MA/NH coastline by Wednesday, which would be an optimal
solution for those cheering for rain. While we must take every
piece of deterministic guidance with a grain of salt, the
ensembles are starting to settle on similar solutions; both the
GEFS and EPS indicating upwards of 0.5" of QPF east of the
I-495/I-95 corridor in eastern MA and Rhode Island. This is a
significant change from even the previous 24 hours, when most
guidance was coming in very dry. When diving deeper into things,
this change in guidance is consistent with the position of the
closed low over southern New England, which has the potential to
pull the rain shield in closer to the coast, expanding the
westward extent that beneficial precipitation. Model guidance
over the next 12-24 hours will be crucial in determining the
total precipitation potential from this event. At this junction,
confidence is growing that eastern MA and RI will see modest
QPF from this system. Unfortunately for western MA and CT,
current guidance keeps these areas mostly dry.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be dependent on the track of the low.
Should the low track further west, bringing much needed precip
to our drought stricken eastern zones, temperatures will be
tamped down into the low 70s; except across the CT River Valley
where breaks in the clouds will allow for warming into the upper
70s.

By late Wednesday, low pressure begins to track into Maine, but
showers will linger into the early evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

330 PM update...

Highlights...

* Mainly Dry & Seasonably warm Thursday

* Dry with Summer-like Warmth/Above normal temps Fri & Sat, but
  humidity will remain comfortable by August standards

* Increasing humidity with some showers/t-storms possible early next
  week with the main chances looking to be sometime Mon and/or Tue

Thursday...

Vertically stacked low lifts north thru Maine, yielding rising
heights across SNE, promoting a drying trend and seasonably warm
temps (upper 70s & lower 80s). There may be lots clouds, but dry
weather should prevail. The only wrinkle, could be lingering showers
over northern MA during the morning.

Friday/Saturday/Sunday...

Subtropical ridge begins to build northward across the western
Atlantic and eastern seaboard, resulting in warmer/above normal
temps this period. Both GFS & Euro ensembles agree on above normal
850 mb temps this period, and combined with WNW flow at 850
(downsloping winds, especially Fri & possibly Sat), highs of 85-90
seem plausible. Although, humidity will be tolerable with dew pts in
the 50s, especially away from the coast. By Sunday it will feel more
humid, with dew pts in the low to mid 60s. Definitely a summer feel.
Rising heights will provide dry weather this period. Ensembles have
been slower with approaching Great Lakes trough, so dry weather may
linger thru much if not all of Sunday.

Early Next Week...

Northern stream trough moves across the Great Lakes and approaches
SNE, with height falls and increasing PWATs and instability. Both
GFS and Euro ensembles have PWATs climbing above normal Mon and Tue
along with low probs of 1000 j/kg. Thus, the combination of synoptic
forcing, ample deep layer moisture and increasing instability,
scattered convection seems reasonable. Ensembles suggest modest
winds aloft, possible sufficient for organized convection. Although,
still 6-7 days out, so by no means etched in stone. Definitely a
summer feel to the airmass, with highs in the 80s and dew pts in the
60s Mon and possibly near 70 Tue!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

14z TAF Update...

Today...High confidence.

Mainly VFR despite increasing mid level cloudiness. However,
some marginal MVFR ceilings may develop across the Cape and
Islands toward evening. North wind becomes northeast 10 to 15
knots, gust 20 to 25 knots for terminals on the Cape and
Islands. Perhaps even a few gusts around 30 knots developing across
Nantucket.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

VFR for western terminals. MVFR/IFR conditions with VCSH/-RA
possible for eastern MA terminals, including the Cape and
Islands. Northeast wind 10 to 15 knot with gust 20 to 25 knots
and up to 30 knots across Nantucket. Terminals away from the
coast have northeast wind 5 to 10 knot.

Wednesday... Moderate Confidence.

Increasing chances for -RA across eastern terminals. VFR for
western terminals but MVFR and IFR conditions possible as low
ceilings develop across eastern zones. Northerly winds will be
gusty; up to 25 kt along the eastern MA Coast, including the
terminals of BOS and ACK.

KBOS...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday through Saturday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tuesday...High confidence.

As low pressure begins to track towards our waters from Cape
Hatteras, winds and waves will build into small craft
territory. Small craft conditions will gradually spread east and
then north by Tuesday evening. Winds will gust to between 25
and 30 kt as seas build to 5+ feet.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night... Moderate Confidence

The low will track into the gulf of Maine overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday, which will really kick up the seas; with waves
up to 10 feet possible. Given these conditions, a high surf
advisory has been put in place for our eastern facing coastlines
for Wednesday.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Thursday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Surf Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM EDT Wednesday for
     MAZ022-024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ230-236-251.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ231.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ232.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ233>235-
     237-256.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Gaucher
NEAR TERM...Gaucher
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/KS
MARINE...Nocera/KS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
408 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>014-017-018-020-021-023-026-RIZ001>008-
170815-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Dukes MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
408 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024-170815-
Eastern Essex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Nantucket MA-
408 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts,
northeastern Massachusetts and southeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-170815-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
408 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.boston.gov

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston