Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

073 
WWUS55 KBOU 020142
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
742 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022

COC001-005-039-073-121-020200-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-220502T0200Z/
Elbert CO-Arapahoe CO-Washington CO-Adams CO-Lincoln CO-
742 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ELBERT...EASTERN ARAPAHOE...SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTIES...

At 742 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Woodrow to 5 miles south of Cottonwood Valley, or
along a line extending from 22 miles southeast of Fort Morgan to 21
miles north of Limon, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Agate, Woodlin School, Cottonwood Valley, Shamrock and Last Chance. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3988 10348 3940 10352 3941 10396 3989 10383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 230DEG 29KT 3997 10360 3956 10381 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

RPK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
530 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022

There is a batch of weak convection going over the mountains at
this time. I haven't seen any lightning yet, but there was some
over southwestern Wyoming recently. At the surface, southeasterly
winds are covering most of the plains and there is a Denver
Cyclone in place.

Models are still showing the upper closed low to move right
across the CWA late tonight through Monday noon time. The QG Omega
fields show substantial upward vertical velocity for the CWA
tonight and Monday morning. Strong downward motion is in place
Monday afternoon. Models keep decent low level upslope flow going
over the plains and foothills tonight and Monday. The QPF fields
show measurable precipitation across all of the CWA tonight and
Monday morning. The snow level in the mountains/foothills will be
around 7,600-8,000 Feet MSL.

Will go with 70-90% pops for most of the CWA tonight into Monday.
The precip is much needed.  For temperatures, Monday highs will be
below seasonal normals a good amount.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022

The storm system exits stage right into Nebraska by Monday
evening leaving Colorado under ridging high pressure with a drying
and subsident airmass during the night. There will still be low
level moisture over the plains Monday night with the possibility
of areas of fog developing.

The ridge of high pressure will shift east of Colorado by Tuesday
afternoon in advance of next storm system gathering across southwest
Wyoming late in the day. This system will bring another round of
showers into the Northern mountains Tuesday afternoon. Confidence in
how this next system plays out is low as models not a lot of agreement
on storm track. The GFS continues to be the farthest north track
across central Wyoming while the Canadian/Europe models track the
storm further south across Colorado. If the southern track verifies
than there will be greater chances of significant precipitation.
At the least, will get a strong accompanied cold front which will
bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially
across northern sections.

Improving conditions in the Thursday and Friday time frame with
mainly dry conditions and warming temperatures. Warmest day looks to
be Saturday under increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of next
Pacific system. Temperatures will be above seasonal normals for both
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 527 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022

MVFR and ILS conditions are possible at all terminals this evening
with widespread precipitation. Ceilings will continue to fall and
IFR to LIFR conditions are probable tonight with ceilings below
500 ft and visibility down to around 3 SM. This evening, expect
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms bringing light
rain, lightning, small hail and gusty, erratic winds, as well as
broken to overcast ceilings down to around 2000 ft. There is a
DCVZ right over the airports now. Winds are northwesterly on the
west side and reinforced by outflow from early afternoon
convection in the high country, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots.
Winds are southeasterly on the east side and a bit lighter. As
storms move off the terrain and east to the plains this evening
their outflow might help break up the boundary a bit, it's
difficult to say, but it should move east through the evening
regardless and winds will turn more northerly to northeasterly at
the terminals as it does. Storms tend to surge a bit as they go
over the boundary, which looks like it will be east of our
terminals before the storms move over anyway. Precipitation will
be persistent overnight and ceilings will continue to fall. Conditions
should begin to improve Monday morning and significantly through
the afternoon. There may be light showers in the vicinity through
tomorrow evening, but clearing should continue overnight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....Entrekin
AVIATION...EJD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1054 AM MDT Sun May 1 2022

COZ030>051-021700-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1054 AM MDT Sun May 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered rain and snow showers will develop in the mountains
this afternoon and then increase tonight. The snow level will
lower to around 7000 feet on Monday morning. Rain showers will
develop and spread across the northeast plains this evening and
overnight with isolated embedded thunderstorms. Expect brief
heavy rain and hail with the thunderstorms this evening across the
plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Showers will decrease from west to east during the day on Monday
with possible travel impacts in the high country with accumulating
snow, especially for areas north of I-70. Snow accumulations will
be 3 to 8 inches, highest amounts over the higher northern
mountains.

Another round of precipitation with a mix of snow and rain will be
possible Wednesday into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to send reports of wind or hail.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
631 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022

COZ046-020100-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County CO-
631 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Elbert
and northeastern Lincoln Counties through 700 PM MDT...

At 631 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles northwest of Limon to 4 miles north of
Arriba, or along a line extending from 63 miles northeast of Colorado
Springs to 10 miles west of Flagler. Movement was northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Limon, Arriba and Genoa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 10379 3956 10374 3957 10332 3956 10322
      3957 10322 3957 10316 3935 10315 3921 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 213DEG 32KT 3932 10373 3934 10324

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RPK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
635 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022

COZ045-046-020100-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County CO-Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties CO-
635 PM MDT Sun May 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Elbert
and central Arapahoe Counties through 700 PM MDT...

At 635 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Byers, or 37 miles northwest of Limon, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Deer Trail, Byers and Strasburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3949 10420 3949 10436 3950 10437 3950 10441
      3976 10432 3975 10400 3948 10401 3948 10420
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 211DEG 23KT 3957 10427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RPK