Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
237 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Storms will continue to progress northeast across Colorado
through early evening. Strong outflow winds will be the main
threat for most areas with gusts to 60 mph. Over far northeast
Colorado where ML CAPE will be 1000-2000 J/kg, golf ball size hail
and wind gusts to 70 mph will be possible. Convection is expected
to be east of the state by 9pm, after this quiet weather is
expected for the rest of the night.

Southwest flow increases Monday as an upper level trough moves
over the Northern Rockies. A surface low deepening over Wyoming
and deep mixing will result in gusty southwest winds for Monday.
Over the plains, gusts to 35 mph are expected with up to 50 mph
possible over the higher terrain. The airmass remains hot. Mostly
sunny skies and downslope southwest wind should push temperatures
well into the 90s, with some 100-105 readings possible. The record
high for DEN is 99 degrees and there is a decent chance that it
is tied or broken.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Monday night begins with a cold front that will provide welcome
relief from Monday's heat. High temperatures Tuesday will be
nearly 20 degrees cooler than Mondays, with near normal highs on
the plains and near to below normal in the mountains. An upper
level low pressure area will move slowly along the Montana/Canada
border through mid week. With low heights across the area
temperatures remain near seasonal through mid week, then the low
slowly moves east with ridging building across the forecast area
on Thursday. The ridge starts out centered over Colorado on
Thursday, then shifts east to Kansas Friday into the weekend. 700
mb temperatures get down to near 10-12C Tuesday and Wednesday,
then increase to 15-17C later in the week. Daytime high surface
temperatures rebound and become hot again late in the week, with
upper 90s on the plains Friday and around 100 on the eastern
plains for Saturday. In the mountains 70s to near 80 will continue
snowmelt and keep river flows elevated.

With the eastward shift of the ridge later this week and an
approaching upper low into the Pacific coast, south-southwesterly
monsoonal flow will develop across the west. Moisture increases
over western Colorado late Friday, deepening and shifting east to
cover central and eastern Colorado Saturday and Sunday. Still a
way out there, but there is model agreement of 700-500 mb specific
humidity above 5 g/kg on those days. Although temperatures remain
hot, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase heading into
the weekend. Best chances in the mountains next Saturday, then
spread east onto the central plains for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM MDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Scattered thunderstorms still on track for the Denver area, 19-23Z.
Very good chance the airports see a wind shift or two due to
outflows from convection. Wind gusts to 45 knots will be possible
with the strongest convection. Once the showers and storms move east
of the area, southeasterly winds are expected to prevail. Quiet
weather is expected for tonight and Monday. Southwest winds increase
Monday, with afternoon gusts up to 30 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Hot and dry conditions will once again prevail Monday. Relative
humidities are expected to fall into the 5 to 10 percent range
Monday afternoon. Southwest winds will increase during the morning
with gusts to 35 mph across the plains and up to 50 mph in the
foothills and mountains. If there weren't green fuels, Monday
would be one of the worst fire weather days of the year as we will
maximize the hot, dry, and windy components. However, there has
been enough green up due to the recent moisture that rapid fire
growth is not be a huge concern despite the weather conditions.
Therefore, no highlights were issued but we will continue to
monitor the fuels.

A cold front Monday night will reduce temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday by nearly 20 degrees cooler than over the weekend and
Monday. However drier air and warm temperatures will continue to
elevate fire weather conditions. Building high pressure will
return hot temperatures to the region Thursday and Friday, rising
to the upper 90s. The hot temperatures, RH in the mid teens, and
increasing south winds Friday will bring fire weather concerns to
criticial levels later in the week.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...Meier
FIRE WEATHER...Meier/Hanson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1101 AM MDT Sun Jun 12 2022

COZ030>051-131715-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1101 AM MDT Sun Jun 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop early this
afternoon along the Front Range. Brief moderate to heavy rain and
wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible. As these storms progress
northeastward through the afternoon and earlier evening, they are
expected to increase in coverage and intensity. A few severe
thunderstorms will be possible with hail up to golf ball size
along with wind gusts to 60 mph, mainly northeast of a line from
Limon to Cheyenne.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

It will be very hot through much of the period with the exception
of Tuesday and Wednesday. The hottest day will be Monday as
plenty of locations across the plains will reach 100 degrees.
There will be critical fire weather conditions on Monday due to
very hot, dry, and windy weather. Elevated to critical fire
weather conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as well.
Monsoonal moisture will arrive on Friday and into next weekend.
This will bring a chance for storms mainly across the higher
terrain with the potential for burn area flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
344 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2022

COZ041-122230-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet CO-
344 PM MDT Sun Jun 12 2022

...Thunderstorms and possible landspouts will impact portions of
eastern Douglas and west central Elbert Counties through 430 PM
MDT...

At 342 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking developing thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout tornado along a line extending from
near The Pinery to 6 miles west of Elbert, or along a line extending
from 20 miles southeast of Denver to 24 miles north of Colorado
Springs. Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts possible.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Landspout tornadoes can damage mobile homes, roofs,
         vehicles, and trees. Outdoor objects may be tossed about.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Parker, Elbert, Elizabeth, Ponderosa Park, The Pinery and
Franktown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If a tornado is spotted seek shelter inside a sturdy building.

&&

LAT...LON 3916 10483 3935 10479 3949 10480 3949 10476
      3950 10470 3915 10443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 249DEG 7KT 3946 10478 3921 10465

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
410 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     HAIL             8 NW BURDETT            40.44N 103.09W
06/12/2022  M1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         CO   PUBLIC

&&

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