Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

168 
WWUS85 KBOU 091044
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
444 AM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...Locally critical fire weather conditions Saturday and Sunday afternoon...

Very dry conditions combined with breezy winds are expected to
lead to critical fire weather conditions across much of the urban
corridor, Palmer Divide, Cheyenne Ridge and southern plains
Saturday afternoon. Pockets of critical conditions may also occur
into the eastern plains.

Wind gusts will be stronger on Sunday as the dry conditions
continue. This may create to critical fire weather conditions 
across portions of the plains. 

COZ244-245-248-249-091845-
/O.CAN.KBOU.FW.A.0005.220409T1700Z-220410T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.A.0006.220410T1700Z-220411T0100Z/
Morgan County-Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
Logan County-Washington County-
444 AM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY FOR LOGAN, MORGAN, WASHINGTON, AND EASTERN ADAMS AND 
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect from
Sunday morning through Sunday evening. The Fire Weather Watch has
been cancelled.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 244, 245, 248 and 249.

* Timing...11 AM MDT Saturday until 7 PM MDT Sunday.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as 
  any activity that may produce a spark and start a fast moving 
  wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ238>243-091845-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.A.0006.220410T1700Z-220411T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0007.220409T1700Z-220410T0100Z/
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-
444 AM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect from
Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 238, 239, 240, 241, 242 and 
  243.

* Timing...11 AM MDT until 7 PM MDT today and Sunday.

* Winds...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph today. Northwest
  20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph on Sunday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as any activity 
  that may produce a spark and start a fast moving wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ246-247-091845-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0007.220409T1700Z-220410T0100Z/
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
444 AM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 246 and 247.

* Timing...11 AM MDT Saturday until 7 PM MDT today.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as any activity 
  that may produce a spark and start a fast moving wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ250-251-091845-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.A.0006.220410T1700Z-220411T0100Z/
Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
444 AM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect from
Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 250 and 251.

* Timing...11 AM MDT Saturday until 7 PM MDT Sunday.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as any activity 
  that may produce a spark and start a fast moving wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

779 
WWUS85 KBOU 091728
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1128 AM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

Very dry conditions combined with breezy winds are expected to 
lead to critical fire weather conditions across much of the urban 
corridor, Palmer Divide, Cheyenne Ridge and southern plains 
this afternoon. Pockets of critical conditions may also occur 
into the eastern plains.

Wind gusts will be stronger on Sunday as the dry conditions
continue. This may create to critical fire weather conditions
across portions of the plains.

COZ238>243-100200-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220410T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.A.0006.220410T1700Z-220411T0100Z/
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-
1128 AM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND 
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING 
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 238, 239, 240, 241, 242 and 
  243.

* Timing...11 AM MDT until 7 PM MDT today and Sunday.

* Winds...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph today. Northwest
  20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph on Sunday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as any activity 
  that may produce a spark and start a fast moving wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ246-247-100100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220410T0100Z/
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
1128 AM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EASTERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN
COUNTY...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 246 and 247.

* Timing...11 AM MDT until 7 PM MDT today.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as any activity 
  that may produce a spark and start a fast moving wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ244-245-248>251-100200-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.A.0006.220410T1700Z-220411T0100Z/
Morgan County-Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1128 AM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 244, 245, 248, 249, 250 and 
  251.

* Timing...11 AM MDT Saturday until 7 PM MDT Sunday.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as 
  any activity that may produce a spark and start a fast moving 
  wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

155 
WWUS85 KBOU 092001
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
201 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

Very dry conditions combined with breezy winds will continue to
produce critical fire weather conditions across much of the urban
corridor, Palmer Divide, Cheyenne Ridge and southern plains this 
afternoon. Conditions will improve this evening as the winds die
down and a cold front pushes through the region.

Wind gusts will be stronger on Sunday. Temperatures will be 
cooler but it will remain very dry. This is expected create 
another period of critical fire weather conditions across the I-25
corridor and northeast plains.

COZ238>243-100415-
/O.UPG.KBOU.FW.A.0006.220410T1700Z-220411T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.W.0008.220410T1700Z-220411T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220410T0100Z/
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-
201 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND 
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR 
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND 
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Sunday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 238, 239, 240, 241, 242 and 
  243.

* Timing...11 AM MDT until 7 PM MDT today and again on Sunday.

* Winds...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph today. Northwest
  20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph on Sunday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as any activity 
  that may produce a spark and start a fast moving wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ246-247-100415-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.W.0008.220410T1700Z-220411T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220410T0100Z/
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
201 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EASTERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN
COUNTY... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR 
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EASTERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Sunday.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 246 and 247.

* Timing...11 AM MDT until 7 PM MDT today.

* Winds...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph today. Northwest
  15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph on Sunday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as any activity 
  that may produce a spark and start a fast moving wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ244-245-248>251-100415-
/O.UPG.KBOU.FW.A.0006.220410T1700Z-220411T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.W.0008.220410T1700Z-220411T0100Z/
Morgan County-Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
201 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Sunday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 244, 245, 248, 249, 250 and 
  251.

* Timing...11 AM MDT until 7 PM MDT Sunday.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as 
  any activity that may produce a spark and start a fast moving 
  wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

528 
WWUS85 KBOU 100104
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
704 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

Critical fire weather conditions have subsided early this evening
so the Red Flag Warning has expired for today.

Wind gusts will be stronger on Sunday. Temperatures will be
cooler but it will remain very dry. This is expected create
another period of critical fire weather conditions across the I-
25 corridor and northeast plains.

COZ238>243-246-247-101315-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220410T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0008.220410T1700Z-220411T0100Z/
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
704 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 238, 239, 240, 241, 242, 
  243, 246 and 247.

* Timing...11 AM MDT until 7 PM MDT today and again on Sunday.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as any activity 
  that may produce a spark and start a fast moving wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ244-245-248>251-101315-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0008.220410T1700Z-220411T0100Z/
Morgan County-Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
704 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 244, 245, 248, 249, 250 and 
  251.

* Timing...11 AM MDT until 7 PM MDT Sunday.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 16 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as 
  any activity that may produce a spark and start a fast moving 
  wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1053 AM MDT Fri Apr 8 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Fri Apr 8 2022

Forecast is on track this morning with milder and dry conditions
setting in under clear skies. Much lighter winds across the
forecast area today, which is certainly a welcome change. The only
update so far this morning was to remove South Park and the
southern foothills from tomorrow's Fire Weather Watch, as fuel
conditions are not in a critical status.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Fri Apr 8 2022

Expect mostly clear, warm and dry weather today as the ridge
moves overhead. The flow aloft will be turning northwesterly and
decreasing. There will also be decreasing synoptic subsidence as
the system our over the Great Lakes advances east. The warming
trend will continue with temperatures up 5 to 10 F across the
area, to a few degrees warmer than normal. Highs will be in the
60s across the plains, 40s and 50s in the foothills and mountain
valleys, and 30s and 40s in the mountains.

It will be quite dry again with afternoon minimum humidity near
or just below 15 percent across the plains. Fortunately, there
will be less wind, though it will still get a little breezy due to
northerly jet winds nearby and decent mixing. There will be
elevated fire weather conditions across much of the plains this
afternoon, and near-critical conditions on the eastern plains and
around the Cheyenne Ridge where winds will be strongest. Peak
afternoon gusts will probably be 30 to 35 mph in these areas. We
didn't issue any fire weather highlights for today as we expect
any critical conditions to be marginal for wind and humidity
thresholds, local in coverage, and limited in time.

The flow aloft will turn westerly tonight as the ridge axis moves
overhead. It will be mostly clear but overnight low temperatures
should still be slightly warm in most areas, in the 30s and 40s on
the plains and teens and 20s in the high country. Mostly clear
skies should allow for good radiational cooling of the mountain
valleys. A shortwave will be approaching from the Pacific
Northwest and there will be increasing moisture, ascent and flow
ahead of it.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Fri Apr 8 2022

On Saturday, a ridge aloft over our CWA will quickly depart in the
morning hours with zonal flow developing ahead of a shortwave trough
that moves across our area Saturday night. There will be warm air
advection in the low to mid levels which will combine with downslope
flow across the plains to increase high temperatures to the mid to
upper 70s. Denver will actually be within a few degrees of the
record daily high temperature of 81 set in 1977. Lee cyclogenesis
will develop over northeastern Colorado which will create gusty
winds in the afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph across the plains and
up to 40 mph in the mountains. The dry and windy conditions will
lead to areas of critical fire weather conditions which is discussed
in the fire weather section below.

A cold front associated with the trough will move across our area
Saturday night. The strong frontogenesis along with QG ascent will
create showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms due to weak
instability over the northern mountains and far northern plains.
Since this trough doesn't "dig" very far south across our CWA, the
best forcing and moisture will stay across the northern tier of
counties while the southern tier of counties will stay mainly dry.
The mountain ridges especially in and near Rocky Mountain National
Park will pick up a quick couple inches of snow in the stronger
showers. Precipitation will be mostly rain below 7,000 feet and no
snow accumulation is expected across the plains.

The cold front will bring in a cooler airmass during the day on
Sunday with highs 10 to 20 degrees below Saturday's values. Drier
air aloft moves overhead along with QG descent due to the departing
shortwave trough. It appears unlikely that precipitation will form
but there could be a few light snow showers in the mountains. The
ECMWF shows warm air advection developing in the low levels on
Sunday night with a chance of precipitation forming. Slight chance
PoPs were included in the forecast in the case the ECMWF verifies.

Westerly to southwesterly flow aloft will be over our forecast area
on Monday with lee cyclogenesis developing over the eastern plains.
Models differ as to whether there will be a stream of dry air
moving over our forecast area at during this time or if there will
be a stream of moisture that produces a few bands of
precipitation. At this time, there's not much forecast skill that
can be added here so moderate or "chance" PoPs are in the forecast
across much of the area.

All eyes turn to the Tuesday through Thursday period as a strong
trough moves across the Western US towards the Northern Plains. At
this time range, we will begin to "sound the alarm" for a
potentially significant and rare storm. The ECMWF extreme forecast
index highlights this need to start messaging this system as values
of 0.7 for wind and snowfall indicate an unusual event is likely.
The ECMWF shift of tails being above 0 for much of our CWA and above
1 over the northeast corner for snowfall indicates plenty of
ensemble members are above the 99th percentile of the model climate
and an extreme event is possible. Both of those are somewhat complex
ways to say that if the model verifies, the wind and snow would
produce severe impacts. Having said all that, this does not mean
that there is high confidence in an extreme event occurring. It just
means that it is possible. There are remarkable differences
between the global models and their ensembles that result in low
confidence in the forecast for this period. For example, the
operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF for Wednesday have the
center of a cut-off trough over northern South Dakota and
southwestern Colorado, respectively, which is some 700 miles
apart. As a result, forecast details will need to be vague until
model agreement becomes much better.

There appears to be a few scenarios that could occur from this
system. The first scenario would be a far northern track of the
trough similar to what the GFS has which would lead to mild and
windy conditions across the plains with a potential for increased
fire weather conditions. In this scenario, the plains wouldn't
see much, if any, precipitation while the mountains see a few
inches of snowfall. The second scenario would have the cut-off
trough pass across northern Colorado or southern Wyoming. There
would be significant mountain snowfall in this scenario but the
plains would mostly miss out on the heaviest precipitation as the
dry slot would move overhead for a period of time. The third
scenario is similar to the ECMWF solution as a deep cut-off trough
would move slowly across southern Colorado with an anomalously
strong surface low pressure system developing over eastern
Colorado. This is the ideal setup for major snowstorms in our
forecast area and blizzard conditions would be possible. The EC
ensembles average out to about a foot of snow across much of the
plains with some incredibly strong winds. The ensemble MOS data
has a mean wind of 49 knots at Akron and some members show DIA
seeing wind gusts of 67 knots. This would be the scenario with the
most damaging impacts and it should be the scenario that
preparations are made for despite the low confidence in the
forecast. The gridded forecast has an average of these solutions
since no solution is favored at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Fri Apr 8 2022

VFR through TAF period. Northerly winds expected to develop this
morning, 10-15 kt for the Denver area. Period of NE winds likely
later this afternoon before a return to S/SW drainage flow
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 427 AM MDT Fri Apr 8 2022

Warm and dry weather again today with afternoon minimum humidity
near or just below 15 percent across the plains. There will be
less wind but it will still get a little breezy and there will be
elevated fire weather conditions across much of the plains this
afternoon. Near-critical conditions are likely on the eastern
plains and around the Cheyenne Ridge where winds will be
strongest, with peak afternoon gusts probably 30 to 35 mph. We
didn't issue any fire weather highlights for today as we expect
any critical conditions to be marginal for wind and humidity
thresholds, local in coverage, and limited in time.

With warm temperatures and dry air in place on Saturday, relative
humidity will fall to the upper single digits to low teens across
the plains. Relative humidity will drop to the low teens in South
Park and the southern foothills as well. With a lee cyclone
developing ahead of an approaching trough, wind gusts will likely
reach 25 to 30 mph across much of the plains and up to 35 mph in
South Park and the southern foothills. There is some uncertainty as
to how strong the winds will be across the far eastern plains as
winds aloft are less likely to mix down to the surface there. Due to
the dry and windy conditions, critical fire weather conditions are
expected to form so a Fire Weather Watch was issued for South Park,
the southern foothills, and the plains except for Phillips and
Sedgwick counties.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ238>249.

&&

UPDATE...Rodriguez
SHORT TERM...EJD
LONG TERM...Danielson
AVIATION...Rodriguez
FIRE WEATHER...Danielson/EJD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
911 AM MDT Fri Apr 8 2022

COZ030>051-091515-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
911 AM MDT Fri Apr 8 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Warmer and dry conditions will continue the elevated fire concerns
today despite lighter winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Warm and dry conditions on Saturday along with gusty winds will
create critical fire weather conditions across the plains,
southern foothills, and South Park. A Fire Weather Watch is in
effect from 11 AM to 8 PM for those locations.

Precipitation will fall across the mountains and far northern
plains Saturday night. The higher mountain ridges and peaks could
pick up a couple inches of snow that may create slick travel
conditions.

A potentially significant storm will impact our forecast area
Tuesday and Wednesday. If the worst case scenario were to happen
with this storm, blizzard conditions with heavy snowfall and
damaging winds could occur. There remains a chance that this system
will miss our forecast area to the north with much lower impacts
occurring. It is advised to monitor forecast updates on this
system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.