Red Flag Warning 39, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

848 
WWUS85 KBOU 220057
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
657 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN SATURDAY...

.Dry and breezy weather is forecast again on Saturday across the 
plains, where critical conditions are again possible. The worst
conditions are expected in areas south of Interstate 76 in the
afternoon.

COZ241-245>247-249>251-221100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0039.221022T1700Z-221023T0100Z/
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
657 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...FIRE ZONES 241, 245 THROUGH 247, AND 
249 THROUGH 251...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 241, 245, 246, 247, 249, 
  250 and 251.

* Timing...11 AM Saturday morning until 7 PM MDT Saturday 
  evening.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...There is high potential for rapid fire spread and
  extreme fire behavior.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid any burning or outdoor activities that may produce a spark
and start a wildfire.

&&

$$

COZ238-242>244-248-221100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.A.0029.221022T1700Z-221023T0100Z/
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Logan County-
657 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS...FIRE ZONES 238, 242 THROUGH 244 AND 248...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 238, 242, 243, 244 and 248.

* Timing...Fire Weather Watch in effect from 11 AM Saturday until
  7 PM Saturday evening.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...There is increased potential for rapid fire spread and
  extreme fire behavior.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions 
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings. Consider delaying any burning or outdoor 
activities that may produce a spark and start a wildfire. 

&&

$$

Gimmestad

524 
WWUS85 KBOU 220908
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
308 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN SATURDAY...

.Dry and breezy weather is forecast again on Saturday across the
plains, where critical conditions are again possible. The worst
conditions are expected in areas south of Interstate 76 in the
afternoon.

COZ242>244-221015-
/O.CAN.KBOU.FW.A.0029.221022T1700Z-221023T0100Z/
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
308 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS...FIRE ZONES 242, 243, AND 244...

The National Weather Service in Denver has cancelled the Fire
Weather Watch. Despite low humidities wind will be generally 
under 20 mph. 

$$

COZ238-248-222100-
/O.UPG.KBOU.FW.A.0029.221022T1700Z-221023T0100Z/
/O.EXA.KBOU.FW.W.0039.221022T1700Z-221023T0100Z/
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-Logan County-
308 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF LARIMER AND LOGAN COUNTIES...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 238
AND 248. 

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening. The Fire
Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 238 and 248.

* Timing...Fire Weather Watch in effect from 11 AM Saturday 
  until 7 PM Saturday evening.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...There is increased potential for rapid fire spread 
  and extreme fire behavior.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ215-216-239-222100-
/O.EXA.KBOU.FW.W.0039.221022T1700Z-221023T0100Z/
Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
308 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF BOULDER COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 215, 216 and 239.

* Timing...11 AM Saturday morning until 7 PM MDT Saturday 
  evening.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...There is high potential for rapid fire spread and 
  extreme fire behavior.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ241-245>247-249>251-222100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0039.221022T1700Z-221023T0100Z/
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
308 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...FIRE ZONES 241,
245 THROUGH 247, AND 249 THROUGH 251...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 241, 245, 246, 247, 249, 
  250 and 251.

* Timing...11 AM Saturday morning until 7 PM MDT Saturday 
  evening.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...There is high potential for rapid fire spread and 
  extreme fire behavior.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid any burning or outdoor activities that may produce a spark
and start a wildfire.

&&

$$

598 
WWUS85 KBOU 221139
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
539 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

COZ215-216-238-239-241-245>251-222200-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0039.221022T1700Z-221023T0100Z/
Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
539 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 215, 216, 238, 239, 241, 
  245, 246, 247, 248, 249, 250 and 251.

* Timing...11 AM this morning until 7 PM MDT this evening.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...There is high potential for rapid fire spread and 
  extreme fire behavior.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

507 
WWUS85 KBOU 221526
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
926 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

COZ215-216-238-239-241-245>251-230100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0039.221022T1700Z-221023T0100Z/
Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
926 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 215, 216, 238, 239, 241, 
  245, 246, 247, 248, 249, 250 and 251.

* Timing...11 AM this morning until 7 PM MDT this evening.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...There is high potential for rapid fire spread and 
  extreme fire behavior.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

814 
WWUS85 KBOU 221958
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
158 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

COZ241-245>247-249-230400-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.W.0040.221023T1700Z-221024T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0039.000000T0000Z-221023T0100Z/
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Washington County-
158 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Sunday.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 241, 245, 246, 247 and 249.

* Timing...11 AM Sunday morning until 7 PM MDT Sunday evening.

* Winds...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Impacts...There is high potential for rapid fire spread and 
  extreme fire behavior.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ215-216-238-239-248-250-251-230100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0039.000000T0000Z-221023T0100Z/
Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-Logan County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
158 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 215, 216, 238, 239, 248, 
  250 and 251.

* Timing...11 AM this morning until 7 PM MDT this evening.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...There is high potential for rapid fire spread and 
  extreme fire behavior.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

147 
WWUS85 KBOU 230123
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
723 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AGAIN SUNDAY...

.A cold front will move across eastern Colorado on Sunday.
Southwest winds will gust up to 60 mph in the morning in areas
south of Denver and Akron. The winds will shift to the northwest
with cooling temperatures in the afternoon. The worst conditions
will be in the middle of the day when humidities will be lowest.

COZ241-245>247-249-230930-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0039.000000T0000Z-221023T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0040.221023T1700Z-221024T0100Z/
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Washington County-
723 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 241, 245 THROUGH 247, AND 249...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 241, 245, 246, 247 and 249.

* Timing...11 AM Sunday morning until 7 PM MDT Sunday evening.

* Winds...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...There is high potential for rapid fire spread and 
  extreme fire behavior.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid open burning or outdoor activities that could create a
spark.

&&

$$

COZ215-216-238-239-248-250-251-230230-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0039.000000T0000Z-221023T0100Z/
Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-Logan County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
723 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...

Winds have diminished and humidities are improving.

$$

Gimmestad

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1128 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2022

No significant changes to the forecast have been made this
morning. We're quickly warming and drying out out this morning
across the plains, with a few surface obs along the Wyoming border
already flirting with Red Flag conditions. No changes on the
timing for the RFW for now given the mountain valleys will need a
couple hours to warm/dry out.

Did make some minor adjustments to the T/Td/RH and sky grids
today, but otherwise the previous forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2022

There will be a moderate west to northwest flow aloft over
Colorado today. Satellite imagery showing some mountain wave
clouds development over the Front Range and this should continue
through the morning hours making for partly to mostly cloudy
skies over the Front Range. Given the current cloudiness will have
to adjust sky grids for more clouds this morning. Given the
mountain wave conditions, surface observations showing some gusty
winds over the higher mountains but generally under 40 mph.
Temperatures will be similar to yesterday's readings despite some
slight cooling noted at 700mb. Expect the increasing downslope
westerly flow to aid in some warming allowing the similar
temperatures and counteracting any low level cooling. Airmass
again remains very dry so no precipitation expected through
tonight.

Cross sections showing winds will likely increase again by later
tonight over the mountains and exposed east slopes. Cross barrier
flow increasing to 40-50kt by later tonight and expected wind
gusts up to 60 mph. The winds will also result in mild temperatures
tonight over the foothills and adjacent plains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2022

Southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen on Saturday as a trough
deepens over the Intermountain West. This flow will be very dry with
few clouds and low surface relative humidities. With the
downslope flow and mostly sunny skies, temperatures will warm well
above normal with a high approaching 80 in Denver. This should be
short of the record high of 84 for the date. The primary concern
on Saturday will be fire weather conditions. Minimum relative
humidity will certainly be below the 15 percent threshold across
the plains. There is less confidence that the winds will meet the
25 mph threshold as the surface pressure gradient isn't very
strong. The higher elevation areas like the Palmer Ridge will have
a better chance of reaching Red Flag criteria than relatively
lower elevations in and near the South Platte River Valley. There
may need to be fire weather highlights especially in the southern
part of our CWA.

Saturday night and into Sunday, the aforementioned trough will move
eastward toward Colorado with moisture increasing in the mountains.
The mountains will begin to see snow as the snow level will
initially be around 9,000 feet but it will lower throughout the
day on Sunday. There now seems to be good model consensus that
the trough will separate into two shortwaves that progress on
different trajectories. The first shortwave will move across
Colorado Sunday night and into the Northern Plains on Monday.
There will be strong lee cyclogenesis across northeastern Colorado
and a cold front will move across our CWA later in the day on
Sunday. A secondary shortwave trough stays behind in the Four
Corners region eventually moving southeastward across Arizona and
New Mexico. A secondary surface low pressure system will develop
in eastern New Mexico and the majority of precipitation will end
up missing our CWA from this system. What this means for our
forecast area is that the mountains will see a moderate amount of
snow likely within the Winter Weather Advisory criteria of 4 to 10
inches. The heaviest precipitation will end up skipping over the
eastern plains but there will be a couple chances for measurable
precipitation. The main chance will come Sunday evening as a cold
front moves across the area while QG ascent from the trough moves
overhead. There could be a couple of precipitation bands that
produce rain and snow showers across the plains that may result
in the first measurable snowfall for a few areas. Any snow that
sticks will stay below an inch and most areas will only see a
trace. What appears to be the biggest concern during this period
is the strong winds that occur on Sunday. The ECMWF extreme
forecast index highlights east-central and southeast Colorado as
having a high chance of wind speeds reaching the top of the
climatological range for this time of year. ECMWF ensembles have
quite the strong signal for high winds as the mean wind speed
Sunday afternoon for KDEN is 42 mph with a max of 62 mph. The
signal was strong enough to increase sustained winds and wind
gusts in the forecast toward the NBM 90th percentile. Forecast
gusts reach up to 50 mph in Lincoln County and above 40 mph for
much of the eastern plains. This will create two additional
potential impacts, blowing dust and fire weather. The recently dry
conditions along with the gusty winds could create blowing dust
that lowers visibility along and near I-70 in eastern Colorado.
Furthermore, the warm conditions along with relative humidities
close to 15 percent, may lead to Red Flag conditions yet again.

Temperatures will be much cooler on Monday on the backside of a cold
front. There is a slight chance the southern part of our CWA
receives light rain or snow showers from the secondary shortwave
trough and it is reflected in the PoPs and weather grids.

Weak ridging aloft moves over Colorado on Tuesday with downslope
winds increasing temperatures across the plains. High temperatures
appear poised to increase further on Wednesday as southwesterly flow
aloft increases ahead of the next shortwave trough. Models are
rather progressive with this next trough and forecast it to move
across our forecast area on Thursday. There will be a good chance
of mountain snowfall while the plains may see a mix of rain and
snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2022

VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds will continue at BJC
through tomorrow afternoon, with sporadic gusts around 25kt. At
DEN/APA, winds should continue turning more to the W-WNW this
afternoon. A couple gusts of 20-25kt will be possible but
confidence is still fairly low. Winds will diminish by 00z with
drainage flow tonight. A shift back to westerly winds is likely
again tomorrow. No ceiling or visibility impacts are anticipated
through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2022

Main impact concerns today are the critical fire weather conditions
over the high mountain valleys and lower elevations near the
northern border areas with Wyoming and Nebraska. Humidity levels
will be dropping into the 7-15 percent range while wind gusts up
to 30- 35kt across high mountain parks and lower elevations over
our northern borders. Will continue with the Red Flag warnings as
already posted.

Saturday and Sunday will have fire weather concerns before cooler
temperatures and increased moisture lower fire danger during next
work week. On Saturday, there is high confidence that minimum
relative humidity be below 15 percent across the plains. The
limiting factor for fire weather conditions will be winds as they
will be near the 25 mph threshold. Winds are more likely to be
stronger along and near the Palmer Ridge and a Red Flag Warning
may be needed there. Farther north, winds will be lighter and
highlights may be avoided in the South Platte River Valley.

On Sunday, there is high confidence that winds will be above the 25
mph threshold as they may approach 50 mph across Lincoln County.
The limiting factor for fire weather conditions will be relative
humidity and the timing of the cold front. Relative humidity will
be in the upper to mid teens across the east-central plains so Red
Flag conditions seems likely there. Relative humidity will be
higher farther north and a cold front will move through in the
afternoon which may keep areas to the north of a line from Boulder
to Fort Morgan from having Red Flag Warnings issued there.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ211-213>215-
238-242-248-250-251.

&&

UPDATE...Hiris
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Danielson
AVIATION...Hiris
FIRE WEATHER...Entrekin/Danielson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1044 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2022

COZ030>051-221645-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1044 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Warm and very dry conditions will prevail again today. Elevated to
critical fire weather conditions are expected over much of the
area this afternoon with low humidities and gusty winds. Winds
will diminish over the plains this evening but gusty winds will
continue in the mountains over night with speeds up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Warm, dry, and breezy weather on Saturday may result in critical
fire weather conditions during the afternoon across the eastern
plains.

A strong storm system will move across our forecast area on
Sunday. This system will create gusty winds up to 50 mph across
the eastern plains which may lead to blowing dust. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible again due to the mild, dry, and
windy conditions.

The mountains will see moderate snow amounts Saturday night through
Monday with slick travel conditions expected, especially over the
mountain passes. Light precipitation is possible across the I-25
corridor and eastern plains Sunday evening and into Monday behind
the passage of a strong cold front. These areas could see a mix
of rain and snow showers during this period.

The next system arrives on Thursday bringing mountain snowfall
and possibly mixed precipitation to the plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.