Red Flag Warning 32, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

449 
WWUS85 KBOU 151950
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
150 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022

COZ214-160100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0032.000000T0000Z-220616T0100Z/
Central and Southeast Park County-
150 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 214...
SOUTH PARK...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 214.

* Timing...Red Flag conditions will continue through the rest of
  the afternoon. Conditions will ease late this evening.

* Winds...West around 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Any fires that start will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1218 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Satellite and radar shows an area of convection over the
northeastern plains of Colorado, supported by the right rear
entrance region of an upper level jet. The individual cells are
screaming off to the northeast, while the entire area has changed
very little over the last 2-3 hours. We did increase PoPs there
for the rest of the evening given these latest trends. By
midnight, this area may shift eastward toward the Kansas and
Nebraska borders although there is little change in the location
of the right rear entrance region of the upper jet. Thus, we're
not totally convinced it moves as quickly as the convective
allowing models suggest.

Outside of that, an outflow boundary is moving back across the
I-25 Corridor. That may delay our heating a little into tomorrow,
but overall sunny skies and warmer temperatures will prevail with
high temperatures warming back into the mid to upper 80s across
the plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022

It's a relatively quiet day today across the forecast area.
Satellite shows partly cloudy skies over much of the state with a
few virga showers apparent on radar. A well defined Denver Cyclone
is lifting north towards DIA and is clearly visible in TDEN
velocity data and various surface observations from across the
metro. Temperatures across the region are in the upper 70s to low
80s and our temperatures shouldn't warm more than a couple more
degrees.

A calm night is expected over the high country and urban corridor
tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible late this
evening into the overnight hours for the far northeastern plains
as a weak shortwave glides across the region. Can't rule out a
strong thunderstorm or two closer for Phillips or Sedgwick
counties tonight, though most CAMs don't develop much on this side
of the CO/NE border.

Tomorrow will be warmer with much drier air advecting into the
region. Precipitable water values will be near or less than a
quarter of an inch, and most areas will struggle to see more than
a few clouds. Mid-level temperatures will be a couple degrees
warmer than today and thus highs should make it into the mid to
upper 80s. The warm, dry, and breezy conditions should lead to
elevated fire weather conditions as well.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected across North
Central and Northeastern Colorado on Thursday as upper level high
pressure rebuilds over the Rocky Mountain Region. On Friday, the
upper ridge amplifies over the Central Plains. as a large upper
level trough deepens along the west coast of the U.S. Colorado will
lie between these two systems under the influence of a south to
southwesterly flow aloft Friday and Saturday. This pattern will
allow a plume of subtropical moisture to flow into the western half
of Colorado resulting in scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms across the high country both days. With
anomalous high PW's and some instability, some of the storms could
produce brief heavy rain which could pose a flash flood threat to
area burn scars. Further to the east, the plains should remain hot
and dry with the exception of some activity moving out of the
foothills into the adjacent plains and western sections of the
Palmer Divide. Due to much above normal temperatures for this time
of year and the host of outdoor activities in the area, are considering
the possibility of issuing a heat advisory for the Front Range
Urban Corridor.

Sunday into Monday, the large upper trough is progged to lift into
the Northern Rockies as the upper high moves into the Southeastern
U.S. This should allow the plume of moisture to shift eastward into
Northeastern Colorado resulting in a better chance for afternoon and
evening showers and storms across the plains and Palmer Divide. The
high country should continue to see a good chance for showers and
storms on Sunday with locally heavy rainfall possible.

By Tuesday, models are suggesting lesser precipitation chances
across the CWA as a drier westerly flow aloft sets up over the
state.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1215 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022

VFR through Wednesday. South to southeast winds at KDEN/KAPA will
become east to northeast between 18z-21z, then back to south to
southeast around 02z. BJC will have light winds becoming easterly
in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast over the area on
Wednesday, especially across the Foothills and high country. Drier
and warmer weather will lead to humidities falling below 15%
across almost the entirety of the forecast area. Winds should
remain fairly light across the plains with gusts up to 35-40 mph
possible at higher elevations. We would likely need some sort of
headlines if fuels were ready, but will hold off given the
considerable green-up we've seen in the past few weeks.

Dry and hot weather will lead to elevated fire danger across the
plains and Palmer Divide through Friday. A plume of subtropical
moisture should bring wetting rains to the high country Friday
through the weekend. This plume is forecasted to shift east across
the plains Sunday into Monday resulting in a reduction in the
fire danger.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Subtropical moisture is expected to increase across the western
half of Colorado on Friday and continue through the weekend. This
increased moister combined with daytime heating may lead to brief
localized heavy rainfall in the high country with the potential
for flash flooding in the burn scars. Elsewhere, the threat of
flooding outside of burn areas looks low.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...Kalina
AVIATION...Gimmestad
FIRE WEATHER...Hiris/Kalina
HYDROLOGY...Kalina

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
949 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022

COZ030>051-151600-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
949 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Today will be cooler with near normal temperatures. There will be
gusty winds with gusts up to 50 mph across the higher mountain
terrain and up to 35 mph across the plains. The dry and windy
conditions over the plains and foothills will lead to elevated
fire weather conditions. A few isolated showers and storms are
possible this afternoon and tonight across far northeastern
Colorado. The strongest storms could produce some hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Wednesday will be warm and breezy, then it will become hot again
starting Thursday through the weekend. Elevated fire weather
conditions will continue, with some improvement as moisture
gradually increases going into the weekend. There will bring a
chance for storms starting Friday mainly across the higher
terrain with the potential for burn area flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
1247 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022

COZ051-150715-
Phillips County CO-
1247 AM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Phillips County through 115 AM MDT...

At 1247 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Holyoke, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Holyoke and Pleasant Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10239 4051 10244 4074 10205 4044 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 241DEG 45KT 4038 10229

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

GIMMESTAD