Red Flag Warning 24, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Boulder County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Clear Creek County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Gilpin County, CO, Grand County, CO, Jackson County, CO, Jefferson County, CO, Larimer County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Park County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Summit County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO

769 
WWUS85 KBOU 102038
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
238 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions for most of North Central and
Northeast Colorado on Wednesday...

COZ214-216-241-246-247-110445-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-220511T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0024.220511T1500Z-220512T0300Z/
Central and Southeast Park County-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
238 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH PARK, THE PALMER
DIVIDE, AND THE SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS. 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH PARK, THE PALMER DIVIDE,
AND THE SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS....

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 214, 216, 241, 246 and 247.

* Timing...Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM this evening. 
  Red Flag Warning in effect from 9 AM until 9 PM Wednesday.

* Winds...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that starts will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly and would be difficult to control. Avoid 
  burning or any outdoor activity that may produce a spark and 
  start a wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ211-213-238>240-242>245-248>251-110445-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0024.220511T1500Z-220512T0300Z/
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-Northeast Weld County-
Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-Logan County-
Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
238 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MIDDLE PARK,
NORTH PARK, AND THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 211, 213, 238, 239, 240, 
  242, 243, 244, 245, 248, 249, 250 and 251.

* Timing...Red Flag Warning from 9 am to 9 pm Wednesday.

* Winds...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that starts will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Avoid burning or any outdoor activity that may 
  produce a spark and start a wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

820 
WWUS85 KBOU 110302
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
902 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions for most of North Central and
Northeast Colorado on Wednesday...

COZ214-216-241-246-247-111115-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-220511T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0024.220511T1500Z-220512T0300Z/
Central and Southeast Park County-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
902 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH PARK, THE
PALMER DIVIDE, AND THE SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS. 

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH PARK, THE PALMER DIVIDE, AND 
THE SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS... 

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 214, 216, 241, 246 and 247.

* Timing...Red Flag Warning in effect from 9 AM until 9 PM 
  Wednesday.

* Winds...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that starts will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly and would be difficult to control. Avoid 
  burning or any outdoor activity that may produce a spark and 
  start a wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ211-213-238>240-242>245-248>251-111115-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0024.220511T1500Z-220512T0300Z/
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-Northeast Weld County-
Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-Logan County-
Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
902 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MIDDLE PARK, NORTH PARK, AND 
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 211, 213, 238, 239, 240, 
  242, 243, 244, 245, 248, 249, 250 and 251.

* Timing...Red Flag Warning from 9 am to 9 pm Wednesday.

* Winds...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that starts will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Avoid burning or any outdoor activity that may 
  produce a spark and start a wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

264 
WWUS85 KBOU 111040
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
440 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions for most of North Central and
Northeast Colorado on Wednesday...

COZ211-213-214-216-238>251-112100-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.A.0018.220512T1500Z-220513T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0024.220511T1500Z-220512T0300Z/
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
440 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE 
ZONES 211, 213 THROUGH 216, AND 238 THROUGH 251 FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN 
PARKS...SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND ALL NORTHEAST PLAINS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY 
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE ZONES 211, 213 THROUGH 216, AND 238 THROUGH 251
FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN PARKS...SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND ALL 
NORTHEAST PLAINS...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect from
Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 211, 213, 214, 216, 238, 
  239, 240, 241, 242, 243, 244, 245, 246, 247, 248, 249, 250 and 
  251.

* Timing...Red Flag Warning from 9 am to 9 pm Wednesday. A Fire
  Weather Watch is in effect from 9 am to 9 pm Thursday. 

* Winds...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that starts will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Avoid burning or any outdoor activity that may 
  produce a spark and start a wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

107 
WWUS85 KBOU 112018
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
218 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions for most of North Central and
Northeast Colorado on Wednesday and Thursday...

COZ214-216-238>251-120430-
/O.UPG.KBOU.FW.A.0018.220512T1500Z-220513T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.W.0025.220512T1500Z-220513T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-220512T0300Z/
Central and Southeast Park County-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
218 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS, AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR 
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 214, 216, 238, 239, 240, 
  241, 242, 243, 244, 245, 246, 247, 248, 249, 250 and 251.

* Timing...Red Flag Warning from 9 am to 9 pm Wednesday and
  Thursday

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that starts will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Avoid burning or any outdoor activity that may 
  produce a spark and start a wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ215-120430-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.W.0025.220512T1500Z-220513T0300Z/
Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
218 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 215.

* Timing...Red Flag Warning from 9 am to 9 pm Thursday

* Winds...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 16 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that starts will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Avoid burning or any outdoor activity that may 
  produce a spark and start a wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ211-213-120430-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-220512T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.A.0018.220512T1500Z-220513T0300Z/
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
218 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PARKS...
 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING 
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PARKS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 211 and 213.

* Timing...Red Flag Warning from 9 am to 9 pm Wednesday. A Fire 
  Weather Watch is in effect from 9 am to 9 pm Thursday.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that starts will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Avoid burning or any outdoor activity that may 
  produce a spark and start a wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

520 
WWUS85 KBOU 120255
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
855 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions for most of North Central and
Northeast Colorado on Thursday...

COZ214-216-238>251-121100-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-220512T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0025.220512T1500Z-220513T0300Z/
Central and Southeast Park County-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
855 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY 
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS 
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, SOUTHERN 
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS, AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 214, 216, 238, 239, 240, 
  241, 242, 243, 244, 245, 246, 247, 248, 249, 250 and 251.

* Timing...Red Flag Warning from 9 am to 9 pm Wednesday and 
  Thursday

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that starts will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Avoid burning or any outdoor activity that may 
  produce a spark and start a wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ211-213-121100-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-220512T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.A.0018.220512T1500Z-220513T0300Z/
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
855 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 
THURSDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HIGH 
MOUNTAIN PARKS... 

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PARKS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 211 and 213.

* Timing...Red Flag Warning from 9 am to 9 pm Wednesday. A Fire 
  Weather Watch is in effect from 9 am to 9 pm Thursday.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that starts will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Avoid burning or any outdoor activity that may 
  produce a spark and start a wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ215-121100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0025.220512T1500Z-220513T0300Z/
Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
855 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY 
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE 
FOOTHILLS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 215.

* Timing...Red Flag Warning from 9 am to 9 pm Thursday

* Winds...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 16 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that starts will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Avoid burning or any outdoor activity that may 
  produce a spark and start a wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1050 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022

No significant updates to today's forecast were needed.
Temperatures and winds are progressing as expected with current
temps in the 50s across the plains, on their way to the 70s. The
mountain valleys will reach the 60s by afternoon, no updates
needed there either. The only minor update was made to the winds
across the plains. CAMS continue to support the formation of a
Denver Cyclone, and the ingredients are ideal for it's formation.
Decent SW flow aloft should enable the cyclone to move northeast
this afternoon and evening. The best bet of where the cyclone will
form looks to be central Douglas County, then jit should move just
southeast of DIA, then into far SE Weld/W Morgan counties by
sunset. We've adjusted winds accordingly but overall very little
was changed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022

|The next Pacific storm system will slide southward through
Northern and Central California through tonight with a moderate
downstream southwest flow aloft over Colorado. The airmass will be
quite dry with this flow so no chance of showers over the next 24
hours. There will be neutral to weak synoptic scale subsidence as
noted on QG fields also helping to keep the airmass suppressed.

Across the northern Front Range foothills and adjacent plains,
observations and satellite imagery showing a stratus deck in the
6000-7000ft agl range due to last evenings cold front and shallow
upslope flow. The stratus deck not making much progress eastward so
will keep it confined from Northwest Denver and extending
northward to the Wyoming border. Stratus should dissipate by mid
morning.

Deepening surface low pressure over South Central  Colorado will
result in an increasing southeast winds over the plains, especially
this afternoon and evening. The southeast flow will also result
in a developing Denver cyclone with northern winds developing
North and northwest of Denver and a little cooler temperatures by
later this afternoon. With the continue southeast flow tonight on
the plains, there are hints of low clouds and fog developing over
the far northeast plains. Will add some to the upcoming forecast
package.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022

The general upper level pattern supports above normal temperatures
and dry conditions for the long term period. With periods of breezy
conditions, the threat for elevated to critical fire weather
conditions will be the main concern for the period.

Wednesday, a shortwave trough moves across the Great Basin inducing
SSW flow aloft across CO. Can't rule out the potential for fog/low
stratus in the northeast corner early Thurs morning with model
soundings indicating a strong inversion with a moist layer at the
surface.

An area of enhanced 700mb flow positions over the region during the
day as the trough lifts north. Model soundings indicate well-mixed
profiles in the afternoon, supporting potential for gusty winds in
the 30-40 mph range across portions of the plains. Dry subsident
flow in place and 700 mb temperatures warming to near 15C will
support low relative humidities and well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures across the plains near the 90 degree mark, so the
previous Denver record of 90F set in 1961 may be in jeopardy. The
mentioned conditions will enhance the threat for critical fire
weather conditions across most of the region. Towards the evening
Wednesday,  most of the best synoptic ascent with the system remains
to the north. Although limited in magnitude, instability and some
moisture set up over the eastern plains which may support showers
and a few thunderstorms near the north and east plains that evening.

The main trough axis lifts to the north on Thursday bringing a weak
cold front. Expect cooler temperatures Thursday, although highs will
still be above normal. As far as moisture goes, model guidance
doesn't indicate much relief behind the front. There is a lower
chance (10-20%) for a few showers over the higher terrain Thursday
morning before strong synoptic descent works in. Combined with
breezy W/NE flow behind the front (25-35 mph), this will bring
another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Model
cross-sections also indicate potential for higher gusts Thursday
morning(35-45mph) over the higher mountains with westerly component
flow aloft.

Ensemble cluster analysis shows general agreement with a transition
to a zonal pattern starting Friday with weak ridging building in for
Sunday/Monday. This will be accompanied by above normal temperatures
and dry conditions. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions
will remain a threat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1010 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022

VFR through Wednesday.  A Denver Cyclone will form southwest of
the metro area, then move northeast this afternoon into the
evening hours. This means winds will shift suddenly at the
terminals, but especially at DIA. For now, SE winds will be the
norm through early afternoon hours, and any gusts should remain 25
kts or less. As the cyclone approaches DIA, winds should go from
ESE, to ENE, then to NNW, all in the span of an hour or two. The
turn in the winds will probably commence around 2-3 PM, and by 4-5
PM winds should be NW at 10-15 kts. This of course assumes the
cyclone moves northeast with the speed all the high res models are
showing, but typically with strong southwest flow aloft the
cyclone should behave that way. In any case, it's the best we can
do right now. APA will probably just see SE going SW then W by
early evening. BJC should be solidly out of the NW most of the
afternoon.

Tonight, light winds under 10 kts will be the norm, and generally
out of the SW. Winds will again pick up significantly by midday Wednesday
and continue through the afternoon. The direction is expected to
be southwest the entire day, and during the afternoon hours both
APA and DIA should be 20-25 kt sustained with gusts to 35 kts. BJC
should have a little less wind as it will be sheltered from
stronger southwest winds to a small degree by the terrain to the
west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 404 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022

Expect another day of critical fire weather conditions, again
over the southern sections of the county warning area, mainly from
South Park, southern Jefferson county and extending eastward over
the Palmer Divide. Given the southeast winds which will be pulling
in higher dewpoint air, humidities may be more borderline over
northern Lincoln county and also northern portions of Elbert and
Douglas counties. For now will leave the red flag warning as is
with gusts up to 40 mph and minimum humidities between 10 and 22
percent.

Forecast remains consistent in signaling the potential for critical
fire weather conditions Wednesday. Minimum relative humidities 7-11
percent are possible south of I-70 with locations north of that in
the 10-15 percent range. With model soundings indicating efficient
mixing down to the surface in the afternoon hours, gusty wind
potential is looking likely across most areas with gusts 30-40 mph.
The best chances for the upper end of that range will be in the
southern foothills, S. Park County, and the Palmer Divide. Low
relative humidities will be in place over the high terrain leading
to elevated to critical conditions in areas without snow. A Fire
Weather Watch remains in effect for the plains, S. Park County, and
portions of the mountains for Wednesday. This is a good likelihood
this will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, especially for areas
south of I-70.

A weak front moves through Thursday cooling temperatures slightly.
Dry air moves in by Thursday afternoon with gusts 25-35 mph behind
the front. With relative humidity values at least 15 across the
plains and S. Park County, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions are likely in those areas. The synoptic-scale pattern
supports dry conditions and above normal temperatures Friday through
early next week increasing potential for fire weather highlights.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for COZ211-213-214-216-238>251.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ214-216-241-
246-247.

&&

UPDATE...Schlatter
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Schlatter
FIRE WEATHER...Entrekin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1052 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022

COZ030>051-111700-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1052 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022

...Critical Fire weather conditions expected again over South
Park....Southern Front Range foothills...and portions of the
Palmer Divide today...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There will be elevated fire weather conditions across northeast
Colorado in the afternoon, with the most critical conditions
across the southern part of the forecast area again. Red flag
warnings have been issued for South Park, the southern Front Range
foothills, and Palmer Divide from late this morning through the
evening hours for gusty southeast winds and low humidities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Wednesday, will be significantly warmer still and more dry with
breezy winds again and another Fire Weather Watch is very likely.

Warm, dry, breezy conditions likely persist straight through the
latter half of the week and weekend; fire weather highlights seem
likely every day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.