Special Weather Statement, NWS Boise, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
109 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Thunderstorms were
already developing early this afternoon. None of the thunderstorms
appear to be strong at this time, although the hi-res models
indicate stronger storms developing later this afternoon through
this evening. Our area remains within a marginal risk (defined by
by the Storm Prediction Center for severe storms that are either
limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and
marginal intensity) for for severe thunderstorms capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds. The Boise sounding this
morning indicates a precipitable water value of around an inch
along with surface dewpoints in the 50s. Therefore, the
thunderstorms will be accompanied by heavy rainfall, but the
faster storm motion will limit the threat of flash flooding. The
convection will decrease in strength and coverage late this
evening and end by early Monday morning. A drier more stable
westerly flow arrives on Monday. A weak upper trough will skirt
our far northern areas (Baker County to the West Central
Mountains) for a chance of showers and a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms. The trough will exit the area Monday
night. Dry weather prevails on Tuesday as a weak upper ridge moves
into the area. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal
on Monday and within a few degrees of normal on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...A deepening trough over
the Gulf of Alaska will allow the four corners region to build
northward Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will be near
normal on Wednesday before warming 5-10 degrees by Friday. The
trough and associated cold front reaches the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday developing showers and thunderstorms. The front moves
through the region on Sunday bring cooler temperatures along with
a chance for precipitation across much of the region. Temperatures
cool around 10-15 degrees by Sunday behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Scattered thunderstorms through late
tonight. Thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain, wind gusts up
to 40kt and small hail. Areas of mountain obscuration and local
MVFR/IFR conditions. Surface winds: mainly SW-SE 5-10kt increasing
to 10-20kt from 18z/Sun-02z/Mon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 15-
25kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS

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