Wind Advisory 4, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

007 
WWUS74 KBMX 112137
NPWBMX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
337 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

ALZ042-047-120700-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FZ.W.0001.220312T0600Z-220313T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KBMX.WI.Y.0004.220312T0400Z-220313T0000Z/
Lowndes-Lee-
Including the cities of Fort Deposit, Hayneville, Auburn, 
and Opelika
337 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT TO
10 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low
  as 32 on Saturday morning and 21 on Sunday morning expected. For
  the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to
  40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Lee and Lowndes Counties.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from midnight CST tonight to 10 
  AM CDT Sunday. For the Wind Advisory, from 10 PM this evening 
  to 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

ALZ011>015-017>041-043-120700-
/O.EXT.KBMX.WI.Y.0004.220312T0400Z-220313T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBMX.FZ.W.0001.220312T0600Z-220313T1500Z/
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-
Cherokee-Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-
Talladega-Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-
Coosa-Tallapoosa-Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Elmore-
Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette, 
Double Springs, Jasper, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Centre, 
Heflin, Carrollton, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Hoover, Columbiana, 
Pelham, Alabaster, Pell City, Moody, Talladega, Sylacauga, 
Ashland, Roanoke, Livingston, Eutaw, Greensboro, Moundville, 
Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Rockford, Alexander City, 
Dadeville, Valley, Lanett, Lafayette, Demopolis, Linden, Selma, 
Prattville, Wetumpka, and Tallassee
337 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT TO
10 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub freezing temperatures as low
  as 23 on Saturday morning and 17 on Sunday morning expected. For
  the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up 
  to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Alabama.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from midnight CST tonight to 10 
  AM CDT Sunday. For the Wind Advisory, from 10 PM this evening 
  to 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Some areas in the northern portions of
  central Alabama may not go above freezing all day on Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

ALZ044>046-048>050-120700-
/O.EXT.KBMX.WI.Y.0004.220312T0400Z-220313T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBMX.FZ.W.0001.220313T0600Z-220313T1500Z/
Montgomery-Macon-Bullock-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
Including the cities of Montgomery, Tuskegee, Union Springs, 
Phenix City, Troy, and Eufaula
337 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low
  as 20 expected. For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 30
  mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Pike, Russell, Bullock, Barbour, Macon and Montgomery 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from midnight CST Saturday 
  night to 10 AM CDT Sunday. For the Wind Advisory, from 10 PM 
  this evening to 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

388 
WWUS74 KBMX 120602
NPWBMX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1202 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

ALZ011>015-017>043-047-121515-
/O.CON.KBMX.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220313T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBMX.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220313T0000Z/
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-
Cherokee-Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-
Talladega-Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-
Coosa-Tallapoosa-Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-
Lee-
Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette, 
Double Springs, Jasper, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Centre, 
Heflin, Carrollton, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Hoover, Columbiana, 
Pelham, Alabaster, Pell City, Moody, Talladega, Sylacauga, 
Ashland, Roanoke, Livingston, Eutaw, Greensboro, Moundville, 
Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Rockford, Alexander City, 
Dadeville, Valley, Lanett, Lafayette, Demopolis, Linden, Selma, 
Prattville, Fort Deposit, Hayneville, Wetumpka, Tallassee, 
Auburn, and Opelika
1202 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub freezing temperatures as 
  low as 23 on Saturday morning and 17 on Sunday morning 
  expected. For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph 
  with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Alabama.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, until 10 AM CDT Sunday. For the
  Wind Advisory, until 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Some areas in the northern portions of 
  central Alabama may not go above freezing all day on Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

ALZ044>046-048>050-121515-
/O.CON.KBMX.FZ.W.0001.220313T0600Z-220313T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBMX.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220313T0000Z/
Montgomery-Macon-Bullock-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
Including the cities of Montgomery, Tuskegee, Union Springs, 
Phenix City, Troy, and Eufaula
1202 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub freezing temperatures as low
  as 20 expected. For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 30
  mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Pike, Russell, Bullock, Barbour, Macon and Montgomery 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from midnight CST Saturday night
  to 10 AM CDT Sunday. For the Wind Advisory, until 6 PM CST 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

914 
WWUS74 KBMX 121151
NPWBMX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
551 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

ALZ044>046-048>050-122100-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FZ.W.0001.220313T0200Z-220313T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBMX.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220313T0000Z/
Montgomery-Macon-Bullock-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
Including the cities of Montgomery, Tuskegee, Union Springs, 
Phenix City, Troy, and Eufaula
551 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM CST THIS EVENING TO
10 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub freezing temperatures as 
  low as 20 expected. For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 20 
  to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Pike, Russell, Bullock, Barbour, Macon and Montgomery 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from 8 PM CST this evening to 
  10 AM CDT Sunday. For the Wind Advisory, until 6 PM CST this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

ALZ011>015-017>043-047-122100-
/O.CON.KBMX.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220313T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBMX.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220313T0000Z/
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-
Cherokee-Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-
Talladega-Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-
Coosa-Tallapoosa-Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-
Lee-
Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette, 
Double Springs, Jasper, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Centre, 
Heflin, Carrollton, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Hoover, Columbiana, 
Pelham, Alabaster, Pell City, Moody, Talladega, Sylacauga, 
Ashland, Roanoke, Livingston, Eutaw, Greensboro, Moundville, 
Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Rockford, Alexander City, 
Dadeville, Valley, Lanett, Lafayette, Demopolis, Linden, Selma, 
Prattville, Fort Deposit, Hayneville, Wetumpka, Tallassee, 
Auburn, and Opelika
551 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub freezing temperatures as low
  as 15 on Sunday morning expected. For the Wind Advisory, 
  northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Alabama.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, until 10 AM CDT Sunday. For the 
  Wind Advisory, until 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Some areas in the northern portions of 
  central Alabama may not go above freezing all day on Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

816 
WWUS74 KBMX 122106
NPWBMX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
306 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

ALZ011>015-017>043-047-130200-
/O.CON.KBMX.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220313T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBMX.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220313T0000Z/
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-
Cherokee-Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-
Talladega-Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-
Coosa-Tallapoosa-Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-
Lee-
Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette, 
Double Springs, Jasper, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Centre, 
Heflin, Carrollton, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Hoover, Columbiana, 
Pelham, Alabaster, Pell City, Moody, Talladega, Sylacauga, 
Ashland, Roanoke, Livingston, Eutaw, Greensboro, Moundville, 
Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Rockford, Alexander City, 
Dadeville, Valley, Lanett, Lafayette, Demopolis, Linden, Selma, 
Prattville, Fort Deposit, Hayneville, Wetumpka, Tallassee, 
Auburn, and Opelika
306 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub freezing temperatures as low
  as 18 to 23 on Sunday morning expected. For the Wind Advisory, 
  northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Alabama.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, until 10 AM CDT Sunday. For the 
  Wind Advisory, until 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

ALZ044>046-048>050-130200-
/O.CON.KBMX.FZ.W.0001.220313T0200Z-220313T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBMX.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220313T0000Z/
Montgomery-Macon-Bullock-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
Including the cities of Montgomery, Tuskegee, Union Springs, 
Phenix City, Troy, and Eufaula
306 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM CST THIS EVENING TO
10 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub freezing temperatures as low
  as 21 to 24 on Sunday morning expected. For the Wind Advisory, 
  northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Pike, Russell, Bullock, Barbour, Macon and Montgomery 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from 8 PM CST this evening to 
  10 AM CDT Sunday. For the Wind Advisory, until 6 PM CST this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1116 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1149 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022/

Clouds lingering over the far southeastern counties this afternoon
will continue to clear with mostly clear skies remaining across
the rest of the state into the evening. Winds will be fairly
light with high temperatures in the 60's and lower 70's.

Tonight...mid level flow will transition to out of the southwest
and along with low level easterly flow...moisture and temperature
advection will set up over the state. Clouds will increase from
southeast to northwest through the night into Friday morning. Low
temperatures will be in the lower 40's to lower 50's. With
increased low level moisture, fog development is possible in areas
south of I85...though expect this to remain patchy at best.

Friday...rain will increase from south to north through the
morning as a surface low starts developing west of the MS River
Valley. Instabilities will be minimal...though moisture will be
plentiful with PW values slightly higher than the 90th percentile
for this time of year. The morning will begin with scattered
showers mainly in areas south of I-85...with more widespread
showers possible across the entire southern half of the state by
the afternoon. Enough forcing will be present for some rumbles of
thunder...though not expecting anything severe through early
Friday afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will be in the
upper 60's and lower 70's.

24

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0309 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022/

The previous forecaster did a fantastic job discussing the
complex forecast for Friday night and Saturday. Thus, I'll only
focus on the particulars and the headlines/changes made.

 - Winter Wx: Today's model guidance was enough to increase
   confidence to levels necessary for issuance of a Winter Weather
   Advisory - perhaps a little ahead of schedule. This generally
   covers counties along and north of the I-59 corridor where snow
   totals up to one half inch are possible. This will mainly occur
   on grassy and elevated surfaces, as well as higher terrain.
   Additionally, there's growing confidence of higher totals
   impacting our far northwest counties, mainly Marion and
   Winston. Hi-res guidance suggests strong frontogenetic forcing
   could collocate with a saturated dendritic growth zone, if only
   for a couple hours. A mesoscale band of higher rates/totals
   could result. A this time, a Winter Storm Watch was not issued,
   but we'll closely monitor. Totals up to 2" should be expected
   in this area for now. We've updated our winter impact graphic
   accordingly.

 - Severe Wx: Not a lot of change in expectations here. However,
   my only concern in latest hi-res guidance was the trajectory of
   the deepening surface low across the I-85 corridor (where my
   best confidence is this may occur). With such a dynamic system,
   and the pressure falls associated with the strengthening low,
   sufficient surface-based instability for severe weather could
   be pulled north, generally along/south the I-85 corridor and
   the propagating surface low & nearby triple point. Damaging
   winds are possible in stronger storms. A tornado could also
   occur, particularly if surface winds can back in this region.
   However, confidence remains low on this scenario, and the
   spatial/temporal window is relatively small. These threats
   remain conditional on thermodynamics/trajectory of the surface
   low. Nonetheless, we made some adjustments to the HWO and our
   severe threat graphic.

 - Expect upcoming forecast packages to include additional
   headlines which will include Freeze Watches/Warnings for
   upcoming cold temperatures, as well as a Wind Advisory for
   Friday night through Saturday afternoon.

40/Sizemore

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 352 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022/
Friday night through Wednesday.

Friday night through Saturday.

We've got a fairly wide variety of potential weather impacts Friday
night through Saturday, which makes for a complicated forecast
message overall. The main threat will likely be the potential for
winter weather across roughly the northern half of Central AL. Aside
from that, we'll likely have strong/gusty winds for much of the
evening Friday night through most of the day on Saturday. We'll also
have a conditional threat for some strong to severe storms generally
south of I-85 Friday night through the early morning hours on
Saturday. Then, for the remainder of Saturday, cold weather will be
the main story as a widespread freeze is likely.

 - Winter Weather Potential:

Widespread rain is expected to lift through Central AL Friday
evening as a surface low develops ahead of the approaching trough.
The low is expected to track through our area just before midnight
as cold front associated with the larger-scale trough pushes into
the region. Model guidance continues to show wrap-around moisture on
the backside of the departing surface low as it deepens to our east.
With the much colder air mass filtering in, this should allow for a
transition from rain to snow. There could be a brief mix of sleet in
there during the transition window across the northwestern counties,
but this shouldn't last for very long. Warm surface temperatures
should limit the ability for any significant accumulations, but
locations generally along and north of Hwy 82 in the northwestern
portions of Central AL, and locations north of I-20 in the northeast
counties could see minor accumulations, especially on elevated
surfaces. Portions of Marion and Winston Counties could see up to 1
inch of snow. To give broader context, probabilistic guidance has
roughly 50-60% chance of light accumulation across the northern half
of Central AL. The northern-most tier of counties are generally
showing a 30-40% chance of at least 1" of snow accumulation. Overall
timing of this transition will generally be after midnight Friday
night. By early Saturday morning, the any precip is expected to be
moving out of the area, ending any further accumulations. Latest
high-resolution guidance tries to have moisture linger through
roughly 10am Saturday morning, so I wouldn't be surprised to see
some flurries across the area during that time, but this should
have minimal impacts.

 - Wind Potential:

As the surface low deepens Friday night through Saturday, the
pressure gradient is expected to tighten across Central AL. This
will lead to increasing winds, generally after midnight Friday night
and will persist through most of the day on Saturday. We could
see sustained winds around 15-20 mph with gusts 30-40 mph.

 - Severe Potential:

The potential severe threat continues to look confined to locations
south and east of I-85 Friday evening through the very early hours
on Saturday. As the low pressure system develops, the stalled front
to our south tries to lift northward, which could lead to some
modest destabilization for our southeastern counties. However,
latest guidance continues to struggle to resolve whether that warm
front will even be able to lift into Pike or Barbour Counties, so
there's quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the severe potential.
There's more than enough shear in place with the proximity of the
surface low and a strengthening low level jet, but surface-based
instability looks to be minimal, even if the warm front lifts
northward. Therefore, while I can't completely rule out the
possibility for some strong to severe storms in the southeast, it's
highly conditional on whether we see any destabilization. If we do
see some instability work it's way northward, guidance suggests the
shear profiles become more unidirectional by that point, and
parallel to the frontal boundary, so damaging winds up to 60 mph
looks to be the main threat if anything is able to develop.

 - Cold temperatures:

Saturday doesn't exactly look like the most comfortable day for
outdoor activities. Temperatures will likely be falling through most
of the day.  Some locations in the northern counties may not get
above freezing. If we factor in the wind forecast, we could see wind
chills in the 20s for most of Central AL. Wind chills across the
northern counties could drop into the low teens at times. In
addition, as temperatures continue to fall through the day, we could
see some freezing of moisture on roadways as many locations drop
well below freezing by Saturday evening. This is always a difficult
variable to predict as we could see some drying of the moisture
given the dry air mass and gusty winds, but some moisture could
linger, especially in sheltered areas, leading to slippery
conditions.

Sunday through Wednesday.

Cold weather will continue Sunday through Monday. As the winds
become more light to calm Saturday night into Sunday morning under
the high pressure that builds in, we'll likely see very effective
radiational cooling. This should allow temperatures to drop into the
20s for most of Central AL by Sunday morning. Given the recent warm
conditions we've had, the quick return of freezing temperatures
could stress plants and animals, so make sure to take the necessary
precautions to protect pets and plants.

Another trough begins to dig into the Central Plains on Monday,
which will allow for an increase of a warmer southerly flow as we go
into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It will also bring
increased chances for rain and maybe some thunderstorms.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Low cigs currently cover a large portion of central Georgia. Easterly
flow will push the IFR cigs into east Alabama. The leading edge
of the lower cigs will come very close to the I-65 by 12z, and
included a few hours of IFR cigs at BHM/EET. The cigs will erode
from west to east after 15z, but likely stay close to IFR at
MGM/TOI thru the period. Sct showers will develop over southeast
Alabama by 12Z. The showers will spread northwest towards the I-20
corridor by 21z. A few tstms possible along and south of the I-85
corridor after 21z. A rapid downturn in the weather after 00z as
strong cold front approaches the area. Cigs will lower to IFR
category at all sites by 03Z with widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms, mainly south of I-20.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Easterly low level flow will develop over central Alabama overnight,
bringing an increase in low clouds and higher moisture values.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop on Friday
for areas mainly south of I-20. The clouds and rain will result in
higher than normal RH values, especially across east Alabama. A
strong cold front will bring widespread rain and gusty winds across
all of Central AL Friday night with the chance for wintry precipitation
north of I-20 through early Saturday morning. Cold temperatures
and gusty winds will persist through the day on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     41  68  30  37  17 /  10  20 100  20   0
Anniston    48  68  33  36  20 /  10  30 100  20   0
Birmingham  47  71  32  38  23 /   0  20  90  20   0
Tuscaloosa  45  71  33  41  23 /   0  20  90  10   0
Calera      48  70  34  39  23 /  10  30  90  20   0
Auburn      52  68  39  41  23 /  10  50 100  10   0
Montgomery  51  72  39  43  23 /  10  40  90  10   0
Troy        56  71  40  45  24 /  20  50  90  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 9 AM CST
Saturday for the following counties: Blount...Cherokee...
Etowah...Fayette...Jefferson...Lamar...Marion...Pickens...St.
Clair...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
246 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-120000-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
246 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible 7 PM Friday through 3 AM
Saturday, generally along and south of the Interstate 85 corridor.
The primary threat will be damaging winds up to 60 mph, but a tornado
is also possible.

Rain will likely become mixed with or change over to snow Friday
night into Saturday morning. Light accumulations on grassy or
elevated surfaces are possible, mainly north of Interstate 20. Higher
totals, up to two inches, are possible across far northwest portions
of Central Alabama.

Breezy conditions are expected Friday night and Saturday. Northwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph, will be possible
across all of Central Alabama.

Temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing across portions of
Central Alabama Friday night, all of Central Alabama Saturday night,
and portions of Central Alabama Sunday night. Residents should take
action to protect vulnerable populations, outdoor pets, and
sensitive vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
Friday night.