Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
113 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

.UPDATE...
Midday Update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 111 PM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022/

Through Monday.

An area of lower heights high aloft over the Mid South region
will continue to move southwest then west tonight and tomorrow.
Mid- level ridging has weakened in response and convection has
been developing across parts of our western counties at midday.
850 mb temperatures are warmer compared to yesterday and this
difference appears to be more noticable across the east and
southeast counties, where cumulus development has been more
restrained at this time.

The wet microburst risk today is in the lower end of the moderate
range, largely due to strong instability with just enough dry air
from 850 to 600 mb to support a few instances of strong winds.

Today.

Expect partly cloudy skies today with showers and thunderstorms
developing and becoming scattered to numerous through the
afternoon hours. Winds will be from the south 4-8 mph. Highs will
range from near 90 far east to the mid 90s southwest.

Tonight.

Expect showers and a few thunderstorms to linger through late
evening, followed by decreasing activity overnight. Some patchy
fog will be possible before daybreak near water bodies. There will
be potential for some low clouds across the east and northeastern
areas during this time frame as well. Winds will be light from
the southeast 2-4 mph. Lows will range from near 70 far east to
the mid 70s west and central.

Monday.

Weak ridging in the mid levels attempts to rebuild to our
southeast on Monday, while surface high pressure remains to our
east centered over the Carolinas. Clouds will again develop
through the mid to late morning hours with showers and some
thunderstorms forming toward midday and further developing through
the afternoon hours. Winds will be from the southeast at 4-8 mph.
Highs will range from the upper 80s in the higher elevations far
east to the lower 90s elsewhere.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0310 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022/

Tuesday through Saturday.

An area of broad weakness or troughing at 500 mb will persist
across the southeastern CONUS on Tuesday, leading to an above
normal probabilities for showers and thunderstorms. The influence
of a mid-latitude trough will be noticed by Wednesday across the
northern parts of Alabama, where rain chances are approaching 80
percent. Farther south, the inland advancement of seabreeze
convection and daytime heating should contribute to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. A weak front appears likely to progress
southward on Thursday and provide enhanced rain chances to most
of the forecast area. The upper-level pattern may amplify enough
for the front and highest rain chances to continue moving
southward into southern Alabama Friday and Saturday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered cumulus will continue to develop and build through the
afternoon hours with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
across much of the area. Have included TEMPO groups at most sites
between 21 and 00z to capture best potential time frame, though
TCL may need to be pushed up given activity developing to the
south of that site at this writing. Overnight, showers and a few
storms will diminish. Potential for some patchy fog near water
bodies and there will be low stratus potential across the east and
northeast portions of the area. Cumulus will again develop through
Monday morning with scattered showers and some thunderstorms
developing toward the end of this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High moisture content will remain in place across the region,
providing fuel for daily afternoon and evening showers and storms.
20ft winds will remain near or below 6kts, mainly from the
southeast. Min RH values above 50 percent each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  92  70  89  69 /  30  60  30  70  30
Anniston    71  91  70  89  70 /  40  70  30  70  30
Birmingham  73  92  72  89  72 /  30  60  30  70  30
Tuscaloosa  74  92  73  89  72 /  40  60  30  70  30
Calera      72  90  72  89  72 /  40  60  30  70  30
Auburn      71  89  70  88  70 /  40  70  30  60  20
Montgomery  72  92  72  93  72 /  40  70  30  70  20
Troy        72  91  71  91  71 /  40  70  20  70  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
301 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-081115-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
301 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1152 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

ALZ011-071715-
Marion AL-
1152 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Marion
County through 1215 PM CDT...

At 1152 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Buttahatchee, or 10 miles southwest of Haleyville. This storm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Buttahatchee, Brinn, Piney Grove and Pearces Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 8763 3406 8764 3407 8784 3420 8783
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 046DEG 2KT 3412 8776

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

86/Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1250 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

ALZ014-071830-
Winston AL-
1250 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Winston
County through 130 PM CDT...

At 1250 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Needmore, or near Haleyville. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Haleyville, Double Springs, Houston Recreational Area, Needmore,
Moreland, Winston Free State Barn, Ashridge, Smith Lake, Natural
Bridge, Weiss, Posey Field Airport, Pebble, Delmar, Sipsey River Rec
Area and Grayson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8728 3412 8734 3409 8764 3431 8763
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 267DEG 3KT 3427 8755

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

86/Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1252 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

ALZ032-071815-
Hale AL-
1252 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Hale County
through 115 PM CDT...

At 1251 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greensboro. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Sawyerville, Greensboro Municipal Airport, Wateroak and
Harper Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 8772 3288 8743 3283 8744 3283 8747
      3274 8747 3266 8750 3265 8753 3261 8753
      3265 8774 3266 8775 3265 8777
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 281DEG 2KT 3276 8758

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

86/Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
102 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

ALZ013-015-071830-
Fayette AL-Walker AL-
102 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Walker
and northeastern Fayette Counties through 130 PM CDT...

At 102 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kansas, or near Carbon Hill. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carbon Hill, Glen Allen, Kansas, Bazemore and Fowlers Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3373 8772 3391 8773 3391 8746 3372 8746
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 267DEG 3KT 3381 8758

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

86/Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
131 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

ALZ014-071915-
Winston AL-
131 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Winston County
through 215 PM CDT...

At 131 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Moreland, or 12 miles northwest of Arley, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Arley, Double Springs, Addison, Houston Recreational Area, Nesmith,
Smith Lake, Brushy Lake, Helicon, Inmanfield, Sardis, Corinth Rec
Area, Falls City, Moreland, Winston Free State Barn, Houston, Mill
Branch, Maple Branch, Hullett Branch, Winston County Airport and Cane
Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8711 3399 8711 3399 8715 3400 8717
      3400 8719 3399 8720 3414 8754 3430 8740
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 277DEG 19KT 3425 8730

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

86/Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
149 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

ALZ011-071930-
Marion AL-
149 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Marion
County through 230 PM CDT...

At 149 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brilliant, or near Winfield, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Winfield, Guin, Brilliant, Glen Allen, Gu-
Win, Twin, Tucker and Texas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8764 3392 8764 3391 8774 3392 8791
      3403 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 160DEG 8KT 3398 8777

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

86/Martin