Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
248 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 109 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022/

Through Sunday.

Elongated mid-level ridging extends from over the North Carolina
Coastline southwest to over the Wiregrass Region of Southeast
Alabama. A weakness aloft exists over portions of the Ohio River
Valley into the Mid South Region while another area of ridging
aloft was analyzed over the Central Plains. Surface high pressure
was centered over North-Central North Carolina.

The 12z BMX sounding data shows temperatures aloft have cooled
slightly, resulting in a 500 mb temperature 1 C lower than
yesterday with a 2 C decrease in 850 mb temperatures. This is
resulting in steeper lapse rates and we are experiencing deeper
convection with lightning accompanying most of the activity
currently. The wet microburst risk is moderate today due to strong
instability reflective with the steeper lapse rates along with
some drier air, especially over the south-central portions of the
forecast area.

Today.

Contracted ridging aloft will persist just to the southeast of
the area while a low-level flow from the southeast will continue
to maintain a moist low-level environment. Steepened lapse rates
will result in more vigorous convection with higher potential for
lightning today. The activity will gradually move to the west and
northwest with time. Winds will be from the southeast at 4-8 mph.
Highs will range from near 90 far east to the mid 90s south and
west.

Tonight.

High aloft, lower heights will migrate from over the Ohio River
Valley southwest to over the Mid South region overnight. The mid
levels will respond accordingly with a weakness developing to our
north over the Tennessee Valley region. Scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms will continue through the evening, then
gradually dissipate through the night. Skies will range from
mostly clear west to more lingering clouds across the east. There
is potential for some low stratus developing late with some patchy
fog possible before daybreak near rivers and water bodies. Winds
will be light from the east-southeast overnight. Lows will range
from near 70 northeast to the mid 70s toward the southwest.

Sunday.

Low heights high aloft will remain to our northwest on Sunday,
but will result in weakening mid-level ridging in the mid levels.
This will support a higher chance for shower and thunderstorm
activity. Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms
developing from mid to late morning and expanding in coverage
through the afternoon. Winds will be from the southeast at 4-8
mph. Highs will range from the upper 80s in the higher elevations
east to readings in the lower 90s west.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0243 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022/

No significant updates to the extended forecast as new model runs
are not showing much change.

58/rose

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 0342 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022/

Monday through Friday.

Little in the way of suppressive ridging is expected over the
region for the upcoming week, leading to a period of above average
rain chances. A weak inverted trough at 500 mb moving will move
westward across the region Monday and Tuesday, aiding in increased
coverage of showers and storms.

The influence of a mid-latitude trough may be felt by Wednesday
across the northern parts of Alabama, where the highest rain
chances are currently expected. The associated front appears
likely to progress southward on Thursday and provide enhanced rain
chances to a larger portion of our forecast area. The upper-level
pattern may amplify enough for the front to continue moving
southward into southern Alabama Friday, taking the highest rain
chances with it.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Thunderstorms are ongoing near ANB/BHM/EET/TCL. Expect activity
to longer through 18z close to BHM/EET/TCL and this will be
included through 19z with the start of this forecast cycle.
Scattered showers with at least isolated thunderstorms will
continue to develop and move north to northwest with time.

Convective activity will gradually subside through the evening
hours followed by fair skies west with more lingering clouds east.
Some low stratus may develop east toward sunrise with potential
for some patchy fog near rivers and water bodies before sunrise.
Showers and storms will develop through the mid to late morning
hours Sunday with greatest chances initially east and central,
expanding west with time.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High moisture content will remain in place across the region,
providing fuel for daily afternoon and evening showers and storms.
20ft winds will remain near or below 6kts, mainly from the
southeast. Min RH values above 50 percent each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  71  89  70 /  40  60  30  60  30
Anniston    72  90  72  88  70 /  40  60  30  60  30
Birmingham  73  91  73  91  72 /  40  60  30  60  30
Tuscaloosa  75  93  74  91  73 /  30  60  20  60  30
Calera      73  90  73  90  72 /  40  60  30  60  30
Auburn      72  89  72  88  70 /  40  60  30  60  20
Montgomery  73  92  74  93  73 /  40  60  30  60  20
Troy        72  91  72  91  71 /  40  60  30  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
738 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-071545-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
738 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
352 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

ALZ011-013-015-062115-
Fayette AL-Walker AL-Marion AL-
352 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Walker,
southeastern Marion and northeastern Fayette Counties through 415 PM
CDT...

At 351 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Eldridge, or near Carbon Hill. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carbon Hill, Glen Allen, Kansas, Eldridge, Bazemore and Texas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3381 8748 3381 8770 3397 8775 3400 8753
      3400 8752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 177DEG 3KT 3388 8760

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

32/Davis