Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
340 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0158 PM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022/

Through Tuesday.

Mid-level ridging persists to our southeast and over West Texas
into Arizona while longwave troughing persists over the Great
Lakes south to over the Ohio River Valley region. A weak front
remains to the north of the area with surface high pressure
centered over our far southeast counties.

Today.

Expect the longwave trough to move further east over the Northern
and Central Appalachians while ridging persists across the
Southwest and over much of Florida. Surface high pressure will
remain centered just to the southeast of the forecast area. A
shortwave disturbance is progged to move southeast over the
Tennessee Valley region and this will continue to support activity
across the northern and northeast areas today.

Look for most of the cloud cover across the north, then expanding
across the south and the western areas this afternoon. Mainly
shower activity will continue to move east across the northern
portion of the forecast area while showers and thunderstorms will
advance northeast from Interior Southwest Alabama into our
Southwest and South-Central Counties through mid afternoon. Winds
will be from the west at 5-10 mph. Highs will range from the lower
80s far north to the mid 90s southwest.

Tonight.

The shortwave disturbance to our north will move over our
northern and northeast counties tonight, resulting in continued
activity across the northern and northeast areas. Additionally,
the ongoing activity pushing north and northeast from the
southwest will continue to advance north and northeast with time.
Expect the intensity and coverage to decrease with time overnight.
Winds will be light and variable. Lows will range from around 70
north and northeast to the lower 70s elsewhere.

Tuesday.

Most modeling depicts another shortwave moving over the area
during the day Tuesday. As a result, the expectation is for clouds
to be on the increase during the morning hours with increasing
chances for scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms. The
best potential appears to be across the southwest half of the
area. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph. Highs will be in
the lower 90s across the area.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0329 PM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022/

Did not need many changes to the extended this afternoon, as model
guidance continues to show a dominant ridge across the area for
much of the forecast period.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 0308 AM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022/

Wednesday through Sunday.

Broad ridging will persist through the remainder of the week and
into the weekend for much of the Southeastern CONUS. We really don't
see much of a change in our airmass, which means we'll likely see
fairly consistent rain/thunderstorm chances each day, mainly
diurnally driven. Some guidance tries to slide a trough through well
to our north, which could send an impulse southward into our area by
the end of the week, but there's still some question on how far
south it reaches before stalling out. Either way, there will likely
be at least scattered thunderstorms during the afternoons and early
evenings through the weekend.

Otherwise, the second half of the week is expected to be hot and
humid with high temps in the low 90s and heat indices topping out
between 100-104 each afternoon.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered showers with some thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon across the area. The potential for thunder is too
low to include at any terminal but the potential will exist.
Overnight, lingering showers will decrease in coverage with best
potential across the north-central areas. Scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms will develop through the mid to late
morning hours on Tuesday with best chances across the west and
central areas.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected the next
couple of days, with areawide activity Tuesday and generally
across the south on Wednesday. 20ft winds remain out of the west
Tuesday then become southerly, at less than 10mph. Min RHs will
be near or above 50% for most of the area through the next few
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  91  70  90  70 /  20  60  20  30  20
Anniston    70  90  70  90  71 /  20  60  20  40  20
Birmingham  73  91  72  91  72 /  20  70  20  40  20
Tuscaloosa  73  93  72  91  72 /  20  70  20  40  10
Calera      72  90  72  90  72 /  20  70  20  40  20
Auburn      72  89  71  89  71 /  20  60  20  50  30
Montgomery  73  92  73  92  73 /  30  70  20  60  20
Troy        72  92  72  91  71 /  30  70  20  70  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&