Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
359 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1154 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022/

High pressure will remain over the southeastern US...with easterly
low and mid level flow bringing plenty of warm and moist air to
the state. This afternoon could see diurnally driven thunderstorms
with the greatest chances in the southeastern half of the state
where instability is a bit stronger. PW values are almost max for
this time of year...and winds are weak throughout the low and mid
levels. Instability is between 3500 and 4500 J/kg and lapse rates
are steep. Strong storms are expected with a few of those storms
possibly becoming severe if they can get enough forcing to tap
into that instability. Main threats are damaging winds up to 60
mph and quarter size hail. With the amount of moisture and light
winds...would expect flooding to be a threat as well...especially
in any storms that move slowly or train over the same areas.

Convection is expected to linger into the evening and early
night...when an MCS type feature is shown by Models to make its
way through the southern half of the state. This will keep chance
precip in for the southeastern third of the area where there is
higher confidence for this anticipated feature. Instabilities will
similar to the afternoon Wednesday with high PW values again. The
only slight difference is that winds in the midlevels will be
slightly stronger. This will allow for a somewhat lower flooding
threat with activity expected to move faster. Would expect strong
storms with this MCS...though the severe threat should remain
isolated.

Thursday morning should see a break with no showers or
thunderstorms expected until the afternoon when diurnally driven
convection develops. The same setup remains with CAPE values
around 4000 J/kg...light wind profiles...and PW values max for
this time of year. A few of the thunderstorms could be strong to
severe with damaging downburst winds and quarter size hail as the
main threat.

High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 90s...with
heat indices up to 106 or 107 in many places this afternoon.
Tonight...low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday...high temperatures will be in the upper 90s...and with
the amount of moisture in the air...heat indices will again be in
the triple digits. A Heat Advisory will remain for today through
tomorrow evening.

24

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022/

No major changes were made to the extended forecast. Except for
Friday's low pops, ridging with rain free and hot conditions will
continue to rule. Heat indices are higher for Friday which might
suggest a heat warning instead of an advisory, but if rain chances
do increase any with the front that may help some with these
readings, but likely not above a large enough area to make a
difference.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 345 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022/
Friday through Tuesday.

A prominent 500 mb ridge will retrograde to the Plains on Friday as
trough deepens over the Northeast CONUS. Temperatures of 95 to 100
degrees and dewpoints in the 70s, will support strong to extreme
instability with SBCAPE of 4500-6000 J/kg. A combination of height
falls, a surface trough extending westward from the Carolinas, and a
cold front moving in from the north, should support at least very
isolated popcorn convection Friday afternoon. To our north in the
Tennessee Valley, there is a slightly stronger signal for convection
across model guidance within a zone of weak surface convergence. If
this activity develops, the available instability will be supportive
of organization and upscale growth into a southward moving cluster
or MCS Friday afternoon and evening. POPs have been nudged upward to
account for this potential.

Northerly flow will advect a drier and somewhat cooler airmass
southward on Saturday as a front moves through. Temperatures within
near the surface trough across our southern counties may top out
near 100 degrees. Though temperatures are still expected to reach
the 90s on Sunday, the full effects of this drier airmass should be
felt as dewpoints drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s. The 500 mb
ridge is expected to shift from the Plains back to the eastern CONUS
on Monday and Tuesday. Only slow moistening is expected as residual
drier continental air circulates around the ridge. However,
temperatures are expected to trend upward into the upper 90s by
Tuesday. This could be the beginning of a widespread major heatwave
with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees as we look beyond Tuesday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Diurnally driven convection will develop through the late
afternoon and remain through the early night. An MCS feature is
expected to move through in the late evening as well. VFR
conditions are expected unless a thunderstorm moves over a TAF
site...where MVFR conditions will be likely. Have included a VCSH
for now due to low confidence in exact coverage and timing of
activity this afternoon. Tonight...mention for MVFR conditions
will mainly be at KMGM and KTOI...the two sites that the predicted
MCS has the greatest chance of impacting.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions persist today with light and variable 20
ft winds. A Heat Advisory remains in effect. Some showers and
thunderstorms are expected again by late afternoon. Some could be
strong to severe. Thereafter, little relief is expected with
ongoing excessive heat conditions this week. This could continue
into Friday, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday
and Friday afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  96  73  99  72 /  40  30  10  20  20
Anniston    72  96  75  96  73 /  50  30  10  20  20
Birmingham  74  97  77  99  76 /  30  30  10  20  20
Tuscaloosa  75  98  76  99  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
Calera      74  95  77  97  76 /  40  30  20  20  30
Auburn      73  96  75  96  75 /  60  30  20  20  30
Montgomery  75  98  77 100  76 /  50  30  20  20  30
Troy        72  97  75  99  74 /  60  30  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
359 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-161200-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
359 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Excessive heat conditions will continue across Central Alabama today.
Heat indices could rise up to 109 degrees at times.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Central Alabama
from 2 PM to 10 PM. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hot and humid conditions will continue across Central Alabama through
Saturday. This combination will cause heat indices to reach 105
degrees or higher each afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may needed this
afternoon and evening.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
701 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

ALZ029-038-160045-
Randolph AL-Chambers AL-
701 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Randolph and
central Chambers Counties through 745 PM CDT...

At 701 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Centralhatchee to near Lagrange. Movement
was southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Valley, Lanett, Roanoke, Wedowee, Stroud, La Fayette, Lakeview, Five
Points, Cusseta, Post Oak Forks, Denson, River View, Amity Park,
Standing Rock, Welch, Buffalo, Chambers County Lake, Fredonia, Veasey
Creek Park and Huguley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3274 8521 3275 8528 3273 8529 3273 8533
      3330 8556 3340 8529 3286 8519 3285 8516
      3281 8517 3277 8512 3277 8513
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 059DEG 19KT 3335 8519 3297 8504

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

89^GSatterwhite

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
705 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             1 WNW ENSLEY            33.51N 86.90W
06/15/2022  E0.70 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL IN ENSLEY.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
712 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

ALZ032-160045-
Hale AL-
712 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Hale
County through 745 PM CDT...

At 711 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Moundville to near Mertz. Movement was
northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Moundville, Elliots Creek, Mound State Park, Wateroak, Moundville
Airport and Phipps.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3299 8773 3299 8771 3301 8771 3301 8757
      3294 8742 3288 8742 3283 8745 3297 8774
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 214DEG 6KT 3298 8765 3291 8748

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

75 Linhares

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
716 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

ALZ045-047-048-160100-
Lee AL-Macon AL-Russell AL-
716 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Lee,
eastern Macon and northwestern Russell Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 716 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Griffen Mill, or 13 miles southwest of Smiths, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Beauregard, Uchee, Society Hill, Griffen Mill, Chewacla State
Park, Marvyn and Warriorstand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3256 8521 3234 8518 3229 8555 3256 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 084DEG 17KT 3246 8529

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

89^GSatterwhite