Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
425 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0420 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022/

Today through Thursday.

This AM in the upper levels shortwave feature is moving through the
WNW flow across C AL with nocturnal showers and thunderstorms
occurring across mainly the N half of the area. This feature will
continue EWD this morning into the afternoon. We should see a lull
and then another shortwave will go across with more convection for
this afternoon into tonight. At the surface, a previous boundary
will weaken and give way to a front to push into the area tonight
from the NW. We should have enough NW flow to push it through much
of the area, but the front may be a little slower with the southerly
progress for the SRN half of the area for Thursday. Will keep some
low pops in for Thursday to account for it slowing down.

Severe messaging remains similar for today for the area. The
exception will be for the "timing". With multiple waves, a severe
threat will be present today into this evening with enough forcing
and instability with the shortwaves. Each area will not have the
threat the whole time with two waves and a break in between, but
confusion sets in trying to time each one separately for messaging.
Strong to severe winds, hail and heavy rain at times will be the
threats. The break in between will help with any flooding threats.
Will forgo a flood watch at this time, but locally heavy rain may
cause problems in spots especially in urban areas.

08

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022/

Friday and Saturday.

In the ever changing round of weather, looks like Friday is a little
better in terms of severe weather. With the boundary sliding south
of our area on Thursday night, it will be tough to get it to slide
back north before the next disturbance moves in. Still see a round
of strong to severe storms, especially in our southwest. Will re-
orient the risk on Friday, but will stay with a marginal/slight risk
for now, with the possibility of only needing a marginal as we draw
closer. Messaging wise though still looking at hail and wind the
bigger threats. The front/boundary will be exiting to our south on
Saturday with rain chances shifting to the south. Could be a
stronger storm Saturday afternoon in the far southeast, right now
chances are too low for any mention of severe storms at this time
for Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday.

Looking at a period of dry weather coming up for the second half of
the weekend and into the early part of the next week. Could sneak
out a few isolated showers in the far south on Tuesday as moisture
begins to return the area.

The bigger issue will be the warmth that will show up. While typical
for the summer, we will see several days of 94 to 97 degree weather
beginning Monday. With the rainfall we have had there will be some
ground moisture that could increase heat indices as well. Right now
we remain below heat advisory criteria as some differences in the
models are to be accounted for. The current forecast, while in range
of the model blends, is on the higher side of the range. With that
said the range is only a degree or two, so confidence in seeing some
mid to upper 90s is growing. Will continue to fine tune the forecast
over the next few days and see if any heat products will be needed.
For now though make plans if you will be outdoors for a prolonged
period next week to stay hydrated.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across C AL with NW flow shortwave activity. Some MVFR cig/vsbys
will be possible this morning with the first wave activity
especially NE areas near BHM/ASN/ANB. This afternoon and evening
convection could spread further S affecting more of the TAFs with
a second round of storms.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected through
Thursday, as shortwaves interact with a frontal boundary.
Minimum afternoon RH values will be above 40 percent each day. 20ft
winds will be from the southwest to west at 5-10mph through today
and then become northwesterly Thursday. Rain returns on Friday and
exits again by Saturday night. Dry conditions once again on Sunday
with warmer temperatures in by next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  66  86  60  85 /  80  80  10   0  50
Anniston    87  69  86  63  86 /  70  80  20   0  40
Birmingham  88  70  88  65  87 /  80  50  10   0  50
Tuscaloosa  91  70  89  66  87 /  50  20  20   0  50
Calera      89  72  88  68  87 /  40  40  20   0  50
Auburn      88  71  88  68  88 /  40  50  20   0  40
Montgomery  93  74  93  70  92 /  20  40  20  10  40
Troy        93  72  92  69  92 /  20  20  40  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
443 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-091245-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
443 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe storms may occur today into this evening across
Central Alabama. Multiple waves of convection are expected with
breaks in between. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main
threats. Heavy rainfall may also lead to localized flooding in urban
and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another system is expected to move into the area Friday afternoon
through Friday night. This could lead to severe storms capable of
producing damaging winds and large hail, mainly across the southwest
half of Central Alabama.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today into this evening and again on Friday.

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
256 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

ALZ025-035-080830-
Chilton AL-Shelby AL-
256 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Chilton and southern Shelby Counties through 330 AM CDT...

At 255 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shelby County Airport, or near Alabaster, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Alabaster, Pelham, Helena, Calera, Montevallo, Columbiana, Jemison,
Thorsby, Wilton, American Village, Maylene, University Of Montevallo,
Shelby County Airport, Shelby, Minooka Park, Alabama 4H Center,
Highway 145 and CR 46, Camp Branch, Siluria and Alabaster Veterans
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3329 8683 3320 8649 3317 8650 3317 8649
      3290 8669 3302 8688 3305 8688 3305 8690
      3306 8690 3306 8693 3308 8694 3308 8695
      3310 8695 3310 8697 3313 8697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0755Z 308DEG 20KT 3318 8681

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
314 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

ALZ013-015-080900-
Fayette AL-Walker AL-
314 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Walker and
east central Fayette Counties through 400 AM CDT...

At 314 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oakman, or 10 miles southwest of Jasper, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Sumiton, Cordova, Dora, Parrish, Oakman, Sipsey, Gorgas Steam
Plant, Rocky Hollow, Burnwell, Beloit, Gorgas, Lynns Park,
Goodsprings, Barney, West Corona, Cedrum Area, Holly Grove, The Wye
and Tutwiler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3380 8700 3363 8711 3363 8714 3361 8715
      3361 8718 3360 8718 3360 8719 3357 8720
      3355 8719 3354 8721 3358 8732 3359 8732
      3359 8734 3367 8755 3390 8743
TIME...MOT...LOC 0814Z 291DEG 20KT 3375 8740

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
315 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

ALZ023-034-080900-
Bibb AL-Tuscaloosa AL-
315 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Tuscaloosa and northwestern Bibb Counties through 400 AM CDT...

At 315 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Coaling, or 7 miles southeast of Holt, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Centreville, Brookwood, Coaling, Vance, Woodstock, West Blocton, Lake
Wildwood, Mercedes Benz Of Alabama, North Bibb, Fleetwood, East
Brookwood, Camp Horne B.S.A., Green Pond, Caffee Junction, Hebron, I
20 Rest Area Near Tuscaloosa and Cedar Cove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3331 8739 3323 8703 3321 8703 3321 8702
      3319 8702 3319 8703 3317 8702 3297 8711
      3312 8746
TIME...MOT...LOC 0815Z 291DEG 20KT 3317 8737

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
331 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

ALZ023-034-080900-
Bibb AL-Tuscaloosa AL-
331 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Tuscaloosa and central Bibb Counties through 400 AM CDT...

At 331 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coaling, or 11 miles southeast of Holt, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brent, Centreville, Brookwood, Coaling, Vance, West Blocton, Lake
Wildwood, West Centreville, Mercedes Benz Of Alabama, Eoline, North
Bibb, Marvel, Hagler, Bibb County Airport, Pearson, Hebron, Harmon, I
20 Rest Area Near Tuscaloosa and Cedar Cove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3323 8736 3315 8697 3311 8697 3289 8707
      3306 8744
TIME...MOT...LOC 0831Z 291DEG 14KT 3313 8733

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
356 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

ALZ015-024-080930-
Walker AL-Jefferson AL-
356 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Walker
and central Jefferson Counties through 430 AM CDT...

At 356 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
West Jefferson, or 8 miles south of Dora, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Western Birmingham, Bessemer, Hueytown, Gardendale, Fairfield,
Fultondale, Sumiton, Dora, Pleasant Grove, Tarrant, Midfield,
Adamsville, Brighton, Lipscomb, Graysville, Sylvan Springs,
Brookside, Mulga, Maytown and West Jefferson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3354 8727 3377 8703 3363 8675 3335 8700
TIME...MOT...LOC 0856Z 309DEG 13KT 3360 8709

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
455 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

ALZ034-035-081030-
Chilton AL-Bibb AL-
455 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Chilton
and southeastern Bibb Counties through 530 AM CDT...

At 454 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Centreville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Centreville, Maplesville, Lawley, Talladega National Forest, Ashby,
Chilton County Motor Sports Park, Brierfield Ironworks Park,
Randolph, Trio, Six Mile and Bibb County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3307 8710 3304 8676 3279 8683 3289 8713
TIME...MOT...LOC 0954Z 284DEG 9KT 3297 8705

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen