Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
345 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0153 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/

Today through Tonight.

A progressive line of thunderstorms has begun to take shape gaining
intensity over Louisiana and quickly moving east at 45 to 50 mph.
There will be several more hours before these storms begin to
threaten our western counties, but non-thunderstorm gradient winds
have already been increasing throughout the morning with gusts of 40-
45 mph measured at observation sites across Central Mississippi. A
low-level jet of 50 kts was measured on the 12Z BMX RAOB this
morning. Although slightly lower 850mb winds were measured on the
18Z BMX RAOB, we will see these low-level winds begin increasing
again as the shortwave moves east. It still appears that boundary
layer mixing may bring some of these higher winds to the surface
as we continue through the afternoon with gusts of 40 to 50 mph
possible. The Wind Advisory will remain in effect for the entire
area through tonight. Stronger portions of the low-level jet will
pass across our northwest counties where some locally higher
gusts above 50 mph may occur. The High Wind Warning will continue
for those areas through the evening. These windy conditions will
be capable of causing sporadic tree fall and power outages across
any portions of the area, but increasingly probable in higher
elevation areas as well as areas within the High Wind Warning.

The warm sector is slowly establishing, but our dewpoints still have
some work to do. Low 60s are present across southwest Central AL
with a gradient to upper 40s in the northeast while dewpoints have
risen into the mid 60s in western Mississippi ahead of the line.
Dewpoints should continue to slowly rise as strong, moist southerly
flow provides a narrow corridor of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the
line. Although instability is expected to remain marginal, when
combined with abundant wind energy characterized by a ~70kt LLJ and
60-70kts of progged eff. shear, it still appears likely that a
significant primary threat of strong and damaging straight line
winds will accompany the QLCS as it enters west Alabama late this
afternoon/early evening. Winds will be especially maximized near
line-embedded bowing segments where convective gusts up to 80 mph
may occur. Additionally, large curved hodographs reflect eff. SRH of
400-450 m2/s2 which will surely lead to areas of rotation within
the line. Given the limited range of instability, the ability for
an updraft to sustain itself amongst such overpowering wind shear
is still in question, but certainly appears that enough support
will be in place for a risk of line embedded tornadoes. Storms
will reach the MS/AL stateline as early as 5-6 PM then continue to
quickly move east thereafter. The quick storm motions will limit
the flood threat, and latest QPF has trended downwards.
Nonetheless, accumulations of 1.5 to 2 inches will support an
isolated flooding threat given the high water table caused by
recent heavier rain events. As the line moves east this evening,
instability will wane which should help to temper the intensity of
storms, but some risk of damaging winds will continue for the
eastern portions of Central AL until the line exits the area
around 6-7 AM tomorrow morning.

Thursday.

Following the frontal passage, PoPs drop sharply as CAA takes hold
and higher winds will subside. Expect temperatures to range from the
mid 60s northwest to upper 70s southeast with cloud cover decreasing
throughout the day. High pressure will begin building into the
ArkLaTex and this will set up another period of generally calm
conditions heading into the end of the week.

86

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0331 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/

For the extended forecast, models have trended drier over the
weekend and removed rain chances for most of the area. Next chance
of thunderstorms arrives in the Monday-Tuesday time frame.
Adjusted rain chances based on timing in recent model solutions,
but too early for details on severe potential.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 0349 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/

Friday through Tuesday

Look for zonal flow to return on Friday on the backside of the
stalled front to our south. A shortwave will slide north of the
area by Saturday morning. Models are a little more in agreement
that there will be enough moisture for a least a few showers
areawide through Saturday morning, then clearing to the east. The
one difference from yesterday is the models are also focusing on
the southern edge, where moisture may rise from along the frontal
zone. Either way the bulk of the rain will stay south. A return to
dry air again on Sunday with the next system working late Monday
and through Tuesday. Will need to keep an eye on this system as we
draw closer and showers and storms will be likely and rainfall
totals could be quite high.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Windy conditions will continue through much of this TAF period as a
dynamic system moves into the Lower MS Valley and across Central AL
later this evening through early tomorrow morning. Expect southerly
sfc wind gusts up to 40-45 kts this afternoon with sustained
winds around 15-20 kts. A line of storms will move west to east
across the area tonight affecting each TAF site for roughly 3 to 4
hours. TEMPOs for TSRA will cover this activity. Low ceilings
will develop tomorrow morning behind the cold frontal passage, but
ceilings should begin rising again towards the end of this TAF
period as dry air reenters the region.

86

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A line of strong to severe storms moves across Central Alabama
tonight, bringing widespread rainfall and strong winds to the
area. Rain will be exiting the area tomorrow morning. Ceilings
below 2kft will be possible across portions of the area Thursday
morning. 20ft winds will become westerly Thursday, at 8-12 mph
through the day. 20ft winds become northwesterly by Friday, with
speeds decreasing to 5-8mph. Minimum RH values will be in the
38-45 percent range Thursday, and 28-38 percent range on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  70  40  66  38 / 100  10   0   0   0
Anniston    58  72  43  67  41 /  90  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  57  69  43  67  44 / 100  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  55  69  43  69  44 / 100   0   0   0   0
Calera      59  71  45  69  45 / 100  10   0   0   0
Auburn      62  75  48  70  46 / 100  40   0   0   0
Montgomery  62  75  47  73  45 / 100  10   0   0   0
Troy        63  78  49  73  47 / 100  30   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Autauga...Bibb...Blount...Chilton...Dallas...Greene...
Hale...Jefferson...Lowndes...Marengo...Perry...Shelby...St.
Clair...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Barbour...Bullock...Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...
Clay...Cleburne...Coosa...Elmore...Etowah...Lee...Macon...
Montgomery...Pike...Randolph...Russell...Talladega...Tallapoosa.

High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Fayette...Lamar...Marion...Pickens...Winston.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
counties: Fayette...Lamar...Marion...Pickens...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
411 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-311215-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
411 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon and
overnight across all of Central Alabama. Primary threats include
damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph, tornadoes, and hail up to
quarter size.

Non thunderstorm wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible through
tonight across all of Central Alabama. Locally higher gusts are also
possible. Wind gusts could lead to fallen trees or tree limbs
resulting in property damage or power outages.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible this evening and
overnight which could lead to flash flooding in low lying or poor
drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
this afternoon through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SW BIRMINGHAM FAIRGRO 33.49N 86.88W
03/30/2022                   JEFFERSON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES
            DOWNED DUE TO GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE
            COUNTY.

&&

GMS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>