Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
238 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 111 PM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022/

Through Monday.

An area of lower heights high aloft over the Mid South region
will continue to move southwest then west tonight and tomorrow.
Mid- level ridging has weakened in response and convection has
been developing across parts of our western counties at midday.
850 mb temperatures are warmer compared to yesterday and this
difference appears to be more noticable across the east and
southeast counties, where cumulus development has been more
restrained at this time.

The wet microburst risk today is in the lower end of the moderate
range, largely due to strong instability with just enough dry air
from 850 to 600 mb to support a few instances of strong winds.

Today.

Expect partly cloudy skies today with showers and thunderstorms
developing and becoming scattered to numerous through the
afternoon hours. Winds will be from the south 4-8 mph. Highs will
range from near 90 far east to the mid 90s southwest.

Tonight.

Expect showers and a few thunderstorms to linger through late
evening, followed by decreasing activity overnight. Some patchy
fog will be possible before daybreak near water bodies. There will
be potential for some low clouds across the east and northeastern
areas during this time frame as well. Winds will be light from
the southeast 2-4 mph. Lows will range from near 70 far east to
the mid 70s west and central.

Monday.

Weak ridging in the mid levels attempts to rebuild to our
southeast on Monday, while surface high pressure remains to our
east centered over the Carolinas. Clouds will again develop
through the mid to late morning hours with showers and some
thunderstorms forming toward midday and further developing through
the afternoon hours. Winds will be from the southeast at 4-8 mph.
Highs will range from the upper 80s in the higher elevations far
east to the lower 90s elsewhere.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0221 PM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022/

Tuesday through Saturday.

No significant changes to extended forecast. Even though rain
chances will be elevated this coming week, this type of weather
pattern is not likely to result in 60-70 percent chances for four
days in a row. The models have been trended drier for Tuesday and
possibly Wednesday, especially across the southeast counties, and
lowered rain chances in these areas.

58/rose

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 0310 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022/

Tuesday through Saturday.

An area of broad weakness or troughing at 500 mb will persist
across the southeastern CONUS on Tuesday, leading to an above
normal probabilities for showers and thunderstorms. The influence
of a mid-latitude trough will be noticed by Wednesday across the
northern parts of Alabama, where rain chances are approaching 80
percent. Farther south, the inland advancement of seabreeze
convection and daytime heating should contribute to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. A weak front appears likely to progress
southward on Thursday and provide enhanced rain chances to most
of the forecast area. The upper-level pattern may amplify enough
for the front and highest rain chances to continue moving
southward into southern Alabama Friday and Saturday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered cumulus will continue to develop and build through the
afternoon hours with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
across much of the area. Have included TEMPO groups at most sites
between 21 and 00z to capture best potential time frame, though
TCL may need to be pushed up given activity developing to the
south of that site at this writing. Overnight, showers and a few
storms will diminish. Potential for some patchy fog near water
bodies and there will be low stratus potential across the east and
northeast portions of the area. Cumulus will again develop through
Monday morning with scattered showers and some thunderstorms
developing toward the end of this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High moisture content will remain in place across the region,
providing fuel for daily afternoon and evening showers and storms.
20ft winds will remain near or below 6kts, mainly from the
southeast. Min RH values above 50 percent each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  92  70  89  70 /  30  60  30  70  30
Anniston    71  91  71  89  70 /  40  70  30  60  30
Birmingham  73  92  72  89  73 /  30  60  30  70  30
Tuscaloosa  74  92  72  90  73 /  40  60  30  70  30
Calera      72  90  72  89  73 /  40  60  30  60  30
Auburn      71  89  71  89  71 /  40  70  20  50  20
Montgomery  72  92  73  93  73 /  40  70  20  60  20
Troy        72  91  71  92  71 /  40  70  20  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
301 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-081115-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
301 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

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