Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
240 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/

Through Thursday.

The forecast area remains within a mid level weakness aloft as a
longwave trough extends from over the Great Lakes south to over
the Tennessee Valley region. A surface front was positioned
roughly along I-40 across much of Tennessee while surface high
pressure was far to our southeast off the Atlantic coast.
Complicating the forecast today is the presence of a few
mesoscale-convective vortices which have been triggering clusters
of showers and some storms so far.

Convective hazards today will include heavy storms capable of
producing frequent lighting, torrential downpours, strong winds
and hail. The wet microburst risk is high due to the potential
instability that may be realized in some parts of the area along
with the presence of some drier air aloft, especially across the
western counties. The risk for strong to severe storms will be
best across the western counties this afternoon into early
evening. Heavy rainfall with storm motions less than 30 mph will
support a risk for localized flooding in low- lying and poor
drainage areas.

Today.

Expect increasing clouds today with showers and storms developing
and moving in from the northwest with time. Some storms may be
strong to severe with strong winds and hail, especially west.
Winds will be northwest 4-8 mph. Highs will range from the mid to
upper 80s to the lower 90s.

Tonight.

Showers with some storms will persist, gradually moving further
south with time. Expect mostly cloudy skies otherwise with light
winds. Lows will be range from the upper 60s north to the low 70s
south.

Thursday.

Not much will change aloft on Thursday as the forecast area
remains beneath a mid-level weakness. The lack of meridional
forcing, as is typical in our summer months, will allow the
surface front to stall roughly parallel to the I-20 corridor. The
result will be increasing clouds again Thursday with a growing
coverage of showers and storms. The greatest potential will be
across the south, but activity is expected to work northward into
the Central Counties during the afternoon. Winds will be southeast
at 4-8 mph. Highs will range from the mid 80s in the higher
elevations east to the low 90s west.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0218 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/

Friday through Tuesday.

Rain chances will be fairly limited Friday through Sunday as the
upper trof axis on the southeast side of the upper ridge shifts
southward into southern Georgia and northwest Florida. Better rain
chances will be across the southeast counties each day. On Sunday,
a short wave trof will push southward through the Ohio Valley
region. The trof axis will get close enough to north Alabama
Sunday night for an increase in rain chances across the northwest
counties. The trof axis will weaken as it shifts southward
towards the Gulf Coast early next week, but enough energy for
above normal rain chances Monday and Tuesday.

58/rose

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 0344 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/

Friday through Tuesday.

A mid-level trough axis will extend southwestward from the Carolinas
to the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. At the surface, a weak front
is expected to linger across the southern portions of the forecast
area, where PWAT values could be close to 2 inches. There is model
disagreement regarding the position of the front, but it appears
that enhanced rain chances will be found mainly along and south of
US Highway 80. The advection of drier air across the north all but
ensures areas north of I-20 will remain dry.

There is sizable disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the
weekend, with the GFS more aggressively developing an upper-level
trough over the region. Confidence in this scenario is too low to
warrant an increase in rain chances above our current forecast
through the weekend. Diurnal convection should be isolated or
scattered across the forecast area based on the ECMWF.

Better agreement is found on Monday and Tuesday with the ECMWF
joining the GFS in the development of an upper-level trough. A wide
swath of south to southwesterly flow could result in widespread
showers and storms each day.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Clouds will continue to increase across the northern terminals
and across the far southeast as a surface front approaches from
the northwest. Scattered showers with some thunderstorms are
expected over the next few hours with best potential north and
west. Additional activity is expected to develop further through
mid afternoon with a general motion to the south with time. Expect
scattered showers with some storms persisting tonight with best
chances across the southern terminals followed by scattered
showers and storms developing initially far south, then expanding
north with time during the day on Thursday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weak surface front will push southward across central Alabama
overnight. The front will produce scattered storms through the
evening hours, with the activity diminishing by 10 pm. Most of
the showers and storms on Thursday will be confined to areas south
of I-20, with the activity on Friday mainly along and south of
I-80. 20 foot winds will be light and variable through Thursday,
generally 5 mph or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  88  67  91  68 /  40  30  10  10  10
Anniston    70  87  69  90  69 /  50  40  20  20  10
Birmingham  72  88  71  92  72 /  50  40  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  71  91  71  93  72 /  60  40  10  10  10
Calera      71  87  71  91  71 /  70  50  20  20  10
Auburn      70  85  70  88  70 /  60  70  30  50  20
Montgomery  72  88  72  92  72 /  60  70  30  50  10
Troy        72  87  70  88  70 /  40  80  40  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
225 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-142230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
225 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible into the evening hours. The
threats will be damaging winds and large hail.

Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is also possible. Flooding of
low lying or poor drainage areas may result.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
422 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

ALZ025-132145-
Shelby AL-
422 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Shelby
County through 445 PM CDT...

At 422 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pelham. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hoover, Alabaster, Pelham, Helena, Chelsea, Indian Springs Village,
Riverchase, Oak Mountain State Park, Oak Mountain Amphitheater,
Ballantrae, Saddle Lake Farms, Bounds Lake and Saginaw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Oak Mountain State Park Lake, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 8681 3335 8683 3336 8660 3322 8662
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 282DEG 0KT 3327 8674

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
444 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

ALZ025-132230-
Shelby AL-
444 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Shelby
County through 530 PM CDT...

At 444 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Oak Mountain State Park, or near Pelham. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hoover, Alabaster, Pelham, Helena, Chelsea, Columbiana, Indian
Springs Village, Westover, Riverchase, Oak Mountain State Park, Oak
Mountain Amphitheater, Joe Tucker Park, Ballantrae, Camp Branch,
Saddle Lake Farms, Siluria, Bounds Lake and Saginaw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Oak Mountain State Park Lake, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3336 8652 3319 8661 3320 8685 3333 8684
      3333 8683 3336 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 193DEG 0KT 3328 8671

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

25/Owen

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>