Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
155 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

.UPDATE...
Midday Update and 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022/

A frontal boundary will continue to move to the south towards
Alabama from the MS River Valley through the afternoon and
evening. Scattered convection is possible ahead of this boundary.
Instability will be between 4000 and 4500 J/kg and DCAPE values
between 1200 and 1500 J/kg. LI around -7 and PW values around 2.22
inches. Any thunderstorms that can develop could become strong to
severe with damaging winds up to 60 mph the main threat from
downburst or microburst winds. With such a high air moisture
count...localized flooding is also possible in areas that receive
training thunderstorms.

The boundary is expected to produce clusters of storms with the
main activity moving into the northern counties between 4 pm and
6 pm...moving south to Birmingham between 7 pm and 9 pm...and
finally reach I85 between 10 pm and 12 am. A mid level weak jet
will move through with this boundary and allow for stronger
midlevel winds into the 30-40kt range. Once the actual front moves
into the area...getting into the northern counties between 7 pm
and 9 pm and moving south...sounding profiles become completely
saturated with widespread showers possible through the late
night/early morning. Localized flooding is possible with the
storms produced from this boundary...and showers that remain along
the boundary. By the time the boundary reaches areas between I65
and I85...the boundary will stall somewhat with showers and
occasional thunderstorms possible through the night and early
morning.

Sunday...the boundary will slowly move to the south through the
day...settling over areas around I85. Areas north of this boundary
will have north to northwesterly flow...while areas sough of this
boundary will have south to southwesterly low level flow. With
this band of convergence set up...can expect showers and
thunderstorms through the day. Instability will be around 3000
though DCAPE should remain at or below 1000 J/kg. A few storms
could become strong with damaging winds the main threat...as well
as localized flooding with PW values remaining around 2.2 inches.

High temperatures this afternoon will be upper 80s in the far east
where storms slowly worked through the area today...to the upper
90s in the west with skies remaining mostly clear throughout the
day. Heat indices have remained between 102 and 107 across much
of the state and will let the Heat Advisory continue through 7 PM
tonight. Tonight...low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
Fog development is possible overnight in areas that receive late
rainfall. Sunday...high temperatures will be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s. With temperatures several degrees lower on
Sunday...heat indices only reach the upper 90s.

24

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0330 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022/

Monday through Friday.

A changing synoptic pattern will bring heat relief to the Southeast
this weekend, and this trend will continue into the long-term
forecast period with forecast high temperatures remaining at or
below average.

Generally speaking, deep-layer ridging and anticyclonic flow aloft
is progged to move west and strengthen, encompassing a broad area
centered near the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, a slow-moving
negative height anomaly is progged to remain in our area through at
least Tuesday. This disturbance aloft will coincide with a tropical
airmass now suppressed to our south, fostering clusters of convection
focused across the northern Gulf of Mexico and along the Gulf Coast.
Nonetheless, diurnal rain chances will favor our southern zones for
Monday where PWs approach 2.0" south of I-85. PWs likely remain 1.5"
or less north of I-20 where only isolated coverage is forecast.
Increasing southerly flow will favor moisture advection across
Central Alabama on Tuesday. This led to an increase in diurnal rain
chances.

Medium-range continues to suggest the disturbance/low to our
southwest becoming more cohesive on Tuesday, before advancing
northeast toward the southern Appalachians as an open wave mid-level
trough on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across all
of Central Alabama Wednesday afternoon and evening as PWs could
increase to 2.3" south of I-20. Wednesday will continue to be
watched as rain chances will probably need an increase amidst this
tropical airmass/storm system. Furthermore, wind shear sufficient
for a few severe thunderstorms could manifest for areas south of I-
20 as a ~30 kt low-level jet could coincide with the advancing
disturbance. By Thursday this system will have exited our area to
the east as an upper-level shortwave moves east across the OH and TN
Valleys. Thus, a more subsident environment will be in place on
Thursday with PWs decreasing from the northwest. Regardless, at
least isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast Thursday and
Friday afternoons, with scattered coverage possible south of I-20
where better moisture quality remains.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered convection is possible this afternoon ahead of clusters
of storms moving through the state along an outflow boundary. Due
to uncertainty in timing and coverage...VCTS has been included in
every TAF through the early afternoon. Any thunderstorm that moves
over a TAF site could reduce visibilities to IFR due to the heavy
rainfall and high moisture content. Fog development is possible at
each TAF site overnight...but have left mention out of the TAFs
for now due to uncertainty in intensity and coverage. Sunday...
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again through the
day as the frontal boundary lays across the middle of the state.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will persist through this afternoon with
heat indices above 105 at times. Fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with soaking
rainfall. Some convection could be strong to severe with locally
heavy rainfall. Southwesterly surface and transport winds at 5-10
mph are forecast today. Winds will veer behind a front later
tonight, and slightly drier air will advect from the northwest for
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  87  69  88  70 /  80  60  20  30  10
Anniston    69  86  71  87  71 /  90  70  20  40  20
Birmingham  72  88  72  89  73 /  90  60  20  30  10
Tuscaloosa  74  89  73  93  73 /  90  50  10  30  10
Calera      72  86  72  89  72 /  90  60  20  40  20
Auburn      71  86  72  86  72 /  80  80  50  60  30
Montgomery  74  91  74  91  73 /  80  80  40  60  30
Troy        73  88  72  89  72 /  60  80  50  70  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
338 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-102345-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
338 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Heat indices are expected to be near or above 105 degrees this
afternoon, with some locations approaching 109 degrees.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through midnight across
all of Central Alabama. Damaging wind up to 65 mph is the primary
threat.

Showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall through
this evening. A few inches of rain may fall in a short period of
time. Flooding of low lying or poor drainage areas may result.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through this evening.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
532 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

ALZ024>026-092315-
Jefferson AL-Shelby AL-St. Clair AL-
532 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Shelby,
east central Jefferson and southwestern St. Clair Counties through
615 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shops of Grand River, or over Leeds, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Trussville, Pell City, Leeds, Moody, Argo, Shops of Grand River, Bald
Rock, Vandiver, Barber Motorsports Park, Coosa Island, Branchville,
Lake Purdy, Logan Martin Lake, Chula Vista and Camp Winnataska.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 8630 3345 8632 3342 8634 3349 8665
      3365 8657
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 281DEG 7KT 3354 8659

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

17/KLAWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
539 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

ALZ012-013-015-022>024-092345-
Fayette AL-Walker AL-Pickens AL-Jefferson AL-Tuscaloosa AL-Lamar AL-
539 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Walker, Tuscaloosa,
northern Pickens, central Jefferson, southern Fayette and southern
Lamar Counties through 645 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sipsey to Oakman to 7 miles south of
Bankston to near Steens. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Bessemer, Northport, Hueytown, Jasper,
Gardendale, Irondale, Fairfield, Fultondale, Fayette, Sumiton,
Cordova, Dora, Gordo, Reform, Millport, Carrollton, Holt and Center
Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central and west central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3367 8826 3366 8779 3397 8714 3389 8709
      3389 8701 3382 8695 3384 8690 3357 8664
      3319 8743 3320 8813 3348 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 327DEG 29KT 3387 8707 3371 8738 3356 8771 3357
8824

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

17/KLAWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
612 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

ALZ024-025-092345-
Jefferson AL-Shelby AL-
612 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Shelby and
southeastern Jefferson Counties through 645 PM CDT...

At 612 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Birmingham to near Abernant. Movement was
southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Birmingham, Hoover, Vestavia Hills, Alabaster, Bessemer,
Homewood, Pelham, Mountain Brook, Helena, Irondale, Calera, Chelsea,
Montevallo, Wilsonville, Brighton, Indian Springs Village, Lipscomb,
Harpersville, Westover and Wilton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central and west central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3332 8640 3306 8692 3311 8697 3316 8697
      3317 8703 3319 8702 3325 8703 3325 8706
      3328 8707 3328 8709 3329 8709 3329 8712
      3331 8713 3331 8716 3332 8716 3332 8718
      3357 8664
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 324DEG 35KT 3351 8679 3330 8727

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

89^GSatterwhite

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
616 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE BIRMINGPORT       33.58N 87.08W
07/09/2022  E50 MPH          JEFFERSON          AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MAL