River Flood Warning 40, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
730 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022/
Through This Afternoon.

A line of convection pushed south across the area this morning along
a pseudo warm front/moisture gradient. To the north, a cold front
is extending southwest from an area of low surface pressure over
the Northeast region. The cold front will continue to drift
southward this afternoon then stall across southern Alabama
tonight. Temperature trends have been limited by the overcast, so
I did bring highs down a couple degrees.

Convection continues over Central Mississippi and our far
southwestern counties. This activity is meandering along an
instability gradient and has been able to maintain intensity while
also showing some slight eastward motion. Some of these storms may
drift further into our southwestern counties as we continue through
the afternoon, posing an isolated risk for large hail and/or
damaging winds. Along the I-20 corridor, expect mainly scattered
stratiform showers with a few rumbles of thunder possible
throughout the afternoon. The cold front will continue south over
the next several hours and should act to push much of the
convection further south with any risk of stronger storms ending
by this evening.

Tonight through Tomorrow.

Other than a few isolated showers, latest model runs have trended
drier overnight. These drier solutions have therefore turned towards
patchy fog development which may begin to occur after midnight due
to the moist surface conditions with the potential for some clearing
in the cloud cover. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed if widespread
development appears increasingly likely.

The stalled front will lift northward tomorrow morning, another
round of convection will develop along the boundary. These storms
will track northwest to southeast throughout the afternoon and
into the evening. Any stronger storms will once again pose an
isolated risk for quarter size hail and damaging winds, mainly
across our southern half in the more unstable airmass.

86

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 355 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022/
Monday through Friday.

Only minor changes were made to the extended forecast. Pops were
refined for the front/rain exit for Monday morning with the
system looking a little quicker. After that, we have E Conus
ridging for the Tue/Wed time frame. Wednesday does show the ridge
weakening and beginning to push EWD. While Thu through the weekend
remain rain free, we will see a warming trend as onshore flow
takes over as well as upper ridging over the SE US into the Gulf
of Mexico.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 310 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022/
Monday through Friday.

The main cold front finally pushes through the area on Monday
morning and drier weather will move into the region. The warming
trend and drier air will persist through the end of the week. The
could be one caveat to this though. A cold front will try to edge
its way into our far northwestern on Thursday. Really looks like
the main ridge over the southeast will win this battle and keep
the front at bay for the rest of the extended period. Look for
temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s by Friday and into
next weekend as a trough and upper low stall out in the western
states.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

The remaining showers were in the vicinity of MGM/TOI early this
evening. This activity will continue slowly diminishing the next
few hours. Rain chances do start back up before sunrise with
showers and thunderstorms expected again on Sunday at all
terminals.

VFR conditions will exist for a few hours this evening before a
combination of low clouds and fog develops. This will likely knock
flight conditions to IFR/LIFR after 06z, potentially sooner. Winds
will become light and variable.

Light east southeast to variable winds are expected Sunday as
ceilings slowly rise to MVFR and hold there the remainder of the
period. These ceilings/vis will be impacted by the convection.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several rounds of showers and storms will impact the area through
early Monday morning. Dry conditions return by midday Monday
behind a cold front, lasting through the remainder of the upcoming
week. Temperatures will be warming each day starting Wednesday on
through next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  68  55  71  41 /  20  70  60  10   0
Anniston    56  72  58  71  43 /  30  70  60  20   0
Birmingham  58  70  57  71  46 /  40  80  60  10   0
Tuscaloosa  60  72  56  73  46 /  40  80  80   0   0
Calera      60  72  60  72  47 /  40  80  80  10   0
Auburn      59  74  62  74  47 /  50  80  90  30   0
Montgomery  61  78  62  76  47 /  60  80  90  20   0
Troy        62  79  63  77  49 /  60  80  90  30   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
615 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-180215-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
615 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe storms are possible Sunday afternoon through Sunday night
for generally the southern two thirds of Central Alabama. Threats
include large hail and damaging straight line winds.

Rainfall will lead to river flooding across portions of the Black
Warrior, Sucarnoochee, and Tombigbee Rivers, beginning as early as
Monday and potentially lasting through the remainder of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     HAIL             4 WNW HAVANA            32.91N 87.68W
04/16/2022  E1.00 INCH       HALE               AL   PUBLIC

            HAIL AROUND QUARTER SIZE WITH AN ASSORTMENT
            OF SMALLER SIZES IN STEWART; HAIL DIMPLES TO
            THE ROOF OF A VEHICLE.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
404 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 AM     HAIL             2 NNW MARION            32.65N 87.32W
04/16/2022  E1.00 INCH       PERRY              AL   PUBLIC

            HAIL AROUND QUARTER SIZE REPORTED 2 MILES
            NORTH OF THE COURTHOUSE IN MARION.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
434 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WNW MORGAN SPRINGS    32.78N 87.52W
04/16/2022                   HALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTED HUNDREDS OF TREES UPROOTED AND
            SOME SNAPPED OVER A WIDE PATH NEAR SR 25 AND
            CR 32, SEEMINGLY FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
436 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 AM     HAIL             2 NNW MARION            32.66N 87.33W
04/16/2022  E1.00 INCH       PERRY              AL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG CR 29 ON
            THE NW SIDE OF MARION.

&&

GMS