Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Birmingham, AL

318 
WWUS84 KBMX 291621
RFWBMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1121 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...

ALZ022-023-030>036-039>044-300000-
/O.CON.KBMX.FW.W.0003.220929T1700Z-220930T0000Z/
Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-
Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-
1121 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Red Flag
Warning for South Central and South Western Alabama, which is in 
effect from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening. The Fire Weather 
Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of a dry air mass and windy 
  conditions will result in critical fire weather conditions. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
252 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2022

Today through Friday.

Central Alabama will continue to be on the dry and cooler side of
Tropical Cyclone Ian. The tight pressure gradient will produce
northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts today and again on
Friday. The combination of wind and low relative humidity values
will produce favorable conditions for wildfire across the southwest
counties today, and a red flag warning will be issued.

58/rose

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2022

Saturday through Wednesday.

Latest trends in the forecast continue to keep Ian well to our east
to the point where the chance for rain in Central AL is minimal.
There's still a low-end probability that some light rain brushes
along our eastern counties, but given the latest trends, I've
dropped any mention of rain in the forecast. Windy conditions will
persist through the weekend with sustained winds 10-15 mph with
gusts up to 20-25 mph.

Since we remain on the drier side of Ian's track, expect continued
rain-free conditions through early next week as the main upper
trough lifts northeastward. By midweek, we start to see a more zonal
flow setup up over the Southern CONUS with an upper jet stretched
through the area. The low pressure associated with Ian remains to
our east, so we don't really see any deep moisture return that would
support any rainfall through at least Wednesday. Afternoon
temperatures begin to trend upward with highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Low temperatures are expected to remain in the low to mid
50s for most of the area each morning.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2022

VFR conds thru the period with no wx/cig/vsby issues. Sfc winds
will average 5-7 kts from the northeast thru 13z, then increase
to 12-15 kts sustained with gusts 20-25 kts thru 22z, then
decrease to 7-10 kts sustained. Low level wind shear will occur at
KMGM/KTOI thru 13z with 2000 ft winds near 40 kts.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values will fall at or below critical values mainly along and
west of I-65 this afternoon. 20ft winds will be around 15 mph
gusting to 25 mph in southeast portions of Central Alabama,
decreasing further to the northwest. Breezy conditions will
continue across the southeast counties Friday through Saturday,
but relative humidity values will increase as a southeast flow
develops with outer rain bands from Ian moving into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     75  50  78  52 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    75  52  77  53 /   0   0  10  10
Birmingham  75  52  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  77  52  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      75  54  78  54 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      74  57  75  56 /   0   0  10  10
Montgomery  78  55  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        79  57  79  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-
Greene-Hale-Lowndes-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Sumter-
Tuscaloosa.

&&

SHORT TERM...58/rose
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...58/rose

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
253 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-301100-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
253 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

A combination of low relative humidity values and breezy conditions
will result in increased fire danger this afternoon across the south
central portions of Central Alabama. Outdoor burning is highly
discouraged.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.