Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Birmingham, AL

914 
WGUS74 KBMX 041044
FFSBMX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
544 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

ALC019-041300-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-220904T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cherokee AL-
544 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING 
FOR NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY...

At 544 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in 
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Cedar Bluff, Little River Canyon National Preserve, Gaylesville, 
  Blanche, Little River Falls, Cornwall Furnace Park, Eastern Weiss 
  Lake, Western Weiss Lake, Broomtown, New Moon, Fullerton and 
  Chesterfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8547 3420 8558 3424 8567 3432 8571
      3436 8566 3437 8563 3439 8562 3440 8563
      3440 8561 3444 8558 3447 8558 3447 8557
      3448 8558 3449 8556 3450 8556 3450 8555
      3452 8552 3452 8553 3453 8552 3452 8551

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

40/Sizemore

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
349 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0345 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022/

Today through Monday.

An upper trof axis just west of the Mississippi River will deepen
slightly today and increase lift for areas east of the MS River.
This will result in widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms
across Central Alabama today, with pockets of locally heavy
rainfall. The coverage of rain will increase throughout the day.
Cloud cover and cooler daytime temperatures will temper instability,
so thunderstorm intensities and coverage will be somewhat limited
today. The upper trof axis will remain nearly stationary through
Monday, and there will be sufficient lift for scattered to numerous
showers tonight and again Monday. A dry slot of mid level air will
spread northeast across Northwest Florida and into Southeast Alabama
on Monday. This will suppress rain chances and lowered pops south of
the I-85 corridor.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0345 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022/

Tuesday through Saturday.

A positively-tilted upper-level trough is forecast to generally
position from southern Texas northeastward all the way through the
Great Lakes at the beginning of the period. However, having already
been in place for a couple of days by this point, some changes to
its characteristics are expected to occur by Wed/Thu. Guidance
suggests a couple embedded shortwave disturbances will eject
northeast on Tuesday while another potent shortwave dives south
from the Upper Midwest through the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday
morning. Thereafter, this shortwave will interact with a small
upper-low near the base of the trough and the overall system is
expected to "cut off" from the northern stream. The more broad
upper low is then progged to slowly meander near the lower
Mississippi Valley for (possibly) several days.

All things considered, this overall synoptic setup will favor
continued wet and stormy conditions across the region for all of the
long-term period. Due to the slow-moving nature of the cutoff low
through this time, the general forecast has not wavered much. I've
maintained elevated rain chances most days, with high temperatures
resultantly below their respective climate averages. Tue and Wed may
end up being the less active days before mid- to upper-level
dynamics/forcing increase on Thu. PoPs are the highest Thu
through Sat as the upper low positions near Louisiana with
southerly deep-layer flow establishing across the I-65 corridor,
along with a zone of upper-level divergence. PWs will remain
1.8-2.2" through this period suggesting scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms each day. We'll need to monitor forecast
trends over the coming days as this scenario could lead to
flooding issues.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across much of Central
AL this evening. This activity should start to diminish
overnight, but give way to lower CIGS and VIS. There could be some
fog development in places that it rained heavily, but confidence
at any specific terminal is low at this time. More rain and
thunderstorms develop again tomorrow, with best chances for TSRA
being in the afternoon, so will include as a Prob30 group for now.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

All fire weather elements will remain below critical thresholds
over the coming days. Moisture content will remain elevated with
periods of showers and thunderstorms for the next several days,
mainly in the afternoon and evening. Surface and transport winds
will remain in a southerly to southeasterly direction at 5-10 mph
this afternoon before becoming more southwesterly tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     81  70  85  68  87 /  80  80  70  30  40
Anniston    82  71  85  70  87 /  80  70  70  30  40
Birmingham  82  71  85  70  87 /  80  70  70  20  40
Tuscaloosa  83  72  85  70  87 /  80  50  60  20  40
Calera      83  71  86  70  87 /  80  70  60  20  40
Auburn      83  71  85  70  88 /  80  60  50  20  30
Montgomery  86  73  88  73  91 /  80  50  50  20  30
Troy        86  72  89  71  91 /  80  50  40  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&