Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
648 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

.UPDATE...
Evening Update and 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0630 PM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022/

Convection is becoming widely scattered this early evening, though
best coverage of lingering showers and thunderstorms remains
across our southern counties. This activity will continue to
gradually diminish over the next few hours. I kept temperature and
dewpoint trends pretty much the same overnight and maintained the
mention of patchy fog/low clouds for areas east of I-65. Most
places stay calm/clear with perhaps scattered high clouds incoming
from the west.

Pressure rises have occurred across the Gulf this evening as low-
level ridging is showing signs of building in from the east. This
will allow for more of a southerly to southwesterly breeze
tomorrow afternoon with highs in the 80s and low 90s once again.
Diurnal heating and moist boundary layer conditions will once
again foster scattered showers and thunderstorms. I have the best
coverage across the south where PWs likely hover at ~2.0" or
greater. Despite decent moisture availability, coverage has been
low in spots the past few days, so I preferred not to have any
PoP areas increased as it is low-predictability mesoscale
features leading to this higher coverage.

40/Sizemore

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0237 PM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022/

Minimal changes to the long term forecast. We will continue to
monitor the threat for excessive heat beginning next week,
specifically after Wednesday as a 594dam high settles firmly over
much of the Southeast. Otherwise expect stormy afternoon and
evenings through the period.

17/KLAWS

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 0331 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022/

Sunday through Thursday.

A messy summertime pattern will continue through the much of the
upcoming week.

A weak ridge remains fairly persistent across the Southern CONUS
leading to a broad area limited forcing. This should allow for
scattered to numerous thunderstorms on Sunday. The ridge becomes
slightly more amplified Monday through Thursday which will lead to
more typical diurnal summertime thunderstorm activity across Central
AL. As the ridge builds in during the upcoming week, the afternoon
high temperatures will trend upwards slightly, along with the heat
indices. Right now, the forecast continues to range from 100-104
degree heat indices for a good portion of the area Monday through
Thursday, so be prepared for a hot and muggy Independence Day.
The question will be how much mixing can occur each afternoon.
We'll need to monitor the max heat indices for much of the
upcoming week to assess the need for heat advisories. Since we're
fairly close to criteria, I'll introduce the potential for some
heat impacts in the hazardous weather outlook Monday through
Thursday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Conditions across all terminals are calming at this hour, and
will continue to clear into the evening with lingering SHRA and
TSRA activity diminishing. Only have a VCSH at MGM and TOI for
the next few hours. VFR will continue across the area, but some
patchy fog may develop overnight with some patchy low clouds. Best
confidence is at ASN/ANB, but included BCFG at TCL/TOI as well.
Winds should become more southerly to southwesterly tomorrow at
4-7 kts with scattered afternoon convection. Handled TSRA with
PROB30s at this time. Best chances are at MGM/TOI, but any
terminal could see a shower or storm at some point tomorrow
afternoon. These, as usual, will contain brief cig/vis reductions,
gusty winds, and lightning.

40/Sizemore

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist air mass will remain in place areawide through early next
week, with scattered to numerous showers and storms each
afternoon. Due to increased low level moisture and evening
rainfall, early morning low cigs and patchy fog are possible each
day. Minimum RH values remain above 50 percent each afternoon
through at least Wednesday. 20ft winds remain light, less than
10mph, and generally from the south through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  90  70  89  70 /  20  40  20  60  20
Anniston    70  90  71  89  72 /  20  50  20  60  20
Birmingham  71  91  73  90  73 /  20  50  20  60  20
Tuscaloosa  72  93  73  91  73 /  30  40  20  60  20
Calera      72  90  73  89  73 /  30  50  20  60  20
Auburn      71  88  71  88  72 /  40  50  30  50  20
Montgomery  72  92  74  93  74 /  40  60  30  50  20
Troy        71  90  71  90  72 /  30  60  30  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
409 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-021215-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
409 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heat indices could reach 100-105 degrees each afternoon Monday
through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
anticipated at this time.