Wind Chill Warning 8, NWS Bismarck, ND

784 
WWUS43 KBIS 240037
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
637 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

NDZ003>005-012-013-022-023-025-241200-
/O.CON.KBIS.WC.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220224T1800Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Including the cities of Carrington, Rugby, Goodrich, Towner,
Shell Valley, Fessenden, Harvey, Rolette, Glenburn, Dunseith,
Sherwood, St. John, Velva, Drake, Mohall, Mcclusky, Rolla, and
Bottineau
637 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 45 below zero 
  expected.

* WHERE...North central North Dakota and the northern James River 
  Valley.

* WHEN...Until Noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite 
  on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outdoor activities if possible. Wear appropriate clothing, 
making sure to cover exposed skin. Pack a winter survival kit if 
traveling.

&&

$$

NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>037-040>048-050-051-241200-
/O.CON.KBIS.WC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-220224T1800Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La
Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Parshall, Hettinger, Bismarck, Wilton,
Marmarth, Linton, Killdeer, Tappen, Dickinson, Minot, Jamestown,
Mandan, Beach, New Leipzig, New Town, Watford City, Columbus,
Solen, Hazen, New England, Wishek, Underwood, Ellendale, Portal,
Lignite, Mott, Lamoure, Napoleon, Beulah, Ashley, Center, Bowman,
Selfridge, Edgeley, Garrison, Medora, Washburn, Bowbells, Carson,
Elgin, Fort Yates, Halliday, Gackle, Steele, Oakes, Kulm, Crosby,
Strasburg, Powers Lake, Stanley, Williston, and Turtle Lake
637 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 /537 PM MST Wed Feb 23 2022/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST/11 AM MST/ 
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 40 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Western and southern North Dakota. 

* WHEN...Until Noon CST/11 AM MST/ Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The very cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outdoor activities if possible. Wear appropriate clothing, 
making sure to cover exposed skin. Pack a winter survival kit if 
traveling.

&&

$$

Schild

655 
WWUS43 KBIS 241110
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
510 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022

NDZ003>005-012-013-022-023-025-241800-
/O.CON.KBIS.WC.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220224T1800Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Including the cities of Carrington, Rugby, Goodrich, Towner,
Shell Valley, Fessenden, Harvey, Rolette, Glenburn, Dunseith,
Sherwood, St. John, Velva, Drake, Mohall, Mcclusky, Rolla, and
Bottineau
510 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 45 below zero 
  expected.

* WHERE...North central North Dakota and the northern James River 
  Valley.

* WHEN...Until Noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite 
  on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outdoor activities if possible. Wear appropriate clothing, 
making sure to cover exposed skin. Pack a winter survival kit if 
traveling.

&&

$$

NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>037-040>048-050-051-241800-
/O.CON.KBIS.WC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-220224T1800Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La
Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Parshall, Hettinger, Bismarck, Wilton,
Marmarth, Linton, Killdeer, Tappen, Dickinson, Minot, Jamestown,
Mandan, Beach, New Leipzig, New Town, Watford City, Columbus,
Solen, Hazen, New England, Wishek, Underwood, Ellendale, Portal,
Lignite, Mott, Lamoure, Napoleon, Beulah, Ashley, Center, Bowman,
Selfridge, Edgeley, Garrison, Medora, Washburn, Bowbells, Carson,
Elgin, Fort Yates, Halliday, Gackle, Steele, Oakes, Kulm, Crosby,
Strasburg, Powers Lake, Stanley, Williston, and Turtle Lake
510 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 /410 AM MST Thu Feb 24 2022/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST/11 AM MST/ 
TODAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 40 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Western and southern North Dakota. 

* WHEN...Until Noon CST/11 AM MST/ today.

* IMPACTS...The very cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outdoor activities if possible. Wear appropriate clothing, 
making sure to cover exposed skin. Pack a winter survival kit if 
traveling.

&&

$$

Jones

426 
WWUS43 KBIS 241733
WSWBIS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1133 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022

NDZ003>005-012-013-022-023-025-241845-
/O.EXP.KBIS.WC.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220224T1800Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Including the cities of Carrington, Rugby, Goodrich, Towner,
Shell Valley, Fessenden, Harvey, Rolette, Glenburn, Dunseith,
Sherwood, St. John, Velva, Drake, Mohall, Mcclusky, Rolla, and
Bottineau
1133 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WIND CHILL WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY...

Wind chills have dropped below Warning and Advisory criteria. 

$$

NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>037-040>048-050-051-241845-
/O.EXP.KBIS.WC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-220224T1800Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La
Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Parshall, Hettinger, Bismarck, Wilton,
Marmarth, Linton, Killdeer, Tappen, Dickinson, Minot, Jamestown,
Mandan, Beach, New Leipzig, New Town, Watford City, Columbus,
Solen, Hazen, New England, Wishek, Underwood, Ellendale, Portal,
Lignite, Mott, Lamoure, Napoleon, Beulah, Ashley, Center, Bowman,
Selfridge, Edgeley, Garrison, Medora, Washburn, Bowbells, Carson,
Elgin, Fort Yates, Halliday, Gackle, Steele, Oakes, Kulm, Crosby,
Strasburg, Powers Lake, Stanley, Williston, and Turtle Lake
1133 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022 /1033 AM MST Thu Feb 24 2022/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST/11 AM MST/ TODAY...

Wind chills have dropped below Advisory criteria.

$$

Hamilton

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1204 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

Wind chills have improved below headline criteria for most of the
CWA, though remain quite cold around the Turtle Mountains. Very
cold wind chills are expected again tonight and headlines will be
evaluated with the afternoon package.

UPDATE Issued at 943 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

Cold high pressure persists this morning, with sunny skies. 1530Z
wind chills ranged from -30 F to -40 F, therefore wind chill
headlines remain in place. Will reevaluate headlines closer to the
planned 18Z expiration but current thinking is an expansion in
time shouldn't be needed.

UPDATE Issued at 604 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

No changes needed for this update. The surface high stretches
across the central Dakotas, with the lowest temperature reported
at 12 UTC a brisk -30 degrees at an NDAWN station in Bowman
County, with multiple -28 degrees obs too. Wind chill headlines
continue until noon CST today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills are the main forecast
concern in the short term.

Early this morning, the center of an Arctic high pressure extended
from northeast Montana, through western North Dakota, and into
central South Dakota, leading to clear skies and light winds
across much of the forecast area. Aloft, flow across the state was
zonal, with troughing digging across the southwest CONUS.

Temperatures and wind chills are bitterly cold this morning, with
air temperatures expected to be as low as 30 degrees below zero
in northern North Dakota, with wind chills in the 50 to 55 degrees
below range. Wind chill headlines continue through noon today.

The good news is that winds will be much lighter today and skies
will be mostly sunny as the surface high slowly drifts east
through the day. Temperatures will actually reach above zero in
the western half of the state, with highs around 5 above in the
southwest to around 5 below in the Turtle Mountains. Additional
wind chill headlines will be needed tonight, as air temperatures
drop back down to 15 to 25 degrees below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

A steady warming trend and no major chances for precipitation
highlight the extended forecast.

Flow aloft across the region is expected to stay northwesterly in
response to ridging building over the Pacific Northwest. As this
ridging amplifies and the aforementioned Arctic high exits to our
east, we begin a steady warming trend through the end of the
week. Thursday's highs will still be chilly, with highs around
zero east to the mid teens west, but then highs Friday will be in
the mid teens to mid 20s, and Saturday will reach the lower 20s to
lower 30s. Small spread in NBM temperature percentiles signals
high confidence in these temperatures and the overall warming
trend.

Temperatures dip briefly on Sunday as a cold front moves through,
but then moderate through much of next week as cluster analysis
shows good agreement among ensemble guidance of the upper ridge
extending across much of the western and central CONUS. This
should keep temperatures near to above average through most of the
work week before some hints of a cooling trend emerge.

There aren't any substantial chances for precipitation in the
extended period, with GEFS plumes showing very little QPF through
the end of the month. However, with northwest flow we tend to get
weak waves moving through that can bring low chances for
precipitation, but those chances don't show up until the day or
two before as they get washed out in the blend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

High pressure continues over the region and VFR conditions
expected to persist through the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...AE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1205 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-241815-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1205 PM CST Wed Feb 23 2022 /1105 AM MST Wed Feb 23 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Frigid wind chills are expected late tonight into early Thursday,
and again late Thursday into early Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Frigid wind chills are expected late tonight into early Thursday,
and again late Thursday into early Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.