Wind Advisory 35, NWS Bismarck, ND

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND

436 
WWUS73 KBIS 231009
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
509 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

NDZ003-010>012-019>022-034>036-042-045>047-050-231815-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.221024T0600Z-221024T2100Z/
Renville-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-
Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-McIntosh-
Including the cities of Ashley, Wilton, Goodrich, Glenburn,
Minot, Parshall, Center, Solen, Hazen, Stanley, Garrison,
Napoleon, New Town, Towner, Carson, Linton, Underwood, Washburn,
Wishek, Velva, Beulah, Selfridge, New Leipzig, Elgin, Turtle
Lake, Bismarck, Steele, Sherwood, Drake, Gackle, Mandan, Fort
Yates, Strasburg, Mohall, Tappen, and Mcclusky
509 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 /409 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 4 
PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Much of central North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Things left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Hargrove

563 
WWUS73 KBIS 231515
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1015 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

NDZ003-010>012-019>022-034>036-042-045>047-050-232315-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.221024T0600Z-221024T2100Z/
Renville-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-
Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-McIntosh-
Including the cities of Towner, Glenburn, Parshall, Drake,
Tappen, Mohall, Garrison, Washburn, New Leipzig, Sherwood, Solen,
Center, Wishek, Steele, Goodrich, Mcclusky, Hazen, Carson, Velva,
Napoleon, Beulah, Ashley, Fort Yates, Minot, Gackle, Strasburg,
Turtle Lake, Underwood, Elgin, Mandan, Linton, New Town, Stanley,
Bismarck, Selfridge, and Wilton
1015 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 /915 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 4 
PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Much of central North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Hollan

498 
WWUS73 KBIS 231911
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
211 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

NDZ004-005-013-023-025-037-048-051-240315-
/O.EXB.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.221024T0600Z-221025T0000Z/
Bottineau-Rolette-Pierce-Wells-Foster-Stutsman-La Moure-Dickey-
Including the cities of Ellendale, Rolette, Lamoure, Jamestown,
Edgeley, Fessenden, St. John, Kulm, Carrington, Shell Valley,
Bottineau, Rolla, Dunseith, Rugby, Oakes, and Harvey
211 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Much of central North Dakota, including the James River 
  Valley.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ001-002-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-240315-
/O.EXB.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.221024T1800Z-221025T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-
Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
Including the cities of Bowman, Crosby, Watford City, Columbus,
Dickinson, Beach, Portal, Mott, Hettinger, Halliday, Medora,
Williston, Lignite, Killdeer, New England, Marmarth, Powers Lake,
and Bowbells
211 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 /111 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 
PM MDT/ MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Much of western North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 1 PM CDT /Noon MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ003-011-012-019>022-034>036-042-045>047-050-240315-
/O.EXT.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.221024T0600Z-221025T0000Z/
Renville-Ward-McHenry-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Morton-
Burleigh-Kidder-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-McIntosh-
Including the cities of Towner, Glenburn, Drake, Tappen, Mohall,
Garrison, Washburn, New Leipzig, Sherwood, Solen, Center, Wishek,
Steele, Goodrich, Hazen, Mcclusky, Carson, Velva, Napoleon,
Beulah, Ashley, Fort Yates, Minot, Gackle, Strasburg, Turtle
Lake, Underwood, Elgin, Mandan, Linton, Bismarck, Selfridge, and
Wilton
211 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 /111 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 7 PM 
CDT /6 PM MDT/ MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Much of central North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ010-240315-
/O.EXT.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.221024T1800Z-221025T0000Z/
Mountrail-
Including the cities of New Town, Stanley, and Parshall
211 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Mountrail County.

* WHEN...From 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Hollan

630 
WWUS73 KBIS 240401
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1101 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-241215-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.221024T0600Z-221025T0000Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Carrington, Steele, Napoleon, Fort Yates,
Harvey, Center, Velva, Fessenden, Sherwood, Ashley, Linton,
Towner, St. John, Bottineau, New Leipzig, Selfridge, Jamestown,
Goodrich, Ellendale, Underwood, Mcclusky, Mandan, Mohall,
Edgeley, Dunseith, Washburn, Shell Valley, Bismarck, Kulm, Hazen,
Wilton, Minot, Rolette, Turtle Lake, Rugby, Strasburg, Carson,
Lamoure, Tappen, Wishek, Garrison, Solen, Gackle, Drake,
Glenburn, Elgin, Oakes, Beulah, and Rolla
1101 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 /1001 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central North Dakota including the James River Valley

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-241215-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.221024T1800Z-221025T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
Including the cities of Stanley, Killdeer, Portal, Powers Lake,
Watford City, Columbus, Bowman, Williston, Bowbells, New England,
Halliday, Beach, Parshall, Mott, Hettinger, Crosby, Medora,
Lignite, New Town, Dickinson, and Marmarth
1101 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 /1001 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 7 PM 
CDT /6 PM MDT/ MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western North Dakota

* WHEN...From 1 PM CDT /Noon MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Telken

049 
WWUS73 KBIS 241021
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
521 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022

NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-241830-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-221025T0000Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Lamoure, Linton, Shell Valley, Underwood,
Drake, New Leipzig, Sherwood, Rugby, Steele, Glenburn,
Carrington, Washburn, Gackle, Mohall, Mandan, Oakes, Turtle Lake,
Center, Goodrich, Towner, Carson, Dunseith, Wishek, Jamestown,
Hazen, Garrison, Wilton, Rolla, Mcclusky, Harvey, Edgeley,
Rolette, Minot, Velva, Bottineau, Fessenden, Elgin, Napoleon, St.
John, Ellendale, Fort Yates, Beulah, Ashley, Bismarck, Kulm,
Tappen, Strasburg, Solen, and Selfridge
521 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 /421 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central North Dakota including the James River Valley

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-241830-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.221024T1800Z-221025T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
Including the cities of New England, Portal, Bowman, Bowbells,
Dickinson, Williston, Stanley, Lignite, Crosby, Hettinger, Powers
Lake, Parshall, Marmarth, New Town, Halliday, Mott, Beach,
Killdeer, Columbus, Medora, and Watford City
521 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 /421 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS 
AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western North Dakota

* WHEN...From 1 PM CDT /Noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM CDT /6 PM 
  MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Jones

775 
WWUS73 KBIS 241611
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1111 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022

NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-250000-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-221025T0000Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Mandan, Jamestown, Mohall, Wishek, Turtle
Lake, Bottineau, Lamoure, Garrison, Ellendale, Shell Valley,
Kulm, Velva, New Leipzig, Glenburn, Selfridge, Napoleon, Hazen,
Gackle, Sherwood, Fort Yates, Rugby, Minot, Linton, Washburn,
Steele, Elgin, Mcclusky, Ashley, Strasburg, Wilton, Dunseith,
Fessenden, Rolette, Drake, Underwood, Tappen, Carson, Bismarck,
Solen, Beulah, Rolla, Towner, Goodrich, Center, Harvey, St. John,
Edgeley, Carrington, and Oakes
1111 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 /1011 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central North Dakota including the James River Valley

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-250000-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.221024T1800Z-221025T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
Including the cities of Dickinson, Medora, Parshall, Killdeer,
Beach, Watford City, Lignite, New England, Williston, Crosby,
Stanley, Portal, New Town, Bowbells, Marmarth, Columbus, Mott,
Powers Lake, Hettinger, Halliday, and Bowman
1111 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 /1011 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western North Dakota

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Hollan

458 
WWUS73 KBIS 241909
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
209 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-250000-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-221025T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
Including the cities of Dickinson, Medora, Parshall, Killdeer,
Beach, Watford City, Lignite, New England, Williston, Crosby,
Stanley, Portal, New Town, Bowbells, Marmarth, Columbus, Mott,
Powers Lake, Hettinger, Halliday, and Bowman
209 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 /109 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western North Dakota

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-250000-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-221025T0000Z/
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Mandan, Jamestown, Mohall, Wishek, Turtle
Lake, Bottineau, Lamoure, Garrison, Ellendale, Shell Valley,
Kulm, Velva, New Leipzig, Glenburn, Selfridge, Napoleon, Hazen,
Gackle, Sherwood, Fort Yates, Rugby, Minot, Linton, Washburn,
Steele, Elgin, Mcclusky, Ashley, Strasburg, Wilton, Dunseith,
Fessenden, Rolette, Drake, Underwood, Tappen, Carson, Bismarck,
Solen, Beulah, Rolla, Towner, Goodrich, Center, Harvey, St. John,
Edgeley, Carrington, and Oakes
209 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 /109 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central North Dakota including the James River Valley

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Hollan

075 
WWUS73 KBIS 242230
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
530 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-242330-
/O.CAN.KBIS.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-221025T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La
Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Tappen, Marmarth, Gackle,
Lignite, Ellendale, Washburn, Elgin, Garrison, Turtle Lake,
Oakes, Goodrich, Rolette, Center, St. John, Mcclusky, Carson,
Bowman, Glenburn, Rolla, Underwood, Bowbells, Mohall, Drake,
Watford City, Crosby, Fessenden, Shell Valley, Harvey, Dunseith,
Beach, New Town, Beulah, Carrington, Sherwood, New England,
Bismarck, Wilton, Mandan, Fort Yates, Bottineau, Stanley, Solen,
Napoleon, Edgeley, New Leipzig, Linton, Towner, Rugby, Lamoure,
Columbus, Minot, Hazen, Selfridge, Wishek, Kulm, Williston,
Ashley, Dickinson, Portal, Strasburg, Parshall, Velva, Powers
Lake, Killdeer, Medora, Hettinger, Mott, Steele, and Halliday
530 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 /430 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Gusty northwest winds will continue to decrease over the next few 
hours. Therefore, the wind advisory is cancelled for western and 
central North Dakota.

$$

Heinert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1240 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

A few light radar echoes continue to be observed across portions
of the west with most of the precipitation developing over eastern
Montana. Still think we will continue to see a few light rain
drops here and there across the northwest over the next few hours.
No major changes were needed for this update. Just blended in the
latest observations to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 908 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022

Light precipitation has been briefly observed in far northwestern
ND from Fortuna to Crosby. Still expect light rain chances to
continue in the far northwest through the night. Nevertheless,
coverage may be a bit more limited tonight than previously
thought, so reduced overall PoPs a bit based on latest radar and
model trends.

UPDATE Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022

Returns are gradually becoming more organized over far
northwestern parts of the state. Although, any rain that may be
falling is presently light in nature. Light rain chances should
persist through the night in the far northwest before more
organized and widespread precipitation chances begin entering from
the west Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022

An upper level trough moving from the Pacific Northwest into the
Northern Rockies this evening into Sunday will bring increasing
chances of precipitation to western parts of the state, beginning in
the far northwest this evening and spreading into southwest North
Dakota by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures are likely to remain warm
enough for the precipitation to fall as rain through Sunday
afternoon. A warm moist air mass being advected poleward and wrapped
around a developing low level cyclone will result in a stark
contrast in high temperatures on Sunday, ranging from around 40 in
the northwest to near 70 in the southern James River Valley. Breezy
conditions can be expected, with northeast winds around 20 mph on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022

A strong storm system will impact the region Sunday evening through
Monday, bringing the first accumulating snow of the season to much
of western North Dakota, and strong northwest winds across the whole
state. There is great uncertainty in the exact location and values
of the highest snowfall totals.

A strong Colorado low will impact the Northern Plains late Sunday
through Monday. Ensemble members appear clustered on a 980-990 mb
MSLP low track from south central South Dakota Sunday evening to
southeast Manitoba Monday morning, with the GEFS displaying a
slightly quicker progression than the ECMWF ensemble. Strong
synoptic scale forcing is expected to result in widespread
precipitation developing from west to east across the state Sunday
evening. Strong Q-vector convergence, low to mid level
frontogenesis, and steep mid level lapse rates could promote locally
heavy precipitation rates. In addition, enough elevated CAPE may be
present for a few thunderstorms from south central into eastern
North Dakota through Monday morning. Generally speaking, enough
shear is present to support a marginal hail threat, but spatial and
temporal confidence in this potential is low. A low level capping
inversion should prevent other summer severe hazards from being a
concern, despite the presence of strong surface vorticity.

The biggest forecast challenge with this storm system is the
thermal profile and its implications on precipitation types.
Ensemble systems appear rather consistent in the thermal profile
sufficiently cooling for a transition to snow as a dominant
precipitation type from west to east Sunday evening through Monday
morning, with a possible mixed hydrometeor phase transition zone.
The questions that remain unanswered include 1) Exactly where
will the heaviest snow fall and 2) How heavy will it be? The 12Z
suite of CAMs would suggest that some parts of the region are
likely to see in excess of 6 inches of snow, though not
necessarily within the borders of North Dakota. The middle 50th
percentile of NBM v4.1 snow accumulations across western North
Dakota ranges from around 1 inch to as high as 7 inches. Global
ensemble systems confirm a reasonable high end outcome of +6
inches, with probabilities for such (using a 10:1 snow-to-liquid
ratio, which is likely a reasonable approximation for this event)
as high as 30 percent in the ECMWF ensemble and 50 percent in the
GEFS, again focused across western North Dakota (along and west of
Highway 85). Interestingly though, these probabilities are in
fact lower than previous ensemble iterations. Additionally, while
it is true that western parts of the state have the highest
probabilities of impactful snow accumulations, particularly in the
northwest, a handful of CAMs simulate pockets of convectively-
enhanced snow accumulations across central North Dakota. But this
is a low probability outcome that would require a cooler thermal
profile than ensemble consensus is advertising.

From an impacts standpoint, the biggest concern is for heavy
snowfall rates causing significant visibility restrictions and snow
to accumulate on roadways. Confidence is increasing that the worst
conditions will occur somewhere in western North Dakota sometime
between Sunday evening and Monday morning, but finer details still
carry a great amount of uncertainty. A Special Weather Statement has
been issued highlight the concerns for this early season event.

Not yet discussed is the wind aspect of this event, which
unsurprisingly carries greater confidence than all other aspects.
Sustained northwest winds as high as 30 mph with gusts near 50 mph
seem to be a reasonable expectation. These values align with the
90th percentile of NBM guidance, which tends to verify better for
gradient driven winds. The strong winds, which are likely to peak in
intensity Monday morning, are not expected to result in blowing snow
due to the heavy wet nature of the snow and warmer ground
temperatures.

Ensemble mean height and vorticity fields show a couple shortwave
passages following the departing low, one on Tuesday and another
Thursday into Friday. These waves appear much weaker and presently
carry low (less than 30 percent) chances for precipitation.
Temperature anomalies do not display a strong signal for either
above or below normal temperatures. The NBM maintains highs
generally in the 40s and 50s, and lows in the 20s and 30s from
Tuesday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

MVFR to IFR stratus will continue to impact much of the north and
portions of the west tonight through Sunday morning. A few light
rain showers will also be possible tonight over the northwest.
Precipitation chances will increase from west to east through the
day on Sunday, with widespread rain and more stratus likely
towards the end of the period. A thunderstorm or two will even be
possible late Sunday across the central and east, but high
uncertainty remains about exact locations at this time. This
system will also bring breezy to windy conditions, especially late
Sunday with winds mainly out of the north or northwest. Snow may
start to mix in across the northwest Sunday night.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...Hollan
LONG TERM...Hollan
AVIATION...ZH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1242 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-240545-
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
1242 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 /1142 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Accumulating snow is likely Sunday evening through Monday. Most
areas across western North Dakota can expect around 1 to 4 inches
of snow, but some locally higher amounts are possible. Strong
northwest winds are also possible Sunday night and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-034>036-042-045-046-240545-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-
1242 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 /1142 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and south central North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Accumulating snow is possible Sunday night through Monday. Most
areas across central North Dakota can expect a trace to 2 inches
of snow, but some locally higher amounts are possible. Strong
northwest winds are also possible Sunday night and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ025-037-047-048-050-051-240545-
Foster-Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1242 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong northwest winds are possible Sunday night and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.