Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
606 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Extrapolating forward motion of the well-organized, intense, and
long-lived line of storms in northeastern SD as of 23 UTC takes
it across southeastern ND through about 03 UTC. Low-level static
stability increases with northward extent, especially toward the
I-94 corridor, but strong low-level mass-field responses suggest
a higher than normal uncertainty in PBL-based thermodynamic fields
in model guidance and objective mesoscale analysis data. This
does yield some uncertainty to tornado risk with northward extent,
but intense low-level shear and the non-zero risk for PBL-based
CIN to be minimized over the James River valley means the threat
of tornadoes certainly exists. Moreover, even if convection tends
toward a more elevated state, DCAPE around 1000 J/kg and intense
0-3-km bulk shear on the order of 40+ kt will continue the risk of
severe winds into ND. Further northwest across central ND, storms
are elevated at a much higher altitude owing to cooling aloft and
a deepening moist layer since our 19 UTC special sounding, but
strong shear and modest MUCAPE support a continued large hail risk
with the more intense updrafts.

Otherwise, for this update we have only blended to observed trends
into the evening. We are maintaining the high wind headlines as-is
at this point, though signals are increasingly suggestive that the
remainder of the High Wind Watch will need to be upgraded to a
warning at some point this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Current surface analysis places low lifting through south central
South Dakota, with warm front stretching to the east. Upper level
analysis places negatively tilted trough over the western CONUS,
with the base attempting to close off over Colorado. Strong south
to southwesterly flow remains over our area. Over our neck of the
woods, showers with a few embedded thunderstorms have been on the
increase over the past few hours in response to the approaching
systems. With plenty of low level moisture in place, a lingering
area of fog has developed over southwest North Dakota. With all
that said, the main show lies ahead.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, low and warm front
continue their northerly lift. Robust convection is expected to
develop over north central into eastern South Dakota, possibly
into far south central and southeast North Dakota late this
afternoon into the early evening. This area has continued to show
very strong deep layer shear (well in excess of 50 kts), elevated
low level shear, and strong instability in excess of 2.5 kJ/kg. As
mentioned for the past few days, all sorts of severe weather
remain in play (large hail, wind, a few tornadoes). As for the
heavy rain threat, the storms may have heavy rainfall rates, but
the good news is that the storms should be quick moving, and not
loitering over an area too long. For our area, focus for the
greatest chances for severe weather remain over the southern James
River Valley, with lesser chances over south central North Dakota
into the upper James River Valley.

As we go through the evening into the overnight, winds will be on
the increase as the low gradually lifts north the area and
deepens, starting to stack up with the upper features. Tight
pressure gradient develops with winds becoming strong, starting
in the southwest and spreading northeast overnight. Feeling quite
confident in strong winds over the southwest, and marginally
confident elsewhere. Therefore, have issued a warning southwest,
watch elsewhere.

On Friday, winds continue through they day, tapering off on the
evening. With the cyclonic flow in places, expect a few showers to
develop, which will taper off in the evening/overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Quiet weather though occasionally windy expected through the
weekend into the beginning of the work week. Active weather
pattern shows up towards mid-week bringing returning rain shower
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions are expected tonight over most
of western and central ND along with widespread showers and storms
as a strong low pressure system impacts the region. Ceilings will
gradually improve from south to north Friday, but MVFR conditions
will likely persist in western and north central ND through Friday
daytime. East-northeast winds this evening will gradually shift to
the west late tonight and Friday morning, with west winds gusting
from 40 to 50 kt area-wide late tonight and Friday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight through
Friday evening for NDZ001-002-009-010-017>023-025-031>037-042-
045>048-050-051.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
NDZ003>005-011>013.

High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM MDT Friday for
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
223 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

NDZ001-002-009-010-017>022-031>034-042-045-131930-
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Sheridan-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Grant-Sioux-
223 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 /123 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon and tonight. A stronger thunderstorm with small
hail is possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

A high wind watch in in effect late tonight through Friday
evening. See www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A high wind watch in in effect through Friday evening. See
www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ023-025-035>037-046-047-131930-
Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-
223 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into this
evening. The main threats from any severe storm will be half-
dollar size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

A high wind watch in in effect late tonight through Friday
evening. See www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A high wind watch in in effect through Friday evening. See
www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon into this
evening. Please call 1-800-247-0212 with any severe weather
reports.

NDZ048-050-051-131930-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
223 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into this
evening. Hail up to tennis ball size in diameter, damaging winds
to 70 mph, and a tornado or two will be possible.

A high wind watch in in effect late tonight through Friday
evening. See www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A high wind watch in in effect late tonight through Friday
evening. See www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon into this
evening. Please call 1-800-247-0212 with any severe weather
reports.

NDZ040-041-043-044-131930-
Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
123 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon and tonight. A stronger thunderstorm with small
hail is possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

A high wind warning is in effect tonight through Friday evening.
See www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A high wind warning is in effect through Friday evening. See
www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ003>005-011>013-131930-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-
223 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon and tonight. A stronger thunderstorm with small
hail is possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A high wind watch in in effect Friday through Friday evening. See
www.weather.gov/bis for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
556 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

NDZ003-011-122330-
Ward ND-Renville ND-
556 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WARD AND
SOUTH CENTRAL RENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 555 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Berthold, or 17
miles west of Minot, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Berthold around 600 PM CDT.
  Foxholm around 610 PM CDT.
  Carpio around 615 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4856 10145 4854 10145 4855 10142 4850 10125
      4805 10162 4820 10184 4862 10169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 195DEG 31KT 4825 10168

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ANGLIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
558 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

NDZ011-021-122330-
Ward ND-McLean ND-
558 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WARD
AND NORTH CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 558 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Garrison,
moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Max and Douglas around 610 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4805 10108 4753 10138 4756 10143 4756 10146
      4767 10174 4812 10150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 195DEG 35KT 4772 10143

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

ANGLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
620 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             2 W HAZEN               47.30N 101.67W
05/12/2022  E1.00 INCH       MERCER             ND   MESONET

            PHOTO OF PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT HAZEN
            2W NDAWN MESONET.

&&

JOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
627 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

NDZ011-012-130000-
McHenry ND-Ward ND-
627 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WARD
AND WEST CENTRAL MCHENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 627 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles southwest
of Sawyer, or 17 miles south of Minot, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sawyer around 640 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Surrey, Granville
and Deering.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4831 10074 4785 10104 4785 10163 4810 10150
      4846 10126 4846 10118
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 205DEG 42KT 4798 10120

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ANGLIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
633 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

NDZ036-037-047-130000-
Kidder ND-Logan ND-Stutsman ND-
633 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KIDDER,
EASTERN LOGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN STUTSMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM
CDT...

At 632 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Streeter, or 20 miles east of Napoleon, moving north at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Streeter around 645 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
North Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4633 9922 4637 9952 4686 9954 4686 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 185DEG 45KT 4651 9934

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SMITH