Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
219 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

The main story for the short term is additional chances for
widespread severe weather from this afternoon into the overnight
hours.

Presently, showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring
along and west of a nearly stationary frontal boundary that is
essentially draped from northeastern ND down through Stutsman,
Logan, and McIntosh counties. The atmosphere is very moist and
unstable this afternoon along on the warm side of the frontal
boundary. Boundary layer dewpoints sit in the upper 60s over the
James River Valley, along with MUCAPE values of over 2000 J/kg,
while 0 to 6 km Bulk Shear values are in excess of 60 kts. This is
a primed environment for very large hail that could be up to two
inches in size during the afternoon. That said, there is some
question as to whether or not convection will blow up over the
James River Valley, or if it will slide east of the forecast area
before rapid intensification begins this afternoon.

The aforementioned nearly stationary frontal boundary will
finally be kicked eastward late this afternoon and evening, thus
becoming a more progressive cold frontal boundary, as a trough
west of the forecast area lifts up through the northern Plains.
As alluded to earlier, this will push ongoing convection eastward.
The consequence is that this trough itself is already forcing
thunderstorms southwest of the forecast area. As it lifts up
through the Dakotas, lines of thunderstorms moving into
southwestern ND later this afternoon will track northeastward
through the evening and into the overnight hours. While the
environment won't be as favorable in western and central ND this
evening compared to parts of central ND this afternoon, there is
still enough instability, shear, and moisture to where severe
thunderstorms are expected.

By Tuesday, the pressure gradient will tighten as surface low
pressure moves off to the northeast. As a result, cooler
temperatures, of which are actually near average for this time of
the year, and gusty winds out of the northwest are expected for
Tuesday. Winds may approach Advisory criteria during the
afternoon. Otherwise, a few showers and thunderstorms may linger
in northern parts of the state during the day, but by then, the
severe threat will have subsided. Conditions will be mostly dry
across the forecast area Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

The period starts out with a lowly amplified ridge moving over the
region, while high pressure resides at the surface over eastern
South Dakota/Nebraska and gradually meanders eastward. As a
result, mostly dry conditions and a warm day on Wednesday,
followed by a hot day on Friday, are expected. By Thursday night,
models are coming into better agreement that a trough off a south
Canadian low will cross through the region. This could bring a
return of shower and thunderstorm activity, as well as a return to
cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Showers and thunderstorms, some potentially severe with large hail
and very strong winds, are possible at all TAF sites this
afternoon and evening. However, exact timing remains uncertain at
most sites and therefore have generally gone with rain showers
and vicinity thunder. Higher confidence exists at KJMS where
thunderstorms already exist to the west and northwest and will
likely pass over by mid-afternoon. Winds will remain relatively
light until Tuesday morning when they become gusty out of the
northwest. However, erratic winds with reduced ceilings and
visibilities are expected with any showers and thunderstorms that
pass over a terminal.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Telken
LONG TERM...Telken
AVIATION...Telken

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
343 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045-212045-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Slope-Hettinger-
Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
343 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 /243 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon. Some of
the storms from mid-afternoon through this evening could be severe
with hail up to ping pong ball size and wind gusts to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any sized hail and damaging
wind gusts to the National Weather Service at 1-800-247-0212.

NDZ025-036-046-212045-
Foster-Kidder-Emmons-
343 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon. Some of
the storms from mid-afternoon through this evening could be severe
with up to two inch hail, wind gusts to 80 mph, and a few
tornadoes possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any sized hail and damaging
wind gusts to the National Weather Service at 1-800-247-0212.

NDZ037-047-048-050-051-212045-
Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
343 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect across southeastern North
Dakota until 11 PM CDT. Hazards will include hail up to two inch
diameter, wind gusts to 80 mph, and a few tornadoes possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any sized hail and damaging
wind gusts to the National Weather Service at 1-800-247-0212.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
235 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE BISMARCK          46.82N 100.75W
06/20/2022  M1.55 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TOTAL RAINFALL FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

HEINERT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
316 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

NDZ046-047-050-202045-
Logan ND-McIntosh ND-Emmons ND-
316 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOGAN,
NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH AND EAST CENTRAL EMMONS COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM
CDT...

At 315 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles west of
Wishek, or 20 miles south of Napoleon, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wishek, Burnstad and Beaver Lake State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4606 9970 4609 9984 4625 9999 4646 9976
      4640 9919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 219DEG 38KT 4622 9976

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
406 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     HAIL             2 NW HAYNES             46.00N 102.50W
06/19/2022  E2.50 INCH       ADAMS              ND   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT FROM EVENING OF JUNE 19.
            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AND VIDEO PASSED
            ALONG. HAIL ESTIMATED BY PUBLIC.

&&

AE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
424 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNW FREDONIA          46.40N 99.15W
06/20/2022  E60 MPH          LOGAN              ND   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

RK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
435 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     JUD                     46.53N 98.90W
06/20/2022  E60 MPH          LAMOURE            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RK

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