Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Bismarck, ND

580 
WWUS83 KBIS 031508
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1008 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.Critical fire weather conditions are expected over much of
western North Dakota this afternoon and evening. South to 
southeasterly winds around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are 
expected, with minimum relative humidity dropping as low as 18 
percent. Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly in dry fuels 
and become difficult to control or suppress.

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-040200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0001.220903T1800Z-220904T0200Z/
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-
Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
1008 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 /908 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...

* WINDS...South to southeast around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Much of Western North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hollan

947 
WWUS83 KBIS 031920
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
220 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.Critical fire weather conditions are expected over much of
western North Dakota this afternoon and evening. South to
southeasterly winds around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are
expected, with minimum relative humidity dropping as low as
18 percent. Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly in dry
fuels and become difficult to control or suppress.

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-040200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220904T0200Z/
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-
Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
220 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 /120 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...

* WINDS...South to southeast around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Much of western North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hollan

336 
WWUS83 KBIS 040141
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
841 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-040245-
/O.CAN.KBIS.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220904T0200Z/
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-
Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
841 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 /741 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

The National Weather Service in Bismarck has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Temperatures will continue to fall this evening, along with
diminishing winds and increasing humidity. Therefore the Red Flag
Warning has been cancelled.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1219 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

Quiet weather continues. No changes needed to the forecast at
this time.

UPDATE Issued at 836 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

Another clear and quiet night is expected tonight. We did end up
lowering temperatures a bit by blending some MOS Based guidance
with our current guidance and NBM 25th percentile lows. With the
surface high over us now, a return southerly flow is expected to
develop overnight in the west, but with such a dry atmosphere and
clear skies, think much of central ND and our normally cool spots
in the west should drop off pretty quick this evening. No changes
to the current Fire Weather Watch. Updated text products will be
transmitted shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

No changes to the going forecast. A few clouds moving through the
area have pushed south into South Dakota. Winds will diminish this
evening as high pressure tracks across the forecast area. Will
take a look a min temperatures with the mid-evening update. No
changes to the current Fire Weather Watch. Updated text products
will be transmitted shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

Temperatures have slowly warmed into the 70s making this afternoon
about 20 degrees cooler then yesterday. Cooler overnight lows are
expected to drop down into the upper 40s across central and
eastern North Dakota and 50s out west. Surface high pressure is
going to move across the international border switching the wind
direction to southerly.

A tight surface pressure gradient will allow winds to increase
Saturday afternoon across the west with already dry conditions.
This will lead to critical fire weather conditions across the
west, read the fire weather discussion for more information. A
strong upper level ridge is going to continue to strengthen over
the Northern Rockies tomorrow. A strong low-level thermal ridge
will intern build over the High Plains with some bleed over into
western North Dakota. Thus temperatures out west are expected to
climb back into the 90s. However, temperatures over the eastern
and central North Dakota tomorrow will range from the upper 70s to
mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

The warm and dry pattern is going to carry over into the long
term. The upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies will tilt
northeastward as a strong shortwave trough dampens the northern
portion of the ridge. This will shift the low level thermal ridge
over to the western Dakotas. Thus warming temperatures into the
upper 80s to upper 90s across the state. The approaching low will
strengthen the surface pressure gradient over central North
Dakota Sunday resulting in breezy southerly winds. The low passes
over North Dakota Monday, some models try to generate precip, but
forecast soundings are very dry making precipiation chances
extremely low. Tuesday morning, a weak front is expected to move
into the region, but temperatures will remain warm in the 90s. A
strong upper level high will continue to meander over western
CONUS keeping temperatures elevated until the end of the week. A
cold front could move into the region Friday bringing precip and
cooler temperatures. The ridging pattern could break down in the
extended leading to a more active pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

VFR conditions through the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of
western North Dakota Saturday afternoon. Therefore, a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for portions of western North Dakota
tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

Saturday, a north south pressure gradient will increase southerly
to southeasterly winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. A
strong low level thermal ridge will bleed into western North
Dakota warming temperatures into the mid 90s. This will impact
the minimum relative humidity dropping as low as 20%. Clear skies
and hot temperatures will help mixing heights increase to support
large plume development if fires start. Overnight recoveries
tonight are going to range from "fair to good" out west bringing
temporary relief to fuels until the late morning hours tomorrow.

Saturday's overnight recoveries will range from poor out west to
fair over central North Dakota. Sunday an upper level low is
expected to move into eastern Montana shifting and strengthening
the north south pressure over central North Dakota. This could
result in more critical fire weather conditions over western and
central portions of the state. Dry and windy conditions Sunday
could be similar to Saturday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-040515-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-
Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 /1108 PM MDT Fri Sep 2 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for possible critical fire
weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Visit weather.gov/bis for
more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-040515-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 /1108 PM MDT Fri Sep 2 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.