High Wind Warning 8, NWS Bismarck, ND

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND

647 
WWUS73 KBIS 052346
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
646 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043-060800-
/O.EXP.KBIS.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.HW.W.0008.221106T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-Bowman-
Including the cities of Marmarth, Medora, Beach, Watford City,
Williston, Crosby, and Bowman
646 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 /546 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ 
SUNDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds around 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Far western North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The high winds may damage roofs, small outbuildings and 
  signs. Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ002-003-010-011-018>021-033-034-041-042-044-045-060800-
/O.CON.KBIS.HW.W.0008.221106T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Burke-Renville-Mountrail-Ward-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Stark-
Morton-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-
Including the cities of Beulah, Hettinger, Solen, Selfridge,
Center, Mott, Powers Lake, Garrison, Hazen, Killdeer, Turtle
Lake, Elgin, New Town, Portal, Mohall, Mandan, Bowbells,
Underwood, Fort Yates, Stanley, New England, Glenburn, Dickinson,
Sherwood, New Leipzig, Columbus, Wilton, Lignite, Washburn,
Minot, Parshall, Halliday, and Carson
646 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 /546 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ 
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of western and central North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The high winds may damage roofs, small outbuildings and 
  signs. Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-060800-
/O.CON.KBIS.HW.W.0008.221106T0900Z-221107T0000Z/
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-
Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Rolette, Towner, Harvey, Carrington,
Fessenden, Edgeley, Velva, Ellendale, Drake, Goodrich, Gackle,
Rolla, Dunseith, Bottineau, Ashley, Bismarck, Tappen, Linton,
Shell Valley, Strasburg, Oakes, Napoleon, Jamestown, St. John,
Mcclusky, Steele, Wishek, Kulm, Rugby, and Lamoure
646 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST 
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...For portions of central North Dakota and the James River 
  Valley.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The high winds may damage roofs, small outbuildings and 
  signs. Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Edwards

485 
WWUS73 KBIS 060200
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
900 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045-061000-
/O.CON.KBIS.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Including the cities of Beulah, Hettinger, Solen, Williston,
Selfridge, Center, Mott, Powers Lake, Garrison, Hazen, Killdeer,
Turtle Lake, Elgin, New Town, Portal, Mohall, Medora, Mandan,
Bowbells, Underwood, Fort Yates, Crosby, Stanley, Bowman, New
England, Glenburn, Marmarth, Dickinson, Sherwood, Beach, Watford
City, New Leipzig, Columbus, Wilton, Lignite, Washburn, Minot,
Parshall, Halliday, and Carson
900 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 /800 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ 
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Western and central North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The high winds may damage roofs, small outbuildings and 
  signs. Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-061000-
/O.CON.KBIS.HW.W.0008.221106T0900Z-221107T0000Z/
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-
Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Rolette, Towner, Harvey, Carrington,
Fessenden, Edgeley, Velva, Ellendale, Drake, Goodrich, Gackle,
Rolla, Dunseith, Bottineau, Ashley, Bismarck, Tappen, Linton,
Shell Valley, Strasburg, Oakes, Napoleon, Jamestown, St. John,
Mcclusky, Steele, Wishek, Kulm, Rugby, and Lamoure
900 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST 
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Central North Dakota and the James River Valley.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The high winds may damage roofs, small outbuildings and 
  signs. Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Edwards

489 
WWUS73 KBIS 060534
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1234 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045-061345-
/O.CON.KBIS.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Including the cities of Watford City, New England, Turtle Lake,
Lignite, Wilton, Selfridge, Fort Yates, New Town, Washburn,
Halliday, Mandan, Medora, Marmarth, Solen, Underwood, Sherwood,
Glenburn, Columbus, Hazen, Killdeer, Garrison, Bowbells,
Williston, Minot, Mott, Beach, New Leipzig, Elgin, Portal,
Carson, Mohall, Hettinger, Powers Lake, Center, Parshall, Beulah,
Bowman, Stanley, Crosby, and Dickinson
1234 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022 /1134 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Western and central North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...The high winds may damage roofs, small outbuildings and 
  signs. Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas along and north of the Highway 2 
  corridor may see periods of reduced visibilities in snow and 
  blowing snow through the morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-061345-
/O.CON.KBIS.HW.W.0008.221106T0900Z-221107T0000Z/
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-
Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Steele, Rolette, Towner, St. John,
Bismarck, Edgeley, Jamestown, Fessenden, Shell Valley, Bottineau,
Oakes, Harvey, Goodrich, Ashley, Dunseith, Mcclusky, Strasburg,
Drake, Rolla, Velva, Wishek, Lamoure, Linton, Napoleon, Tappen,
Carrington, Rugby, Gackle, Ellendale, and Kulm
1234 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EARLY THIS MORNING 
TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Central North Dakota and the James River Valley.

* WHEN...From 3 AM early this morning to 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...The high winds may damage roofs, small outbuildings and 
  signs. Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas along and north of the Highway 2 
  corridor may see periods of reduced visibilities in snow and 
  blowing snow through the morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Hamilton

925 
WWUS73 KBIS 061151
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
551 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-062000-
/O.CON.KBIS.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La
Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Watford City, New England, Turtle Lake,
Rolette, Steele, Towner, Lignite, Wilton, Selfridge, St. John,
New Town, Washburn, Halliday, Mandan, Bismarck, Fort Yates,
Edgeley, Medora, Shell Valley, Bottineau, Underwood, Sherwood,
Fessenden, Glenburn, Jamestown, Columbus, Harvey, Goodrich,
Marmarth, Ashley, Oakes, Solen, Dunseith, Mcclusky, Strasburg,
Drake, Hazen, Rolla, Velva, Wishek, Lamoure, Killdeer, Garrison,
Linton, Bowbells, Williston, Minot, Mott, Beach, New Leipzig,
Napoleon, Elgin, Portal, Carson, Tappen, Mohall, Carrington,
Rugby, Hettinger, Powers Lake, Center, Gackle, Parshall, Beulah,
Bowman, Stanley, Ellendale, Kulm, Crosby, and Dickinson
551 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 /451 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds around 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...Western and central North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...The high winds may damage roofs, small outbuildings and 
  signs. Objects left unsecured outside will be blown around.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas along and north of the Highway 2 
  corridor will see periods of reduced visibilities in snow and 
  blowing snow this morning.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Hamilton

009 
WWUS73 KBIS 061527
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
927 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-062330-
/O.CON.KBIS.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La
Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Mohall, Jamestown, Rugby, Parshall,
Washburn, Goodrich, New Leipzig, Ashley, Lignite, Mcclusky,
Bismarck, Garrison, Tappen, Sherwood, St. John, Rolla, Oakes,
Columbus, Fort Yates, Selfridge, Williston, Solen, Dickinson, New
England, Killdeer, Bottineau, Mandan, Gackle, Turtle Lake,
Rolette, Beulah, Marmarth, Strasburg, Towner, Beach, Watford
City, Glenburn, Carrington, Carson, Lamoure, Ellendale, Halliday,
Powers Lake, Fessenden, Underwood, Bowbells, Hazen, Harvey,
Drake, Shell Valley, Hettinger, Wishek, Wilton, Elgin, New Town,
Center, Portal, Medora, Steele, Stanley, Dunseith, Velva, Linton,
Napoleon, Minot, Edgeley, Mott, Crosby, Kulm, and Bowman
927 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 /827 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds around 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...Western and central North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...The high winds may damage roofs, small outbuildings and 
  signs. Tree branches may be broken and lead to power outages. 
  Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas along and just south of the Highway 2 
  corridor will see periods of reduced visibilities in snow and 
  blowing snow this morning.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

King

406 
WWUS73 KBIS 062026
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
226 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-062130-
/O.CAN.KBIS.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-
Adams-
Including the cities of Mott, Hettinger, Beach, Killdeer, Watford
City, New England, Dickinson, Halliday, Marmarth, Medora, and
Bowman
226 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 /126 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Gusty winds will continue to gradually subside this afternoon across 
portions of western North Dakota. Therefore, the High Wind Warning 
has been cancelled.

$$

NDZ001>005-009>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-070000-
/O.CON.KBIS.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-
Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Bottineau, Wilton, Lignite, Carson,
Rolette, Dunseith, Beulah, Solen, Ashley, Hazen, Washburn, Rolla,
Rugby, Minot, Fort Yates, Parshall, Linton, Towner, Elgin,
Tappen, Crosby, Columbus, Mohall, Powers Lake, Williston,
Bowbells, Kulm, Mcclusky, St. John, Harvey, Oakes, Jamestown,
Lamoure, Selfridge, Wishek, Turtle Lake, Ellendale, Shell Valley,
Bismarck, New Leipzig, Velva, Fessenden, Strasburg, Garrison,
Edgeley, Center, Glenburn, Goodrich, Gackle, Mandan, Steele,
Carrington, Underwood, Portal, Sherwood, New Town, Stanley,
Napoleon, and Drake
226 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 /126 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds around 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest and central North Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...The high winds may damage roofs, small outbuildings and 
  signs. Tree branches may be broken and lead to power outages. 
  Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of reduced visibility in snow and 
  blowing snow could occur from the Turtle Mountains towards the 
  Devils Lake Basin.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

King

292 
WWUS73 KBIS 062334
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
534 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

NDZ001>005-009>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-070045-
/O.EXP.KBIS.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-
Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Stanley, Velva, Fort Yates, Napoleon, New
Town, Fessenden, Mandan, Mcclusky, Carrington, Selfridge,
Williston, Portal, Drake, Harvey, Towner, Wishek, Garrison,
Lamoure, Gackle, Turtle Lake, Edgeley, Bowbells, Carson, Center,
Minot, St. John, Oakes, Beulah, Steele, Underwood, Columbus,
Tappen, Solen, Strasburg, Ellendale, Bottineau, Dunseith, Mohall,
Parshall, Wilton, Bismarck, Crosby, Hazen, Elgin, Rugby, Lignite,
Glenburn, Linton, Goodrich, Jamestown, Rolette, Kulm, Ashley,
Sherwood, Washburn, Rolla, Powers Lake, Shell Valley, and New
Leipzig
534 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 /434 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST/5 PM MST/ THIS 
EVENING...

Gusty winds will continue to diminish this evening.  Therefore, the 
High Wind Warning will be allowed to expire.

$$

Telken

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
101 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Showers continue across western North Dakota as Williston has
received 0.01 of an inch. Showers will continue this afternoon.
Tweaked PoPs and lowered temperatures to match current trends.
High winds are expected across much of North Dakota later this
afternoon and evening.

UPDATE Issued at 936 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

A line a showers continues to progress across eastern Montana
moving into western North Dakota this afternoon. Rain
accumulations look to be light across eastern Montana, thus
significant rainfall is not expected across the region. However,
winds are still expected to pick up this afternoon across western
North Dakota as an upper low accompanied by a strong cold front
moves through the region. Widespread Wind Advisory level winds
will impact western North Dakota this evening. No updates were
made to the current grids, as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Warm advection cloudiness continues to expand eastward across
central ND this morning. However, precipitation continues to lag.
Updated sky cover to bring cloudy conditions quicker through
central ND this morning. Used the latest NBM guidance for pops
which slightly slowed the progression of showers through the west
and central today. Otherwise no changes to the current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

The main forecast concern in the short term period will be wind
headlines this afternoon through Sunday.

Currently, surface low pressure was located in southern Alberta with
a warm front southeast into central Montana. Southerly winds were
increasing across western North Dakota. Skies were mostly clear,
except for a band of warm advection clouds that have moved into
southwest ND from Montana.

For today...A shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest and it's
attendant surface low in Alberta will develop into a closed upper
low and strong surface cyclone over southern Saskatchewan by 00Z
Sunday. Little has changed in the NAEFS/ECMWF SA Table, with this
being a very strong system from the surface up through 70H. Strong
gradient winds will work into western North Dakota this
afternoon. A Wind Advisory was issued on the evening shift for the
far west and this still looks reasonable.

Ahead of the strong winds, a band of warm advection precipitation is
forecast to move across western and central ND. The timing has
slowed a bit from yesterday, thus the potential for freezing rain is
quite low, so we have eliminated this from the forecast and
precipitation is expected to be all rain as it moves across the
forecast area today. The qpf did increase a bit, but still expect
mainly trace amounts up to about 0.05 in. Highs today will be mainly
in the 40s east to 50s west.

Tonight...the strong stacked upper low swings through southern
Saskatchewan into southwest Manitoba through 12 UTC Sunday. This
puts the strongest winds aloft across northern North Dakota through
the evening and overnight hours, which isn't ideal timing for a high
wind event. In addition, along the International Border there is
some upward vertical motion, which would inhibit downward momentum.
This could also produce some isolated to scattered snow showers
in the far northern tier counties. The cold advection is also not
overly impressive with this system. Given all of these negatives,
there are a few things that are worrisome. First is the strength
of the 850 mb winds which are 50 to 55 knots in the north. Also,
although the mixing is sometimes overdone during the overnight, it
is certainly there on the RAP/NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings and
can't be overlooked. There is also a strong isallobaric component
(especially across the north) moving west to east, late tonight
into early Sunday morning. It doesn't quite match up with the
initial wave of strong cold advection, but there will be some cold
advection present during the passage of the fall-rise pressure
couplet. Finally, we can't ignore the ECMWF EFI which has
continued to increase. Most notably is the sustained wind speed
(not gusts) indicating a few areas from southeast Saskatchewan
into north central ND where the EFI is in the 0.99 to 1.0 range,
or as high as it goes, with the tails also increasing up to 2.
Winds gust have also increased across the far northwest and north
central.

Even with the high values on the ECMWF EFI, the timing is a major
concern. If this were during the afternoon it would be a no-brainer
HWW. The other issue is where would you go with a High Watch, and
would this complicate things. We think it might, so we will issue a
a strongly worded Wind Advisory and if winds look to trend stronger,
later shifts can update. It might also be a case where we really
won't know until it occurs upstream a bit, and we can upgrade
accordingly.

There is some concern as to whether the southern tier counties will
reach wind advisory criteria, and most likely they won't through the
entire hazard. But there is enough of a concern due to the strong
winds aloft to keep something going through the night and through
the day Sunday. Therefore the Wind advisory in the far west was
extended through the day Sunday. Additional Wind Advisory segments
were issued for central ND, with areas west of the Missouri
starting this evening and east of the river late tonight, with
the James River Valley starting Sunday morning.

Another concern will be fire weather on Sunday along the far
southern tier counties east of the Missouri River. At this time we
will leave it to the day shift to investigate further. Currently the
minimum humidities area 25 to 30 percent and winds here are
sustained around 30 mph in the morning and early afternoon, but do
diminish a bit mid to late afternoon.

Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 20s in the far north to
the lower 40s in the far south. Winds will diminish Sunday evening
and with clear to partly cloudy skies, overnight lows will drop
into the single digits north to the teens south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

The main forecast challenge for this week is the multiple rounds of
potential rain and snow. As we have been saying for the past few
days, there still remains a great deal of uncertainty through the
week. Cluster analysis indicates a lot of uncertainty all week in
the upper level pattern, mainly on the timing of a trough moving in.
We will also see our coolest high temperatures yet this week along
with breezy winds.

Monday the upper level pattern will most likely shift
to the southwest ahead of a massive trough on the West Coast. A low
looks to develop off the Rockies, moving through Wyoming. This will
be the first possible round of precipitation. The uncertainty here
is the timing and location of the precipitation. As of now, it looks
to start around late morning in the southwest, probably falling as
snow. Winds will be breezy to windy all week from a tightening
pressure gradient and cold air advection from the surface lows
moving through the area.

The next system, as of now, looks to be Wednesday morning through
Thursday morning. Another surface low from the Rockies moves
through, the greatest potential for snow looks to be in the
northwest, while it could be mostly rain in the southeast. Another
area of uncertainty is the transition zone between the rain and
snow. Models are hinting at the possibility of freezing rain in this
zone, which could setup of the central part of the state. The back
side of the low and northern flow aloft will bring much cooler
temperatures into the northwest and central through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

VFR conditions across the region this afternoon and evening until
later tonight when KXWA and KMOT could see temporary MVFR
conditions. Light snow is also possible at KMOT early tomorrow
morning. High winds are expected this evening across into tomorrow
for the state. This could cause some LLWS around 45kts for the
central and eastern portions of the state.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for NDZ001-009-017-031-032-
040-043.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM CDT this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for
NDZ002-003-010-011-018>021-033-034-041-042-044-045.

Wind Advisory from 1 AM CDT to 6 PM CST Sunday for NDZ004-005-
012-013-022-023-035-036-046-047-050.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for NDZ025-037-048-
051.

&&

UPDATE...Johnson
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1253 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043-051900-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-Bowman-
1253 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 /1153 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Wind Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Sunday for far
western North Dakota. See weather.gov/bis for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Wind Advisory is in effect through the day on Sunday. See
weather.gov/bis for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ002-003-010-011-018>021-033-034-041-042-044-045-051900-
Burke-Renville-Mountrail-Ward-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Stark-
Morton-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-
1253 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 /1153 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Wind Advisory is in effect this evening through Sunday for
portions of western and central North Dakota. See weather.gov/bis
for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Wind Advisory is in effect through the day on Sunday. See
weather.gov/bis for more details.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible along and near
the North Dakota and South Dakota border Sunday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-035-036-046-047-050-051900-
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Burleigh-Kidder-
Emmons-Logan-McIntosh-
1253 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Wind Advisory is in effect late tonight through Sunday for
portions of central North Dakota. See weather.gov/bis for more
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Wind Advisory is in effect through the day on Sunday. See
weather.gov/bis for more details.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible along and near
the North Dakota and South Dakota border Sunday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ025-037-048-051-051900-
Foster-Stutsman-La Moure-Dickey-
1253 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Wind Advisory is in effect through the day on Sunday. See
weather.gov/bis for more details.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible along and near
the North Dakota and South Dakota border Sunday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.