Wind Advisory 3, NWS Binghamton, NY

729 
WWUS71 KBGM 060050
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
750 PM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044-070100-
/O.CON.KBGM.WI.Y.0003.220306T1700Z-220307T0200Z/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, 
Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Ithaca, 
Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, and Cortland
750 PM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern Oneida, Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga, 
  Onondaga, Steuben, Schuyler, Tompkins, Madison, Southern 
  Oneida and Cortland counties.

* WHEN...From noon to 9 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

126 
WWUS71 KBGM 060824
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
324 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044-070200-
/O.CON.KBGM.WI.Y.0003.220306T1700Z-220307T0200Z/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, 
Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Ithaca, 
Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, and Cortland
324 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Steuben,
  Schuyler, Tompkins, Madison, Oneida and Cortland counties.

* WHEN...From noon to 9 PM today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

843 
WWUS71 KBGM 061914
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
214 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044-070200-
/O.CON.KBGM.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220307T0200Z/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, 
Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Ithaca, 
Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, and Cortland
214 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Oneida, Cortland, Onondaga, Tompkins, Seneca, 
  Madison, Southern Oneida, Steuben, Yates, Schuyler and 
  Southern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

258 
WWUS71 KBGM 070152
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
852 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044-070300-
/O.EXP.KBGM.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220307T0200Z/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, 
Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Ithaca, 
Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, and Cortland
852 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

Wind gusts have decreased this evening. A few stronger gusts of
35-45 mph are possible into the overnight but these gusts will 
continue to decrease across the area. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1250 PM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be dry with temperatures warming into the 40s.
On Sunday, it will be windy with temperatures well into the
60s. A weak frontal system will bring light rain showers to the
area late tonight into Sunday. The next round of rain arrives
Monday and Monday night and could combine with snowmelt to cause
river rises.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
934 AM update...
No major changes made to the near term forecast. However,
looking at Monday, some of the latest model guidance arriving
this morning continue to hint at an ever-trending shift
northward of the warm front and subsequent swath of rain on
Monday. Will continue to monitor this event.

630 am update...
Minor changes to better match current conditions.

3 am update...

Big weather changes from dry and near normal today to showers,
windy, and 60s Sunday. Minor changes made to the previous
forecast.

This morning got colder than forecasted with many location east
of I81 in CNY getting into the single digits. Adjusted hourly
and min temperatures down this morning. High clouds have arrived
ahead of a dry warm front. Temperatures will recover nicely into
the 40s this afternoon. An axis of high pressure is now on the
coast. The pressure gradient and winds will increase between
this departing high and approaching low in the Midwest. Surface
winds will only gradually increase today and tonight. Winds
tonight in CNY will be 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Sunday
afternoon will be the windiest as a front drops southeast late
in the afternoon. Low level winds above 50 mph could mix down
to the surface with any showers.

Precipitation stays north of the area this afternoon and
evening. This is good since low temperatures in the western
Catskills and northeast Oneida county will be right around
freezing in the evening before rising slowly in the overnight.
For these reasons removed the chance of freezing rain in our far
east late tonight.

Sunday morning the rain comes in quickly but the rain also moves
out quickly midday. Most locations will get less than a quarter
of an inch of rain. Oneida County may approach half an inch.
This combined with snow melt will cause rivers and streams to
rise. Most of the area will lose all of its snow pack. The
exception could be northern Oneida County which has the most
snow. This runoff shouldn't be enough to cause problems Sunday.

The bigger problem will be the winds. The pressure gradient
further tightens as a surface low moves northeast through the
western Great Lakes and into Quebec. This low will drag a
surface front from the northwest into the area late Sunday.
Sunday afternoon winds from the Finger Lakes to the western
Mohawk Valley will be 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph.
Weak shallow convection with the front is possible which could
help mix down stronger winds. Model soundings showing some
instability for our northeast counties especially Utica/Rome.
Shear is extremely high at 80 to 100 kts which will hinder
organization. Models showing a broken line of convection with
the front late afternoon. The strongest cells are along the NYS
thruway corridor from Syracuse to Utica in our area. For now
left thunder out but there is a small chance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM Update...
Frontal boundary will stall out south of the area on Sunday
night, with a few showers lingering over the Mohawk Valley and
Susquehanna headwaters, moving out after 9 or 10 PM. We'll see a
brief break in precip chances until the wee hours of Monday
morning, as the first in a series of waves interacts with the
stalled out front, bringing rain back into the region from the
southwest. By dawn, the leading edge of rainfall will likely be
just a little southwest of a Penn Yan-Bing-Hayley PA line,
quickly overspreading the region through the morning hours.
Models have trended further north with the stationary front
(sound familiar?), particularly with the NAM and Canadian models
which even suggest some dry slotting over NE PA and the
Catskills during the day Monday.

How far north the front sets up will have some impact on precip
type, though the range of possibilities here has narrowed such
that the risk of higher impact winter wx is greatly reduced.
Most likely scenario is we'll start off with a mix of rain and
snow across the higher elevations around the Finger Lakes,
between Cortland and Syracuse, and into southern Madison
County... mostly rain across the Thruway and Mohawk Valley...
and some snow in northern Oneida County north of the Thruway.
Highest elevations in the aforementioned areas may see an inch
of two of snow accumulate, with northern Oneida County most
favored, before changing to rain by late morning.

The bigger concern over the frontal placement is where the
rainfall max will be focused. NAM and Canadian are furthest
north, with 0.75 to 1.00 inches across the Thruway, and 1 to
1.50 inches across northern Oneida County through Tuesday
morning. These same models reduce the QPF to around 0.5 to 0.75
inch over the Catskills. This would shift the focus for
headwater flooding northward, into an area with much higher
snow pack and snow water equivalent values. NOHRSC analysis has
widespread 2 to 4 inch SWE over northern Oneida County, with
isolated 4 to 6 inch amounts. More serious flooding would result
if this northward trend continues.

The GFS and ECMWF have also shifted northward, but focus the
heaviest QPF of 1 to 1.50 inches south of the Thruway and across
the upper Chemung, Tioughnioga/Upper Chenango, and Upper
Susquehanna basins. SWE values are generally lower in these
areas, and with the warmer weather and breezy conditions Sunday,
we could reduce the pockets of higher SWE considerably before
adding rainfall to the recipe.

For now, trended the QPF north, not too dissimilar to the GFS,
but with higher amounts (just under 1 inch) spread further
north. Watches may be necessary later today after coordination
with the RFCs with a hopefully more honed-in QPF forecast.

Colder air will work into the area on Tuesday, as steadier
precip moves out. Some lake effect snow showers are likely with
light accumulations across the Finger Lakes and Thruway
corridor possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM Update...

A brief period of quieter/dry weather for Tuesday night into
early Wednesday, then back to unsettled conditions. A weak
clipper system may bring a light snow shower to northern areas
Wednesday afternoon, while a weak coastal low looks to move
offshore, bringing light rain very close to NE PA and the
Catskills.

Precip chances increase later in the week, particularly Friday
as a low pressure system approaches the Great Lakes, and another
coastal low threatens to develop. Ensembles continue to paint a
wide range solutions, and keep delaying the best chances for
precip, further reducing forecast confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at the surface off the coast and rising heights
aloft will keep weather conditions quiet and mostly VFR
flight conditions in place through this evening. A surge of low
level moisture from the mid Atlantic will move in and impact AVP
after 06Z tonight with mainly MVFR ceilings. A weak cold front
will move in from the west Sunday morning and bring a brief
period of MVFR ceilings and rain showers. Behind the front
ceilings should start to lift back to low-end VFR just before
18Z...and winds will increase out of the southwest.

Low level wind shear will develop this evening and persist
through most of the morning hours Sunday. The winds at roughly
2 kft will be from the S/SW around 40-50 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon and evening...An weak like of showers and
storms are possible from around RME/SYR Sunday afternoon, which
should move to the east during the evening hours.

Monday and Monday night...Ceiling and visibility restrictions
likely due to rain and fog during the day...and then snow
mixing in/changing Monday night.

Tuesday...Chance of lake effect snow showers and
restrictions...mainly in CNY.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
350 PM update...
There is a threat of minor flooding across portions of central
NY and northeast PA Monday and Tuesday next week. The
combination of warm temperatures leading to snowmelt and a
couple shots of rain will lead to some of the more sensitive
headwater locations of the Susquehanna and Delaware basins
potentially reaching minor flood.

The latest NOHRSC analysis shows some higher terrain areas
still having around 1-2 inches of snow water equivalent...mainly
the southern Catskills, the Allegheny plateau, and into the
hills south of Syracuse. There still appears to be 2-4 inches of
liquid still into parts of northern Oneida County as well. It
is likely that a good portion of this snowpack, especially south
of Syracuse, will melt during this time with temperatures above
40 deg for 36 hrs...and topping out in the 50s and lower 60s on
Sunday.

We still have a good amount of uncertainty with respect to the
rainfall forecast late this weekend and into early next week,
but all indications continue to point to a swath of rain from
around central PA into east-central NY. Some areas could see up
to or just over an inch of rain from Sunday through Monday
night. The rain is expected to come in a couple rounds with the
first very spotty Sunday and Sunday night. The second round
will arrive on Monday into Monday night and potentially be a bit
heavier. The combination of the melting of a good portion of
the snowpack and the rainfall will produce river rises and some
flooding within and nearest to the natural floodplain of the
rivers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC
NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...BJT/TAC
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
533 AM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-PAZ038-061045-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Tioga-Broome-Bradford-
533 AM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Southwest winds will gust 40 to 50 mph at times Sunday, with a few
higher gusts possible.

Very warm temperatures will lead to snow melt in places, with
moderate rainfall expected Monday. This combination will lead to
rises on area rivers, with minor flooding possible. Where the axis
of heaviest rainfall occurs, expected to over 1 inch, is still
uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ046-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-061045-
Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
533 AM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Southwest winds will gust 35 to 45 mph at times Sunday.

Very warm temperatures will lead to snow melt in places, with
moderate rainfall expected Monday. This combination will lead to
rises on area rivers, with minor flooding possible. Where the axis
of heaviest rainfall occurs, expected to over 1 inch, is still
uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.