Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
325 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue into the
evening, mainly in south central NY and northeast PA. A couple
of the stronger storms could contain small hail and isolated
damaging wind gusts. Saturday into Sunday, the heat returns with
highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and heat index values
in the mid to upper 90s, especially for urban valleys.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 pm update...

Isolated thunderstorms and showers continue across south central
NY and northeast PA this afternoon. The thunderstorms have heavy
rain and gusty winds, and maybe small hail. A short wave and
weak surface front are slowly moving through. With temperatures
from the mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoints around 60, there is
plenty of low level instability and steep lapse rates. Shear is
around 25 kts. Precipitable water is around 1.25 inches.
Convection will slowly diminish this evening as heating and
forcing wane.

For the overnight, good radiational cooling will occur with
clear skies and calm to light winds. Fog is likely wherever it
rains. Valley fog will still have a good chance of developing in
the typical valley spots in the upper Susquehanna and upper
Delaware river basins. Lows in the low to mid 60s.

Saturday will be warmer than today with highs from the upper 80s
to the low 90s. Urban valleys will be in the mid 90s. Dewpoints
will again be in the lower 60s making it fell warmer. Heat
indexes will likely stay just below advisory criteria of 95 in
NY and 100 in PA. once again. Another short wave could set off
more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The
best chance will be in the central southern tier and Finger
Lakes of CNY.

Saturday night will warm and sticky with dewpoints and low
temperatures in the 60s. In the evening diurnal convection dies.
A few showers may move into the Finger Lakes towards sunrise
well ahead of a slow moving system coming into the area Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 PM update...
Main concerns in the short term are focused on the hot and
humid conditions expected Sunday...and the showers and
thunderstorms expected to push through the region late Sunday
and into Monday with slightly cooler temperatures.

A surface low will be lifting to the east/northeast from the central
Great Lakes into Quebec on Sunday with a trailing cold front
sweeping eastward into the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic
region. Ahead of this cold front a very warm and humid air mass is
expected to develop and produce temperatures into the 90s for much
of central NY and ne PA. The warmest air will be felt throughout the
valleys and across the lake plain of the northern Finger Lakes where
mid to upper 90s are possible. Surface dew points are expected to
rise into the mid to upper 60s in the morning hours, and then as the
boundary layer deepens through the afternoon, mix out into the lower
to mid 60s during the peak heating of the day. Corresponding heat
index values will top out in the mid 90s to around 100. Heat
Advisories will likely be needed on Sunday.

The environment will be quite unstable by the afternoon with ML CAPE
values 1000-2000 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates. Deep layer
shear will be on the rise through the day as the upper trough and
surface cold front approach from the west. There is a marginal
threat for severe thunderstorms on Sunday given the unstable air
mass, deep shear, broad large scale lift, and sufficient moisture
all overlapping over the eastern Great Lakes. The timing of the
front/upper trough and the amount of inhibition from morning clouds,
along with relatively shallow mid level lapse rates may hinder the
potential for deep convection leading to severe storms.

There is expected to be a swath of rain with this incoming cold
front late Sunday into Monday. Some areas could see a decent amount
of rain. The initial push of rain may come as more scattered
convection, but the second round of showers and embedded weak storms
late Sunday into Monday may arrive in the form of more
stratiform/steady rain. A corridor of deep moisture will phase with
an axis of warm air advection and isentropic lift that should induce
a more steady widespread rainfall. Amounts will range from from a
half to 1.25 inches. A few isolated locations could see 1.5 to 2
inches by sunset Monday. Most areas are running 1-3 inches below
normal for the past 30 days, so hopefully this rain will provide
some needed relief.

The presence of clouds and rain on Monday will keep temperatures in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
215 PM update
A few lingering showers and weak storms may be hanging around parts
of the Poconos and southern Catskills Monday night, but by late
Tuesday morning most of the region will be clear of precipitation.
Dry air will start to advect in from the west on Tuesday which will
act to scatter out most of the clouds. A flat ridge pattern takes
shape and continues into early Wednesday with quiet weather expected
and temperatures gradually warming back into the mid to upper 80s on
Wednesday after seeing some upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday. A
weakly amplified upper short wave will approach from the west late
Wednesday and Thursday, and act to trigger the next round of showers
and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 pm Update...

Mostly VFR through 18z Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms have
formed but the coverage will be isolated. Have a tempo for
showers at AVP 21 to 24z. Sites in south central NY will
probably have one or two showers but restrictions not expected.

Late tonight valley fog will form. ELM could have restrictions
between 08 to 12z, especially if it rains towards sunset.

Saturday isolated showers possible again after 17z.

Southwest to west winds at 5 to 10 kts into the evening. Tonight
winds light and variable to calm. Saturday southwest winds will
be 5 to 10 kts again.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning...Mainly VFR; slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms for NY terminals starting
Saturday afternoon.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...Possible restrictions in
showers and thunderstorms. Most likely time Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Monday night through Wednesday...mainly VFR. Possible valley
fog at ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...TAC

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