Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
359 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving through with the
best chance for severe weather across Northeast Pennsylvania and
the Catskills into the early evening hours. Less humid and
slightly cooler weather expected Wednesday into the end of the
week with a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

355 PM Update

Was able to cancel the severe thunderstorm watch early for
Oneida, Madison, Cortland, Chenango, Broome, Tioga, Chemung,
and Tompkins counties...drier air is filtering into these
counties with sfc dew points mainly falling back into the
50s...therefore am thinking that this should inhibit any
additional convective development in this region. The Watch
continues further south and east across the western Catskills
and NE PA where additional thunderstorms are expected.

245 PM Update

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for a good portion
of the area until 7 PM.

Scattered thunderstorms have developed and are moving across CNY
and NE PA at this time. A few of the storms (as expected) have
been strong to severe with gusty winds observed. The main
potential for severe weather into the late afternoon and evening
should be from about Towanda--Binghamton--Oneonta south and east
into NE PA and Catskills. The storms look to move out of our
forecast area by around sunset...but much sooner for much of
CNY. We may be able to cancel some of the watch counties
earlier than 7 PM as storms move out.

Currently, the SPC meso analysis is showing 1000-1500 J/Kg of
MLCAPE, LIs to -5, effective layer shear of 45-55kts and a
corridor of DCAPE between 1000-1200 J/Kg. This is allowing for a
favorable set up to produce a few isolated supercells and small
line segments, with the main threats being gusty to damaging
winds (isolated).

Heading into the later evening hours things should generally
quiet down with just a few lingering, isolated, showers
expected after midnight. Overnight lows dip down into the upper
50s to lower 60s and there could be some patchy valley fog.

Wednesday features weak west-northwest flow and generally
dry/partly sunny conditions to start. Later in the day a weak
trough approaches from the west, and it looks to initiate
isolated to scattered showers & t'storms...especially west of
Binghamton across the Central Southern Tier and Finger Lakes
region. By late afternoon and evening the shower & t'storm
activity slowly translates east; therefore maintained slight
chance to low end chance PoPs to the I-81 corridor. There will
be decent deep layer shear, around 40 kts...but lower
instability... so we are not expecting anything strong or
severe Wednesday. Expect lower sfc dew points in the mid-50s to
lower 60s by afternoon...and forecast highs will be in the upper
70s to mid-80s. Heading into Wednesday night the shortwave
trough moves through the area and will keep a chance for a
shower or storm in the forecast, along with partly cloudy
conditions. Seasonably mild with low in the mid-50s to lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Not much in
the way of changes to the short term period of the forecast.
Upper trough will remain overhead during the day Thursday, but
limited moisture will be available. Most likely scenario is for
a few isolated to scattered diurnal showers/thunderstorms, with
the most likely time frame being during the peak heating hours
of the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish after
sunset as high pressure builds in from Canada Thursday night
providing a dry end to the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes have been made to the long term portion of the
forecast. High pressure will be over the region Friday bringing
a shot of slightly cooler and dry air to the region. Saturday
will also be dry, but the chance for showers will return on
Sunday. Enough moisture with increasing dewpoints brings a
muggier feel to the area Sunday into Monday. A low chance for a
few showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon.
Shower chances will increase on Monday ahead of a weak cold
front and deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the
Atlantic ocean.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period. There are isolated to scattered showers & t'storms this
afternoon into the early evening, mainly from KBGM--KRME south
and east toward KAVP. These showers & storms could produce
brief, IFR restrictions and gusty/erratic winds. Included a
tempo for this potential at KBGM and KAVP.

Later this evening conditions should gradually clear from
northwest to southeast; but there could still be an isolated
shower.

Models are hinting at some low stratus developing behind the
front with patchy fog in river valleys early Wednesday morning.
ELM and RME will have a chance for MVFR conditions but confidence
is not high enough to put it in the TAF this far out. Any low
clouds lift and scatter back to VFR by mid to late morning
Wednesday, with mainly dry weather into the midday hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday Night...Mainly VFR, but brief
restrictions in showers and thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon and early evening.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR expected at this time.

Sunday...Mainly VFR, but there is a chance for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MWG
LONG TERM...MPK/MWG
AVIATION...JTC/MJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
350 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

NYZ046-057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-132000-
Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
350 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about severe weather to the NWS while following local,
state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-132000-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Tioga-Broome-
350 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
347 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE NEW KINGSTON       42.25N 74.65W
07/12/2022                   DELAWARE           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NEW
            KINGSTON MOUNTAIN RD AND HAROLD ROBERTS RD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
355 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E HAMDEN              42.20N 74.97W
07/12/2022                   DELAWARE           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON ROAD NEAR COUNTY RD 2 AND W
            TERRY CLOVE RD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
410 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW ONEONTA           42.45N 75.08W
07/12/2022                   OTSEGO             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BOX ELDER TREE DOWN IN BACKYARD, DAMAGING
            CHAIN LINK FENCE.

&&

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