Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
332 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front moves through tonight bringing a round of showers
and thunderstorms. High pressure builds into the region Monday
and Tuesday with drier weather. Our next low pressure system and
frontal boundary move through Thursday and Friday with our next
chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

A broken band of showers and thunderstorms has developed late this
afternoon ahead of a cold frontal boundary which has moved into
western NY. Cloud cover has moved into portions of Central New York
as well which has limited the overall instability. However, enough
steepening of the lapse rates should be enough for some storms
to have gusty to damaging winds as they move eastward. A few
reports of small hail have come in with a few thunderstorms near
Bradford county as well. These storms have been fairly quick
movers so top QPF amounts of 1/4th-1/2 inch seem reasonable.

Temperatures will drop off fairly quickly after the cold frontal
passage. The frontal passage will also be accompanied by a wind
shift from southwest to northwest. The northwest flow will
bring in additional clouds which look to linger throughout most
of the light. With the colder airmass moving in temperatures
should fall into the 40's tonight.

Clouds should gradually break up Monday as high pressure builds into
the region. Temperatures look to warm into the 60's as well. A clear
cool night with light winds also known as a favorable setup for
radiational cooling. Temperatures should fall down into the
40's again and would not be surprised to see some valley
locations fall into the upper 30's. We will be monitoring the
potential for some patchy valley fog as well around sunrise
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
1230 PM Update...

A ridge of high pressure will result in mostly dry conditions across
the region for this period. Temperatures start to trend warmer
Tuesday, climbing into the upper 60s and low 70s. Partly sunny skies
are also expected. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 40s to
low 50s.

More widespread 70s are likely on Wednesday, though some higher
elevations may fall just shy of 70. A stacked low will move across
the upper Mississippi River Valley and into the Great Lakes region
during the day, bringing increasing sky cover. Models are starting
to trend drier with the ridge still in place on Wednesday. Though
there will be a low chance for showers across CNY as a weak
shortwave could kick off some isolated showers ahead of this system.
A warm front will lift north Wednesday night, possibly triggering
some additional showers. With some model guidance trending drier,
NBM PoPs were reduced slightly. Overall, PoPs with this update are
quite a bit lower than the previous forecast. Temperatures overnight
are expected to be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 PM Update...

This low pressure system will continue to move northward
Thursday as an upper level trough approaches the region. As the
low lifts northward, it will push a cold front eastward. Some
scattered showers and storms may be possible ahead of the front
during the day on Thursday. The best chances for showers and
storms will be late Thursday and during the overnight hours as
the front passes through. The front moves out of the region
Friday morning and dry air pushes into the region, bringing dry
conditions to portions of the region. Though, there is still a
chance for lingering showers Friday and Friday night, mainly
north of the Twin Tiers, from wrap around moisture as this
system moves further north and east. Winds will also be gusty
both Thursday and Friday with a tighter pressure gradient
present near the surface.

High pressure will build into the region Saturday, bringing dry
conditions and pushing out any lingering showers that may remain.
The is some uncertainty for the second half of the weekend due to
timing differences with the next system. For now, precipitation
chances were capped at slight chance considering this is next system
is a week out.

Temperatures will be around average for this period, trending
slightly cooler into the weekend. Temperatures rebound in the second
half of the weekend and will be a bit warmer than average as 80s
will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR till the arrival of potential showers and thunderstorms in
the 18-22Z range. Coverage will not be uniform across our area
and some TAF sites may miss out completely. With that mind,
continued with TEMPO groups to give a best two hour window for
the highest chance of a thunderstorm. Southwest winds will
become more westerly and even northwesterly tonight with the
passage of a cold front. A couple wind gusts around 20 knots
can not be ruled out either.

Indications are present for a stratus deck of 1,500-2,500 feet
to build into all TAF sites this evening. Some uncertainty is
present on how fast this deck moves in and the timing of the
ceiling breaking up Monday morning. VFR expected after 13Z
Monday though with continued northwesterly winds around 10
knots.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR, but possible
restrictions with stratus decks advancing northwestward through
at least KAVP Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Possible showers
later Wednesday through Friday too.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MWG

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