Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
416 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around into this
evening under mostly cloudy skies. A low pressure system will
then move in late tonight through Monday with a more areawide
likelihood for showers and storms. Some showers and thunderstorms
linger into Tuesday as the system gradually passes through the
region. Dry weather returns mid-week along with warming temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM Update

A mid and upper level trough continues to slowly spin off to the
east from the Great Lakes region at this time. Upper level
diffluence is evident out ahead of this trough, now moving into
portions of Central NY and NE PA. A shortwave disturbance on the
front side of the upper level trough has initiated a cluster of
showers and embedded thunderstorms across Central PA north into
Central NY, mainly along west of I-81. The most favorable
environment for thunderstorms to develop and organize has now
shifted north, across the Syracuse metro and NY Thruway
corridor...where MLCAPE is around 1500 J/Kg and effective layer
shear is pushing 30 kts...this area will need to be watched
closely for any stronger storms to develop over the next few
hours. Otherwise,these showers and storms will continue to move
slowly east into the early evening hours, but are forecast to
gradually weaken, especially across the Twin Tiers and NE PA
where it is much more stable. The next disturbance then rotates
into the area from the south-southeast late this evening into
the overnight, bringing deeper moisture and PWATs around 1.7
inches. Some of the guidance is showing a meso-low developing
along the NJ coast, which may act to slow and pivot some of the
rain showers/storms in a band across NE PA, north through the
Twin Tiers...this area of showers and embedded t'storms then
moves north across the rest of CNY late tonight. 6 hour QPF
looks to average 1/2" to 1" across much of NE PA late tonight,
fading to less than 1/3" across CNY. Otherwise, tonight will
feature humid, mostly cloudy conditions with areas of fog also
possible. Lows only dip down into the mid-60s.

Active, unsettled weather will continue on Monday as the upper
level trough moves into Western NY/ PA. A deep southerly flow
will continue to advect moisture into the area, and any breaks
in the clouds will allow for increasing daytime heating/instability.
MLCAPE looks to range from 500-1000 J/Kg in the afternoon, with
numerous t'storms developing. Storm motions will be rather slow,
around 10-20 mph south to north...and there could be some
backbuilding storms as well. With PWATs still around 1.6 to
1.7" and warm cloud layer around 11k ft there will be a marginal
threat of excessive rainfall and perhaps some isolated hydro
issues (ponding of water on roadways, underpasses, urban and
other low lying locations). 12 hour rainfall amounts look to
average between 0.50 and 1.00" across the region; with locally
higher amounts possible in heavier or more persistent
thunderstorms. Otherwise, Monday will feature areas of fog and
low clouds in the morning, with skies remaining mainly cloudy
through the day...high temperatures only reach the mid-70s to
around 80 and with dew points in the mid to upper 60s it will
feel quite humid.

The showers look to gradually taper off Monday night, as
instability wanes. However, the slow moving upper level low will
be directly overhead. This will keep conditions cloudy with
chances for showers in the forecast. Rainfall amounts will be
lighter overnight; mainly less than 1/4 inch expected. It will
still be humid with lows in the low to mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
405 PM Update:

With the trough still over the area on Tuesday, expect
numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop especially late
morning through late afternoon timeframe, aided by peak
heating. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected
along with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to quickly wind down Tuesday night
with high pressure moving in. Partially clearing skies are
expected with low temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. May also
see some patchy valley fog late at night.

High pressure will be in control Wednesday and Wednesday night,
bringing mostly sunny/clear skies. An isolated pop-up afternoon
shower or thunderstorm will be possible, but the majority of
the region should remain dry with mid-level ridging in place.
Highs are expected to be several degrees warmer, in the upper
70s to mid 80s. Valley fog looks probable Wednesday night with
the surface high overhead providing light winds. Low
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
410 PM Update:

No significant changes were made to the long term forecast with
this afternoon's update.

High pressure looks to keep conditions dry on Thursday, before
forecast uncertainty increases a bit by Friday with the approach
of the next weak cold front. Timing of this front remains
highly uncertain this far out, as is to be expected. For now
stuck closely with the NBM (National Blend of Models), which
results in slight chance to low-end chance PoPs on Friday for
most areas. Saturday and Sunday look mainly dry at this time,
with high pressure settling across the region. If the timing of
the frontal boundary slows down or stalls there could still be a
stray shower or storm, but this potential looks very low at
this time. High temperatures will be above average, well into
the mainly in the 80s each day in the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions for the rest of today and into this
evening. However, a cluster of thunderstorms is moving north out
of central PA at this time and it could impact several of the
TAF sites. Highest confidence for showers and t'storms, with
associated restrictions is at ELM; between 18-22Z...therefore a
tempo for TSRA was added. Also moderate confidence that shra and
tsra will reach ITH between about 19-23z...with a tempo also
added here. Low to moderate confidence based on the latest CAM
models that shra and tsra will also reach SYR between about
20-23z...and considering the increasing instability out there
this afternoon went ahead and included a tempo here as well.
For BGM and RME lower confidence in tsra, but still enough to
include a tempo for SHRA; mainly between about 21-01z this
evening here. Model guidance was in agreement that the showers
and thunderstorms would remain west of AVP for the remainder of
today, with showers potentially arriving after 03z this evening
here.

Late this evening and into tonight there is high confidence that
increasing moisture and rain showers will bring lower CIGs and
vsbys to most of the area. Expecting MVFR to fuel alternate CIGS
to advect in from south to north rather quickly, between about
22/05-08z...expect more toward 22/08-10z up north at SYR & RME.
Toward daybreak and into Monday morning expect widespread fuel
alternate to even IFR CIGS in rain/mist...with mainly MVFR VSBY
expected...but these could occasionally be lowered in any
steadier or heavier rain showers. Only gradual improvement back
toward MVFR CIGs is expected by midday/early afternoon
Monday...however additional showers and t'storms are then
forecast to develop areawide.

Expect south-southeast winds 5-10 knots with some higher gusts
especially in vicinity of any showers/storms the rest of today,
tonight and right into Monday.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon and Monday night...Primary wave of rain and
thunderstorms with restrictions likely, as a low pressure system
moves into the region.

Tuesday...Some showers and possible thunderstorms lingering,
with associated restrictions, as system finishes passing.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Low chance for pop up showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MJM/MDP
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...BJG/MJM
LONG TERM...BJG/MJM
AVIATION...MJM/MDP

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