Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Binghamton, NY

026 
WWUS81 KBGM 291542
RFWBGM

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1142 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022

PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-292345-
/O.CON.KBGM.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220430T0200Z/
Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-
Pike-Southern Wayne-
1142 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL COUNTIES
IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* Affected Area... Northeastern Pennsylvania

* Timing...Until 10 PM Friday.

* Winds...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 to 19 percent.

* Temperatures...Highs between 52 to 62 degrees this afternoon.

* Impacts...Low Relative Humidity and increased winds will allow 
  fuels to dry out. As a result conditions are expected to 
  become favorable for fire spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Kistner

256 
WWUS81 KBGM 291937
RFWBGM

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
337 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022

PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-300200-
/O.CON.KBGM.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220430T0200Z/
Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-
Pike-Southern Wayne-
337 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL
COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* Affected Area... Northeastern Pennsylvania

* Timing...Until 10 PM Friday.

* Winds...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 to 19 percent.

* Temperatures...Highs between 52 to 62 degrees this afternoon.

* Impacts...Low Relative Humidity and increased winds will allow 
  fuels to dry out. As a result conditions are expected to 
  become favorable for fire spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Kistner

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
203 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear skies, dry conditions and gusty winds will remain across
the area today. Expect chilly nighttime temperatures, dipping
below freezing the next several nights; with mild seasonable
temperatures during the day. A gradual warm up through the
weekend is expected as high pressure builds in from the west.
Next chance for rain showers arrives Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM Update...

The main concern continues to be fire weather, with a very dry
airmass and breezy conditions before sunset and again on Friday.
Please see the fire weather discussion below for more
information.

Temperatures are quickly dropping back through the 30s under
clear skies this evening, with dewpoints generally in the teens.
Temperatures should plummet into the mid and upper 20s by the
early hours of Friday with dry air, clear skies, and light winds
contributing to ideal radiational cooling conditions.

Upper level low remains off the coast of Maine on Friday with a
ridge trying to build into the area from the west during the day.
The low is very slowly drifting to the east, which will allow warmer
air from the ridge to edge its way into the area. 850mb temps
increase from around -6C on Thursday to -1C on Friday. With dry air
and clear skies overhead, temperatures will be able to get into the
mid 50s across most of the area with upper 50s in the valleys across
the Southern Tier and NEPA. Guidance was a little cool on
surface temps based on warmer 850mb temps moving in so NBM 90th
percentile was blended in to bump them up. NW flow will remain
over the area, with the stronger winds along and east of I-81.
Sustained winds are expected to be between 10-20mph with gusts
up to 30mph, especially across the Catskills.

Friday night is much of the same as Thursday night, albeit with
temps not dropping as low due to a slightly warmer airmass overhead.
Temperatures will dip into the upper 20s to low 30s across the area
with mid 30s in the Wyoming Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 PM update...

High pressure over the area Saturday will provide another sunny dry
day. Temperatures will be warmer but still below average. High mid
and upper 50s for most but low 60s in NEPA river valleys. Afternoon
winds of 10 mph won't be as strong as today and Friday.

Sunday will probably be dry too but with increasing clouds late. A
cutoff low over the central Plains weakens and lifts northeast this
weekend. Rain ahead of a front is expected to move into western NY
and western PA Sunday afternoon. The model trend continues to be
slow down the rain coming in. Low temperatures will be from the
upper 20s to the mid 30s. South winds will push high temperatures
into the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM update...

Little change to the previous forecast. Multiple systems move
through but none appear strong. Temperatures close to average for
this period.

Late Sunday starts with a large ridge that moves east allowing a
north to south band of rain to move through Sunday night and Monday.
This is with an occluded front connected to the low lifting
northeast through the western Great Lakes.

Weak ridging comes in Monday night into Tuesday with mostly dry
weather before another low lifts through the Great Lakes Tuesday
night. The track is further south. A strong cold front comes through
Wednesday morning. If convection moves in late Tuesday with max
heating there could be thunderstorms.

Thursday the models vary greatly. Rain with next system Thursday
with the GFS to Friday morning with the Euro. Followed the National
Blend of Models.

High temperatures mostly in the 60s but some 70s possible Tuesday.
Low temperatures mostly in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions with clear skies will persist through the
forecast period. Northwest winds will diminish to around 5 to
10 knots early this morning. Deep mixing will bring a return to
breezy conditions starting around 14z this morning and
continuing through the late afternoon hours.Though overall they
will be a bit lighter than yesterday, we are still expecting
peak gusts generally around 25 knots. Winds diminish quickly by
around 23z, and fall under 5 kts by late evening as surface
high pressure builds into the area.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...VFR expected to continue.

Sunday night and Monday...Chance of rain showers with possible
restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Friday in Northeast
PA.

A cool and dry airmass over the region will continue to lead to
low relative humidity through Friday, with minimum humidity
levels around 15 to 25 percent during the afternoon while
temperatures turn slightly warmer than on Thursday. For Friday,
the wind may not be quite as strong as on Thursday, but will
still be gusty during the afternoon.

Though winds will be less gusty Saturday, humidity will again
be quite low, reaching around or below 30 percent for most of
the area. Chances of showers will return early next week.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JTC/MJM
NEAR TERM...HLC/JTC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MJM/MPH
FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1023 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-300230-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-
1023 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-300230-
Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-
Southern Wayne-
1023 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.