Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS La Crosse, WI

542 
WWUS53 KARX 050056
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
756 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

WIC043-050105-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-220705T0100Z/
Grant WI-
756 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened and 
is moving out of the warned area. Therefore, the warning will be 
allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4274 9062 4284 9061 4284 9043 4269 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 279DEG 29KT 4279 9043 

$$

Kurz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
631 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

Key Messages:

 - Storm redevelopment later this afternoon/evening

 - Steamy Tuesday, especially south of I90.

 - On and Off Rain Chances Through the Week

Early afternoon radar imagery has the leading edge of this
morning's line of thunderstorms now pushing into far eastern
Wisconsin. Stratiform showers with a few isolated storms have
continued for much of the area in wake of the passing line with some
isolated storms in northeast Iowa. The main concern becomes the
potential for storm redevelopment. Confidence is still on the lower
end for this storm redevelopment location with multiple weak
boundaries in place from the morning showers and storms. However
latest meso-model guidance has been targeting potential re-
development over parts of far southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin
and northeast Iowa...then extending southeastward tonight. Much
of southeast Minnesota could remain dry. Where the forecast could
go wrong is if storms fire up farther northwestward.  For example
in one scenario as hinted by a meso model, an MCV diving
southeastward from North Dakota could ignite convection across
much of southeast Minnesota then quickly advancing southeastward.
The SPC mesoscale graphics at 19Z show the +12 deg 700mb
temperatures building in across southwest MN and western Iowa with
SBCAPE building into the area.

If storms can develop, the severe potential could quickly escalate
with potential hail initially if cells remain discrete, then
becoming more of a wind threat as storms become more clustered.
While shear values of 40 knots in the lowest 3 km would be
supportive, there still remains some concern about the capping
inversion and if the forcing would be strong enough to overcome this
inhibition. Forecast soundings would suggest just over 100 J/kg of
CIN centered around 800 mb, and latest satellite imagery showing
some cumulus field development struggling to become glaciated across
northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. Another key player is how
well the low-level jet increases over the area and interacts with
the decent pool of instability centered more over Iowa.

Behind the shortwave tonight...the surface front is forecast to push
toward southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin, slowing down and
becoming stationary near northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin.  A
shortwave trough over North Dakota is forecast to drop southeast
toward Minnesota Tuesday afternoon.  Hot temperatures and humid
conditions are forecast south of the front with convergence along
the front increasing. Did issue a heat advisory where heat index
values of 100 to 105 degrees are expected, especially for parts of
northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. There may be some
isolated activity Tuesday morning, otherwise it should be mainly
dry until mid to late afternoon with scattered storms developing
and continuing into the evening. Areas along and south of the
front...south of I90 are in the slight risk for severe weather
Tuesday. Due to the high precipitable water pooled along the front
of 2 to 2.5 inches and deep cloud depths of 4 to 4.5km, where
storms form, locally heavy rain will be possible. This unsettled
pattern continues Tuesday night into Wednesday and Wednesday night
into Thursday. If the front pushes far enough to the south
Friday, this should take the organized showers and storms with it.

Saturday through Monday will have some mainly dry periods, however
as the ridge builds over the Plains, there are hints at a weak wave
in northwest flow aloft that could affect parts of the forecast are
Saturday afternoon.  The ridge breaks down Sunday night with a
chance for a few showers/storms ahead of the cold front.  A
reinforcing cold front arrives Tuesday with again spotty rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

Primary forecast concern for both TAF sites is widespread fog
overnight into the morning. Evening thunderstorms expected to
remain south of both sites tonight. Initial onset just after 06Z,
quickly thickening becoming IFR. While intermittent LIFR possible,
have only included IFR vis with current 00Z TAF issuance.
Precipitation chances return towards the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ053>055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

DISCUSSION...Peters/Zapotocny
AVIATION...JAR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
637 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-060345-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
637 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening, especially from
northeastern Iowa into southwestern Wisconsin. Severe risk
consists of hail and damaging winds as the main threats. All
storms could produce locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional storm chances through the week. A few could be strong,
potentially severe Tuesday and Wednesday...mostly south of
Interstate 90.

Hot Tuesday afternoon with heat indices in the 90s to near 105
degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

If storms redevelop this afternoon and evening, a few spotter
groups may be needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

nofwd

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
218 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW LA CROSSE         43.81N 91.25W
07/04/2022  M0.69 INCH       LA CROSSE          WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
219 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W PLATTEVILLE         42.74N 90.49W
07/04/2022  M1.00 INCH       GRANT              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
240 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE HOLMEN            43.93N 91.24W
07/04/2022  M0.75 INCH       LA CROSSE          WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE ONALASKA          43.90N 91.18W
07/04/2022  M0.89 INCH       LA CROSSE          WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

CZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
718 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

IAZ029-030-050100-
Clayton IA-Fayette IA-
718 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Clayton
and east central Fayette Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 717 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
West Union, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Elgin around 735 PM CDT.
  Volga around 750 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Volga River State
Park, Wadena, Brainard, Gunder, Albany, and Highland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 9183 4295 9181 4300 9144 4277 9150
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 274DEG 18KT 4291 9175

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kurz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
737 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

WIZ061-050100-
Grant WI-
737 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Grant
County through 800 PM CDT...

At 737 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Platteville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Platteville around 750 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Annaton, Arthur,
Lancaster Municipal Airport, Livingston, Platteville Airport, Union
and Ellenboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4276 9070 4294 9058 4291 9043 4267 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 279DEG 29KT 4279 9059

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kurz