Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
700 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Key Messages:

 - Heavy rain, strong winds, and hail possible this morning for
   much of the area

 - Severe weather threat increases this afternoon with hazards of
   tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds.

 - Quiet latter half of the week, seasonable temperatures for the
   weekend, and potential warm up into next week.

THIS MORNING'S STORMS:

Have been monitoring stronger storms overnight advecting from Iowa.
While these have been associated with a weak cold surface boundary,
the accompanying surface low will advect northeast out of Nebraska
early this morning, resulting in a subsequent round of strong to
severe storms. The guiding upper level pulse and associated
vorticity maxima will guide these more widespread storms from
northeast Iowa into southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin.
Instability is expected to remain elevated with a clingy cap
covering our forecast area; resulting in hazards of hail, heavy
rain, and strong winds. Precipitable water values will be near
2.0", +2.5 standardized anomalies according to NAEFS/ENS,
resulting in possible flash flooding. These storms are expected
to exit central Wisconsin into the late morning.

SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON:

In the afternoon, a higher impact event is still slated on tap as
the upper level trough and associated mid level vorticity lobes
slide by; driving a surface boundary from northwest to southeast.
The SBCAPE pool builds to ~3500 J/kg (HREF;15.00Z) with steepening
low level lapse rates, afternoon warming, and 70F surface dewpoint
temperatures. Sufficient shear will be aided by a 50kt 700mb jet,
providing some clockwise rotation for the hodograph in the 2-4km
height range. From 0-3km, HREF continues to include 40-50kt of
bulk shear, supportive of supercells. While initial model
soundings suggest 0-1km isn't strongly backed, mostly speed shear
(~20kts) in high resolution model hodographs, if a mesoscale low
forms, the risk for large tornadoes would increase given the
resultant increase in hodograph curvature. Regardless, a thin axis
of prefrontal 0-1km storm relative helicity values will approach
200 m2s2 from northeast Iowa into central Wisconsin. Very large
hail (2+") will also be possible with the large, fat CAPE profiles
and steep lapse rates within the growth hail zone. The storm
prediction center has continued an enhanced outlook for much of
the forecast area given the aforementioned parameters, including
30% hatching for wind/hail, and 10% for tornadoes.

THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

Latter half of the week continues to look less active as an
amplified upper level ridge traverses the Midwest. Temperatures
remain seasonable through the weekend. While this ridge persists
into early next week, deterministic models hint at possible
precipitation chances with sneaky upper level pulses sliding along
northwest flow. GEFS/EPS contains little agreement among members for
the 15.00Z forecast hour. Temperatures increase back to above
seasonable for the new work week, with the ECMWF Shift of Tails
focused to our north and west in central Minnesota.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be in the area through
the morning and into the afternoon. Some of the storms may be
strong to severe...especially early this afternoon. Did include
some preliminary wind gusts with the storms, however these may be
increased depending on the location of the stronger storms. The
storms appear to exit the TAF sites around 21 or 22z. VFR/MVFR
ceilings may accompany the storms this morning with some patchy
MVFR/IFR visibilities. Low level wind shear is expect later
tonight after 10Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Overnight, many areas across the forecast area received 1-2" of
precipitation. The present moist, tropical air mass contains high
precipitable water values, nearing 2 inches, and high warm cloud
layers, averaging 12,000 ft. Therefore, rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr
will be possible for much of the area today. Subsequent rounds of
precipitation this morning and afternoon will present flash
flooding concerns with HREF guidance suggesting localized 3"+
possible. Areas that have been affected by higher amounts in the
previous couple of days will be more susceptible to flash
flooding.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...Zapotocny
HYDROLOGY...JAR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
426 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-161000-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
426 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa...and southwest into central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible this morning. Primary
hazards are heavy rain with localized flooding, strong winds, and
hail.

Severe storms are likely this afternoon into the evening. Hazards
include very large hail, tornadoes, damaging winds, and heavy
rain. Localized flash flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

JAR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1038 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW COLWELL           43.17N 92.61W
06/15/2022                   FLOYD              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRANCHES AROUND 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWN
            WITH PEA SIZE HAIL. HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN
            5 MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1039 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     HAIL             1 S ALTA VISTA          43.17N 92.42W
06/15/2022  E0.88 INCH       CHICKASAW          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1042 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

MNZ088-095-096-WIZ032-033-041-151645-
Fillmore MN-Winona MN-Houston MN-Buffalo WI-Trempealeau WI-
La Crosse WI-
1042 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...Strong thunderstorms over southeast Minnesota at 1040 AM CDT...

At 1040 AM CDT, the public reported dime to quarter sized hail near
Fountain at 1035 am. Strong thunderstorms were near Rushford, or 14
miles southwest of Winona, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Winona, Preston, Holmen, Goodview, Rushford, Lewiston, Trempealeau,
Galesville, Fountain City, Lanesboro, Stockton, Fountain, Brice
Prairie, Dodge, Rushford Village, Wilson, Saratoga, Ettrick, Hart and
Fremont.

People attending Steamboat Days should seek safe shelter immediately!

This includes Interstate 90 in Minnesota between mile markers 235 and
269.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4402 9201 4426 9131 4403 9111 4361 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1540Z 237DEG 52KT 4388 9181

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Baumgardt