Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS La Crosse, WI

059 
WWUS53 KARX 120235
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
935 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNC157-120300-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-220512T0300Z/
Wabasha MN-
935 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WABASHA COUNTY...

At 934 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Frontenac to near Oronoco, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Wabasha County, including the following locations... Oak
Center, Bluff Valley Campground, Maple Springs, Gilbert Valley,
Zumbro Falls, Bear Valley and County Roads 31 And 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
Minnesota.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9255 4437 9243 4445 9243 4445 9224
      4444 9221 4442 9212 4441 9209 4419 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 275DEG 27KT 4446 9238 4419 9244 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Baumgardt

106 
WWUS53 KARX 120246
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
946 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNC157-120300-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-220512T0300Z/
Wabasha MN-
946 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WABASHA COUNTY...

At 946 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Stockholm to near Elgin, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Wabasha County, including the following locations... Oak
Center, Bluff Valley Campground, Maple Springs, Gilbert Valley,
Zumbro Falls, County Roads 31 And 2 and County Roads 33 And 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
Minnesota.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9243 4445 9243 4445 9224 4444 9221
      4442 9212 4441 9209 4423 9246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 275DEG 27KT 4446 9227 4418 9234 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Baumgardt

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
616 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Key Messages:

 - Periodic chances for strong/severe storms through the end of
   the week

 - Potential record breaking warmth tomorrow

 - Cooler heading into next week

Heading into Tonight:

Latest satellite imagery showed an MCV rotating over northeastern
Nebraska. This system is expected to be the main source of ignition
for additional convection heading into this evening as it continues
progressing northeastward. Radar imagery already showed
thunderstorms ahead of the MCV around southeastern Minnesota where a
surface boundary has set up. Across northern Iowa, temperatures were
in the upper 80s with dewpoints nearing mid 70s with southeasterly
winds. Northwest of the boundary in southeast Minnesota,
temperatures were only in the upper 60s to mid 70s with dewpoints
less than 70 degrees. As depicted in the CAM solutions, the MCV will
bring enough forcing to further enhance surface convergence along
that boundary supporting rapid thunderstorm development.

The convection is then slated to progress northeastward into this
evening with the MCV, but the question is how far southward along a
flanking line do additional storms develop with cold pool driven re-
enforcements. Current thoughts are that the northwestern edge of the
forecast area to be clipped by the southern extent of the
thunderstorms tonight. With plenty of instability to work as MUCAPE
values increase to around 3000 J/kg, the storm type and resulting
severe threat is dependent on how well deep and low layer shear can
align. Depending on these conditions, the primary threats would be
hail and wind, but isolated tornadoes cannot be completely ruled
out.

Thursday:

Under southwesterly flow and a persistent ridge off to the east, 850
mb temperatures increasing to near 20C supports the overall
anomalously warm surface conditions. NAEFS percentiles are maxed out
with temperatures at 850 mb reaching just shy of 3 standard
deviations above the climatological mean. Current forecast has daily
record breaking temperatures for much of the area.

Storm chances Thursday and Friday:

As a surface low over the plains Thursday afternoon moves
north/northeast towards the Dakotas, a line of storms is expected to
develop and intensify near the Minnesota/South Dakota border along
the cold front. The line of convection will propagate east towards
our forecast area arriving Thursday night. Arrival time varies
between models but the current consensus is between 11 PM and 1 AM.
Instability decreases considerably as the storms approach our area
and along with stable nighttime surface boundary layers, weakening
elevated storms are most favorable. A few lingering strong to severe
storms are possible in southeast Minnesota with hail and some strong
gusts but the best chance for large hail and damaging wind should
stay to our west.

Daytime heating on Friday will work to destabilize the boundary layer
ahead of the same cold front as it passes through the eastern half
of our forecast area. Wind shear looks rather marginal with the
11.12 NAM being most aggressive, but with CAPE values growing above
2000 J/kg during the afternoon, a hail/wind threat cannot be ruled
out. Any severe threat will become apparent as the timing of the
front and the shear fields are dialed in over the next couple days.

Temps cool Saturday into Sunday:

Moving into Saturday, the amplified ridge pattern aloft begins to
break down. A trend back towards or slightly below seasonal averages
looks favorable as we head into next with a broad upper level trough
starting to work its way overhead late Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday:

Large scale troughing will continue to move off to the east,
allowing for zonal flow or ridging to build into the area. It
appears there may be a dry period Tuesday with increasing chances of
showers and storms heading into midweek. While there are still some
differences in location and coverage, ensemble solutions agree on a
chance of showers and thunderstorms returning as the surface warm
front moves north and moisture transport increases into the region.

More seasonable temperatures are in store. Ensemble solutions
suggest highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, keeping closer to normal
temperatures for May. However, there is still some spread in these
high temperatures, especially as we move further through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the TAF period.
Haze will continue to impact KLSE for a few more hours this
evening with a minor visibility reduction to 6SM. Tonight,
thunderstorms will develop to the north and west of the TAF sites.
These storms could move closer to the airports, so have added in
VCTS. Storms and lower clouds should clear out by late tonight,
keeping both sites at VFR conditions for the period. However,
with ample moisture at KLSE, ceilings have a chance at lowering to
MVFR tomorrow morning. Not high enough confidence to include this
in the TAFs, but did lower ceils to low VFR.

Otherwise, winds will be from the southeast/south. Gusts up to 28
kts are possible late tomorrow morning through the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...KAA/Peters/EMS
AVIATION...Dahl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
459 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

IAZ010-011-029-030-MNZ096-WIZ017-029-033-034-041>044-053>055-061-
121000-
Winneshiek-Allamakee-Fayette-Clayton-Houston-Taylor-Clark-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-
Richland-Grant-
459 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota...and southwest into central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An isolated storm is possible. Organized severe weather is not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered storms are possible late Thursday night. A few could be
strong with a hail threat.

More storms are possible Friday afternoon into the evening. A few
could be strong to severe with a hail and wind threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few spotter groups may be needed over the next few days.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ079-086>088-094-095-WIZ032-121000-
Mitchell-Howard-Floyd-Chickasaw-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-
Mower-Fillmore-Buffalo-
459 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered storms are possible. A few could become strong,
potentially severe this evening. Threats include hail and wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A line of strong to severe storms will approach the area from the
west late Thursday evening, weakening as they near the
Mississippi River. The main threats will be large hail and
damaging winds.

More storms are possible Friday afternoon into the evening. A few
could be strong, possibly severe, with a hail and wind threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few spotter groups may be needed over the next few days.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Rieck

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
823 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNZ086-087-094-120245-
Olmsted MN-Dodge MN-Mower MN-
823 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...Strong to severe thunderstorms will be moving into southeast
Minnesota between 9 and 10 pm...

At 816 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported severe
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Waseca to Elmore.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, but possibly gusting 60 to 70
         mph.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters and airport wind sensors have
         reported wind gusts to 70 mph just west of the Interstate
         35 corridor in southcentral Minnesota.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down trees and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Prepare now for damaging winds and possible severe weather.

Locations impacted by these storms should include Dodge Center,
Austin, Hayfield, and Rochester.

Other locations include Brookside Campground, Mayville, Rochester
Airport and Graves Landing Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9304 4419 9247 4350 9245 4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 246DEG 39KT 4413 9357 4352 9408

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Baumgardt