Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
556 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Key Messages:

 - Threat for flooding tonight in the wake of this afternoon's
   strong to severe storms.

 - Cooler temperatures on deck for next week.

 - Rain chances return Tuesday, storms possible.

Possible Flooding Threat Tonight:

In the wake of this afternoon's strong to severe storms, flooding
could become a threat. If storms take up a training pattern, the
same locations could see multiple rounds of precipitation,
increasing their risk for flooding impacts. HREF has continued to
suggest a maximum rainfall axis along Interstate 90, though
depending on storm tracks, this location could shift. The max total
solution from HREF suggests that 5+ inches are possible, with some
areas possibly receiving upwards of 7 inches of rain. Probability
matched mean runs orient the axis similarly, but leans towards a 2-4
inch solution, with some spots of 5+ inches possible. Again, these
amounts and impacted locations could shift depending on how storms
orient themselves this afternoon into this evening. But with
training storms expected, lingering flooding is certainly a risk for
the overnight hours.

Cooler Next Week, Rain Chances Return Tuesday:

Cooler temperatures are on the way next week with highs in the upper
70s and lower 80s as the area settles into a northwest flow pattern.
The EC has been trending towards these cooler temperatures for the
past couple runs, adding to confidence. These highs would be a bit
below normal (around 5 degrees) for this time of year, but also a
nice respite from warmer temperatures we have seen this past week!

Precipitation chances return Tuesday as bits of shortwave energy and
a cold front move across the area. Still some timing and spatial
differences between ensemble and deterministic models, but in
general the precip looks to arrive in the afternoon to evening.
There are some thunderstorm chances associated with the showers,
though storm parameters are generally more favorable to the south of
the area. Higher CAPE values are to the south, but GEFS suggests a
20-40% chance of exceeding 1000 J/kg in the southern half of the
area. Timing of the front would impact if this instability can be
utilized in the development of storms, but peak time for CAPE values
appears to be Tuesday evening. More favorable deep layer shear is to
the west, which again, depending on timing, could be a contributor
to storm development in the west. GEFS suggests a 10-20% chance of
PWATs greater than 2 inches across the area, with higher values to
the south. Deterministic models come to a solution of about 1.5-1.75
inches across the area, which would help fuel storms and could
contribute to the potential for locally heavy rain. However, with
varying model solutions, not high confidence with that yet. Overall,
severe risk still appears low. As for rainfall totals, the EC
suggests a couple tenths with lower amounts towards the north,
though this will be more refined as the event nears.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

One cluster of storms have passed through and now awaiting for
redevelopment of convection as low level jet increases and work
along boundary that has been pushed south. While general VFR
conditions should prevail, will depend on where next east-west
orientated line of storms tracks that could bring temporary IFR
ceilings and visibilities.

Behind this wave, a bit unclear on how low ceilings might become but
banking on a more optimistic approach with less cloud cover and
trended things that direction with increase in northwest winds on
Sunday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ061.

MN...NONE.
IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ029-030.

&&

DISCUSSION...Dahl
AVIATION...Shea

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
633 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-241200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
633 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Additional thunderstorms may form this evening, mainly along and
south of Interstate 90. The primary threat from these new storms
would be heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds.

If these storms track across areas that received heavy rainfall
earlier in the day, the threat for flash flooding will increase.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Storms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time,
organized severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is no longer expected. Rainfall
reports are appreciated, especially with the 2nd round of storms
tonight.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Shea

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