Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
210 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Key Messages:

 - Threat for flooding tonight in the wake of this afternoon's
   strong to severe storms.

 - Cooler temperatures on deck for next week.

 - Rain chances return Tuesday, storms possible.

Possible Flooding Threat Tonight:

In the wake of this afternoon's strong to severe storms, flooding
could become a threat. If storms take up a training pattern, the
same locations could see multiple rounds of precipitation,
increasing their risk for flooding impacts. HREF has continued to
suggest a maximum rainfall axis along Interstate 90, though
depending on storm tracks, this location could shift. The max total
solution from HREF suggests that 5+ inches are possible, with some
areas possibly receiving upwards of 7 inches of rain. Probability
matched mean runs orient the axis similarly, but leans towards a 2-4
inch solution, with some spots of 5+ inches possible. Again, these
amounts and impacted locations could shift depending on how storms
orient themselves this afternoon into this evening. But with
training storms expected, lingering flooding is certainly a risk for
the overnight hours.

Cooler Next Week, Rain Chances Return Tuesday:

Cooler temperatures are on the way next week with highs in the upper
70s and lower 80s as the area settles into a northwest flow pattern.
The EC has been trending towards these cooler temperatures for the
past couple runs, adding to confidence. These highs would be a bit
below normal (around 5 degrees) for this time of year, but also a
nice respite from warmer temperatures we have seen this past week!

Precipitation chances return Tuesday as bits of shortwave energy and
a cold front move across the area. Still some timing and spatial
differences between ensemble and deterministic models, but in
general the precip looks to arrive in the afternoon to evening.
There are some thunderstorm chances associated with the showers,
though storm parameters are generally more favorable to the south of
the area. Higher CAPE values are to the south, but GEFS suggests a
20-40% chance of exceeding 1000 J/kg in the southern half of the
area. Timing of the front would impact if this instability can be
utilized in the development of storms, but peak time for CAPE values
appears to be Tuesday evening. More favorable deep layer shear is to
the west, which again, depending on timing, could be a contributor
to storm development in the west. GEFS suggests a 10-20% chance of
PWATs greater than 2 inches across the area, with higher values to
the south. Deterministic models come to a solution of about 1.5-1.75
inches across the area, which would help fuel storms and could
contribute to the potential for locally heavy rain. However, with
varying model solutions, not high confidence with that yet. Overall,
severe risk still appears low. As for rainfall totals, the EC
suggests a couple tenths with lower amounts towards the north,
though this will be more refined as the event nears.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Ongoing thunderstorms to the west will move into the area at the
beginning of the TAF period. When thunderstorms reach the
airports, expect deteriorated visibilities and lower ceilings.
Periods of MVFR conditions are expected with the storms. Winds
will also be gusty, particularly at KRST where gusts could be as
high as 50 kts. Showers and storms will linger into the late
evening at both sites before clearing out overnight. Ceilings
should remain lower overnight before skies become clearer tomorrow
morning. South/southeast winds will become more west/northwest and
less gusty overnight.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ061.

MN...NONE.
IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ018-019-029-030.

&&

DISCUSSION...Dahl
AVIATION...Dahl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
407 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-241315-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
407 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A potentially significant severe weather event has become
increasingly likely for this afternoon and evening. Damaging
winds in excess of 70 mph, large hail near 2", and heavy rainfall
are the main threats. Cannot rule out the possibility for
isolated tornadoes. Repeated rounds of heavy rain would increase
the threat for localized flash and urban flooding. There are some
questions on where the highest impacts may occur and this could
still shift north or south.

Afternoon and early evening heat indices around 100 are expected
this afternoon but mainly for areas south of highway 18 across
portions of northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Storms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time,
organized severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
259 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N RUSHFORD            43.84N 91.75W
07/23/2022  E50 MPH          FILLMORE           MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
313 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     TSTM WND GST     NODINE                  43.90N 91.45W
07/23/2022  E45 MPH          WINONA             MN   PUBLIC

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W LEWISTON            43.98N 91.93W
07/23/2022                   WINONA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN

&&

SHEA

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